Tropical drought patterns and their linkages to large-scale climate variability over Peninsular Malaysia

Ocean–atmosphere modes of climate variability in the Pacific and Indian oceans, as well as monsoons, regulate the regional wet and dry episodes in tropical regions. However, how those modes of climate variability, and their interactions, lead to spatial differences in drought patterns over tropical Asia at seasonal to interannual time scales remains unclear. This study aims to analyse the hydroclimate processes for both short- and long-term spatial drought patterns (3-, 6, 12- and 24-months) over Peninsular Malaysia using the Standardized Precipitation Index, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, and Palmer Drought Severity Index. Besides that, a generalized least squares regression is used to explore underlying circulation mechanisms of these spatio-temporal drought patterns. The tested drought indices indicate a tendency towards wetter conditions over Peninsular Malaysia. Based on principal component analysis, distinct spatio-temporal drought patterns are revealed, suggesting North–South and East–West gradients in drought distribution. The Pacific El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the South Western Indian Ocean (SWIO) variability, and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) are significant contributors to the observed spatio-temporal variability in drought. Both the ENSO and the SWIO modulate the North–South gradient in drought conditions over Peninsular Malaysia, while the QBO contributes more to the East–West gradient. Through modulating regional moisture fluxes, the warm phases of the ENSO and the SWIO, and the western phases of the QBO weaken the southwest and northeast monsoon, leading to precipitation deficits and droughts over Peninsular Malaysia. The East–West or North–South gradients in droughts are related to the middle mountains blocking southwest and northeast moisture fluxes towards Peninsular Malaysia. In addition, the ENSO and QBO variations are significantly leading to short-term droughts (less than a year), while the SWIO is significantly associated with longer-duration droughts (2 years or more). Overall, this work demonstrates how spatio-temporal drought patterns in tropical regions are related to monsoons and moisture transports affected by the oscillations over the Pacific and Indian oceans, which is important for national water risk management.     

The role of landscape morphology on soil moisture variability in semi-arid ecosystems

Previous studies on semi-arid ecosystems have shown high values of soil moisture variability (SMV) primarily induced by the combined effects of non-uniform precipitation, incoming solar radiation, and soil and vegetation properties. However, the relative impact of these various factors on SMV has been difficult to evaluate due to limited availability of field data. In addition, only a limited number of studies have analysed the role of landscape morphology on SMV. Here we use numerical simulations of a simple hydrological model, the Bucket Grassland Model, to systematically analyse the effect of each contributing factor on SMV on two different landscape morphologies. The two different landform morphologies represent landscapes dominated respectively by either diffusive erosion or fluvial erosion processes. We conducted various simulations driven by a stochastically generated 100-year climate time series, which is long enough to capture climatic fluctuations, in order to understand the effect of various soil moisture controlling factors on the spatiotemporal SMV. Our modelling results show that the fluvial dominated landscapes promote higher spatial SMV than the diffusive dominated ones. Further, the role of landform morphology on SMV is more pronounced in regions where the spatial variability of incoming solar radiation and precipitation is high.     

Forms and drivers of annual streamflow variability in the headwaters of Canadian Prairies during the 20th century

Headwater streamflows in the Rocky Mountain foothills are the key to water availability in the Canadian Prairies. Headwater characteristics, however, have been and continue to be subject to major variability and change. Here, we identify various forms of change in the annual mean streamflow and timing of the annual peak and attempt to distinguish between the effects of multiple drivers using a generalized regression scheme. Our investigation shows that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is the main driver of significant monotonic trends and shifts in the central tendency of annual mean streamflow in major headwaters. In parallel, the cumulative effects of non‐PDO climatic drivers and human‐induced land use and land management are the main causes of significant variations in the timing of the annual peak. Additional analyses show that time sequences with significant trends in annual mean streamflow and timing of the annual peak coincide with those that show significant trends in the PDO or non‐PDO component of the air temperature, respectively. The natural streamflow characteristics are substantially perturbed by anthropogenic river flow regulation, depending on the form of change and/or the level of regulation. Evidence suggests that the general tendency of human regulation is to alleviate the severity of above‐ and below‐average streamflow conditions; however, it may also intensify the variability in natural streamflow characteristics during drier years and/or those with earlier annual peak timing. These are circumstances to which the regional water resource system is vulnerable. Our findings are important for the provision of effective regional water resource management in the Canadian Prairies and contribute to a better understanding of the complex interactions between natural and anthropogenic drivers in coupled human–water systems.     

Organic matter in space: from star dust to the Solar System

Organic compounds of high degree of complexity are now known to be widespread in the Universe, ranging from objects in our Solar System to distant galaxies. Through the techniques of millimeter-wave spectroscopy, over 140 molecules have been identified through their rotational transitions. Space infrared spectroscopy has detected the stretching and bending modes of compounds with aromatic and aliphatic structures. Analyses of samples of meteorites, comets, asteroids, and interplanetary dust also revealed a rich content of organic substances, some of which could be of extra-solar origin. We review the current state of understanding of the origin, evolution, nature, and distribution of organic matter in space. Also discussed are a number of unexplained astronomical phenomena whose origins could be traced to organic carriers.     

