Robustness of the holistic seismic risk evaluation in urban centers using the USRi

The Urban Seismic Risk index (USRi) published in a previous article (Carreño et al., Nat Hazards 40:137–172, 2007) is a composite indicator that measures risk from an integrated perspective and guides decision-making for identifying the main interdisciplinary factors of vulnerability to be reduced or intervened. The first step of the method is the evaluation of the potential physical damage (hard approach) as a result of the convolution of the seismic hazard with the physical vulnerability of buildings and infrastructure. Subsequently, a set of social context conditions that aggravate the physical effects is also considered (soft approach). According to this procedure, the physical risk index is evaluated for each unit of analysis from existing loss scenarios, whereas the total risk index is obtained by multiplying the former index by an impact factor using an aggravating coefficient, based on variables associated with the socio-economic conditions of each unit of analysis. The USRi has been developed using the underlying holistic and multi-hazard approach of the Urban Risk Index framework proposed for the evaluation of disaster risk in different megacities worldwide. This article presents the sensitivity analysis of the index to different parameters such as input data, weights and transformation functions used for the scaling or normalization of variables. This analysis has been performed using the Monte Carlo simulation to validate the robustness of this composite indicator, understanding as robustness how the cities maintain the ranking as well as predefined risk level ranges, when compared with the deterministic results of risk. Results are shown for different cities of the world.     

The role of fluids in the formation of talc deposits of Rema area,Kumaun Lesser Himalaya

Talc deposits of Rema area in the Kumaun Inner Lesser Himalaya are hosted within high magnesium carbonates of the Proterozoic Deoban Formation. These deposits occur as irregular patches or pockets mainly within magnesite bodies, along with impurities of magnesite, dolomite and clinochlore. Textures represent different phases of reactions between magnesite and silica to produce talc. Petrography, XRD and geochemistry reveal that the talc has primarily developed at the expense of magnesite and silica, leaving dolomite largely un-reacted. Early fluid inclusions in magnesite and dolomite associated with talc are filled with H₂O+NaCl+KCl ± MgCl₂ ± CaCl₂ fluids, which represent basin fluid system during diagenesis of carbonates. Their varied degree of re-equilibration was although not pervasive but points to increased burial, and hence requires careful interpretation. H₂O-CO₂ fluid with XCO₂ between 0.06 and 0.12 was equilibrated with talc formation. The reaction dolomite+quartz → talc was not extensive because T-X_CO2 was not favourable, and talc was developed principally after magnesite+quartz.     

Mesoproterozoic (1.47–1.44 Ga) orogenic magmatism in Fennoscandia; Baddeleyite U–Pb dating of a suite of massif-type anorthosite in S. Sweden

The Jönköping Anorthositic Suite (JAS) in S. Sweden has characteristics typical for (Proterozoic) massif-type anorthosites. The interstitial liquid of these plagioclase-porphyritic rocks solidified at 1,455 ± 6 Ma, as determined by U–Pb isotope analysis of baddeleyite. The JAS developed during a regional 1.47–1.44 event in Fennoscandia that generated widespread mafic magmatism (basalts, and diabase dykes and sills) in the north and emplacement of felsic plutons in the south. The event of 1.47–1.44 Ga magmatism in Fennoscandia largely coincides in age with dynamic high-grade metamorphism in SW Sweden and was probably related to convergent active-margin processes during the Danopolonian orogeny.     

Intrusion versus inversion—a 3D density model of the southern rim of the Northwest German Basin

An unsolved problem of regional importance for both the evolution and structure of the Northwest German Basin is the existence or non-existence of the so-called Bramsche Massif. Explaining the nature of this massif and the cause of a related strong, positive Bouguer anomaly (Bramsche Anomaly) is critical. In the study described here, we tested an existing “intrusion model” against a newer “inversion model” in the southern Northwest German Basin. In the intrusion model, the strongly-positive Bouguer anomaly represents the gravity effect of an intrusion at depths between 6 and 10 km. More recent interpretations invoke tectonic inversion rather than intrusion to explain increased burial and the low level of hydrocarbon maturity found in boreholes. We tested these different interpretations by constructing 3D forward density models to 15 km depth. The intrusion model was updated and adjusted to incorporate recent data and we also modelled pre-Zechstein structures using different scenarios. The final model has a very good fit between measured and modelled gravity fields. Based on currently available seismic and structural models, as well as borehole density measurements, we show that the positive Bouguer anomaly cannot be modeled without a high-density, intrusive-like body at depth. However, further in-sight into the crustal structures of the Bramsche region requires more detailed investigations. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Forecasting of groundwater level in hard rock region using artificial neural network

In hardrock terrain where seasonal streams are not perennial source of freshwater, increase in ground water exploitation has already resulted here in declining ground water levels and deteriorating its’ quality. The aquifer system has shown signs of depletion and quality contamination. Thus, to secure water for the future, water resource estimation and management has urgently become the need of the hour. In order to manage groundwater resources, it is vital to have a tool to predict the aquifer response for a given stress (abstraction and recharge). Artificial neural network (ANN) has surfaced as a proven and potential methodology to forecast the groundwater levels. In this paper, Feed-Forward Network based ANN model is used as a method to predict the groundwater levels. The models are trained with the inputs collected from field and then used as prediction tool for various scenarios of stress on aquifer. Such predictions help in developing better strategies for sustainable development of groundwater resources.     

The bubbles or the boiling pot? An ecosystemic approach to culture,environment and quality of life

For the diagnosis and prognosis of the problems of quality of life, a multidisciplinary ecosystemic approach encompasses four dimensions of being-in-the-world, as donors and recipients: intimate, interactive, social and biophysical. Social, cultural and environmental vulnerabilities are understood and dealt with, in different circumstances of space and time, as the conjugated effect of all dimensions of being-in-the-world, as they induce the events (deficits and assets), cope with consequences (desired or undesired) and contribute for change. Instead of fragmented and reduced representations of reality, diagnosis and prognosis of cultural, educational, environmental and health problems considers the connections (assets) and ruptures (deficits) between the different dimensions, providing a planning model to develop and evaluate research, teaching programmes, public policies and field projects. The methodology is participatory, experiential and reflexive; heuristic-hermeneutic processes unveil cultural and epistemic paradigms that orient subject-object relationships; giving people the opportunity to reflect on their own realities, engage in new experiences and find new ways to live better in a better world. The proposal is a creative model for thought and practice, providing many opportunities for discussion, debate and development of holistic projects integrating different scientific domains (social sciences, psychology, education, philosophy, etc.). Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

An extension to the DRASTIC model to assess groundwater vulnerability to pollution: application to the Haouz aquifer of Marrakech (Morocco)

An extension to the DRASTIC model is proposed in order to assess aquifer vulnerability to pollution. In contrast to the DRASTIC model, which considers the unsaturated and saturated zones together and computes a global intrinsic vulnerability index, the suggested approach discriminates between the aquifer vertical vulnerability (a concept related to the pollutant percolation) and the groundwater susceptibility (a concept that depends on the behaviour and uses of the groundwater). This approach is applied to the Haouz aquifer (Morocco) that supplies water to the Marrakech area. This aquifer is widely overexploited and there is evidence that the groundwater quality is threatened by various sources of pollution. Evaluation of the vertical vulnerability indicates that the aquifer mainly presents a moderate-to-weak vertical vulnerability. The zones potentially most favourable to pollutant percolation are mainly located in Central Haouz, along or near the surface wadis. The aquifer susceptibility is high in places located near the N’Fis, Baaja and Issil wadis. Everywhere else, low-to-moderate susceptibility is observed. This new approach therefore enables areas of vertical vulnerability and areas of susceptibility to be delineated separately. As a result, it constitutes a valuable decision-making tool for optimising the management of aquifer water resources and land-use planning.     

Beating words to life: subtitles,assemblage(s)capes,expression

Ostensibly, subtitles in films serve as linguistic approximations of meaning. Expectedly then, much of the debate surrounding subtitling has been concerned with representational accuracy, fidelity and authenticity. In this article I argue that by encountering subtitles as affective bodily expressions, as opposed to approximate representations of pre-existent meanings or intentions, filmic experiences may be(come) transformed and differently transformational. As a result, meaning and accuracy in subtitles as superimposed signifiers or static representations become secondary to subtitles as spatially affective- and expressive-movements intimately part of filmic scapes. The creative use of subtitling in Bekmambetov’s Russian language film Night Watch (Nochnoy dozor; 2006 [2004]) is discussed.

Estimation of snow and glacial melt contribution through stable isotopes and assessment of its impact on river morphology through stream power approach in two Himalayan river basins

The impact of increased temperature on the Third Pole, as the Himalayas is referred to, and the likely cascading impacts on the general downstream hydrology have been widely noted. However, the impact on fluvial geomorphology has not received specific attention. Change in the glacial domain in terms of melt increase will change discharge and sediment flux into fluvial system, which will induce changes in fluvial processes and forms. The present work attempts to study this process-based glacio-fluvial coupling in the two neighbouring glaciated river basins in the Northwest Himalaya, viz., the Sutlej and the Yamuna river basins till the mountain front. A total of 194 samples of river, tributary and groundwater of pre- and post-monsoon seasons in the two river basins were analysed for stable isotopes. The trend of δ¹⁸O and electrical conductivity along the mainstream gives qualitative idea on the influence of headwaters in the downstream of the catchment thereby allowing inference on melt contribution. Further, two component mixing model using stable oxygen isotope of two seasons water samples showed that melt contributes about 41.1–66.8 and 6.6–10.6% at different points to the total river discharge in the Sutlej and the Tons River (the glaciated, major tributary of the Yamuna River) basins, respectively. For different scenarios of increase in melt, stream power increase in the Sutlej River basin is significant as opposed to the Tons River. River channel in the Sutlej River basin will be significantly more impacted in comparison with the Yamuna River system.     

Isotope evidence for quantifying river evaporation and recharge processes in the lower reaches of the Yellow River

Evaporation and recharge are important hydrological processes in the water cycle. However, accurately quantifying these two processes of river remains to be difficult due to their spatial heterogeneity and the limitations of traditional methods. In this study, a more reliable method of stable isotopes of δ ¹⁸O and δ ²H based on the Rayleigh distillation equation and mass conservation was used to estimate the evaporation and recharge of the rivers in the lower reaches of the Yellow River, North China Plain. Comprehensive sampling campaigns including 30 surface water samples from 10 rivers, 33 groundwater samples from domestic and observation wells, and two Yellow River water samples were conducted. The results showed that the evaporation proportion of the rivers based on δ ¹⁸O and δ ²H both averaged 14.4%. The evaporation proportions in each river did not completely follow a linear increasing trend along the flow path. This phenomenon could be mainly explained by the different proportions of recharge from groundwater and Yellow River water. With closer to the Yellow river, evaporation of the rivers decreased while the recharge by the Yellow River increased. Regression equations based on δ ¹⁸O, δ ²H, and their average revealed that the evaporation proportion respectively increased by 1.02, 0.79, and 0.90% with the increase in the distance to the Yellow River per 10 km. On the contrary, the recharge proportion decreased by 7.68, 5.51, and 6.59%, respectively. In addition, using δ ¹⁸O rather than δ ²H was more reliable in studying the spatial influence of the Yellow River on evaporation and recharge. Sensitivity analysis showed that the evaporation model was most sensitive to isotopic composition, rather than to air temperature or relative humidity. The results of this study provide insights into the determination of river hydrological processes and the management of water resources.