Temporal trends in δ18O composition of precipitation in Germany: insights from time series modelling and trend analysis

Temporal and spatial variations of stable oxygen (¹⁸O) and hydrogen (²H) isotope measurements in precipitation act as important proxies for changing hydro‐meteorological and regional and global climate patterns. Temporal trends in time series of the stable isotope composition in precipitation were rarely observed, and they are poorly understood. These might be a result of a lack of proper trend detection tools and effort for exploring trend processes. Here, we investigate temporal trends of δ¹⁸O in precipitation at 17 observation stations in Germany between 1978 and 2009. We test if significant trends in the isotope time series from different models can be observed. Mann–Kendall trend tests are applied on the isotope series, using general multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrate moving average (ARIMA) models, which account for first and higher order serial correlations. Effects of temperature, precipitation, and geographic parameters on isotope trends are also investigated in the proposed models. To benchmark our proposed approach, the ARIMA results are compared with a trend‐free pre‐whitening procedure, the state of the art method for removing the first order autocorrelation in environmental trend studies. Moreover, we further explore whether higher order serial correlations in isotope series affects our trend results. Overall, three out of the 17 stations show significant changes when higher order autocorrelation are adjusted, and four show a significant trend when temperature and precipitation effects are considered. The significant trends in the isotope time series generally occur only at low elevation stations. Higher order autoregressive processes are shown to be important in the isotope time series analysis. Results suggest that the widely used trend analysis with only the first order autocorrelation adjustment may not adequately take account of the high order autocorrelated processes in the stable isotope series. The investigated time series analysis method including higher autocorrelation and external climate variable adjustments is shown to be a better alternative. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Micromechanical analysis of the failure process of brittle rock

The failure process of brittle rock submitted to a compression state of stress with different confining pressures is investigated in this paper based on discrete element method (DEM) simulations. In the DEM model, the rock sample is represented by bonding rigid particles at their contact points. The numerical model is first calibrated by comparing the macroscopic response with the macroscopic response of Beishan granite obtained from laboratory tests. After the validation of numerical model in terms of macroscopic responses, the failure process of the DEM model under unconfined and confined compression is studied in micro‐scale in detail. The contact force network and its relation to the development of micro‐cracks and evolution of major fractures are studied. Confining pressure will prohibit the development of tensile cracks and hence alter the failure patterns. An in‐depth analysis of micro‐scale response is carried out, including the orientation distribution and probability density of stress acting on parallel bonds, the effect of particle size heterogeneity on bond breakage and the evolution of fabric tensor and coordination number of parallel bond. The proposed micromechanical analysis will allow us to extract innovative features emerged from the stresses and crack evolution in brittle rock failure process. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sidereal filtering based on single differences for mitigating GPS multipath effects on short baselines

Carrier-phase multipath effects are one of the most significant error sources in precise Global Positioning System (GPS) positioning applications. A new sidereal filtering algorithm based on single differences is developed to mitigate multipath effects for short-baseline high-rate GPS applications such as structural deformation monitoring. This method differs from traditional sidereal filtering in that our method operates on the single differences rather than the coordinates or double differences. A multipath model for the single differences on the reference day is established for each satellite and is used to remove multipath errors from observations of subsequent days by taking advantage of the sidereal repeatability of multipath signals. Using both simulated and real GPS observations, we demonstrate that this method is insensitive to different weighting strategies used in computing single differences from double differences. Applying the proposed method can reduce the root mean square (RMS) of positioning noises by 82% on average. Compared to sidereal filtering (in either coordinate or double differences domain) and aspect repeat time adjustment, this method can further reduce the RMS values by 13 and 7%, respectively. Wavelet spectra have shown that the proposed method is more effective in mitigating multipath errors of both long and short periods. This method is also more advantageous in that it is applicable when different GPS satellites are observed on different days.     

Shock-capturing Boussinesq-type model for nearshore wave processes

This paper describes the formulation and validation of a nearshore wave model for tropical coastal environment. The governing Boussinesq-type equations include the conservative form of the nonlinear shallow-water equations for shock capturing. A Riemann solver supplies the inter-cell flux and bathymetry source term, while a Godunov-type scheme integrates the evolution variables in time. The model handles wave breaking through momentum conservation with energy dissipation based on an eddy viscosity concept. The computed results show very good agreement with laboratory data for wave propagation over a submerged bar, wave breaking and runup on plane beaches as well as wave transformation over fringing reefs. The model accurately describes transition between supercritical and subcritical flows as well as development of dispersive waves in the processes.     

Periodic orbits of the general three-body problem for the Sun-Jupiter-Saturn system

Two families of symmetric periodic orbits of the planar, general, three-body problem are presented. The masses of the three bodies include ratios equal to the Sun-Jupiter-Saturn system and the periods of the orbits of Jupiter and Saturn are in a 25 resonance. The (linear) stability of the orbits are studied in relation to eccentricity and mass variations. The generation of the two families of periodic orbits follows a systematic approach and employs (numerical) continuation from periodic orbits of the first and second kind in the circular restricted problem to the elliptic restricted problem and from the circular and elliptic problems to the general problem through bifurcation phenomena relating the three dynamical systems. The approach also provides insight into the evolutionary process of periodic orbits continued from the restricted problems to the general problem.     

Modeling of tropical cyclone winds and waves for emergency management

This paper compares three commonly used parametric models of tropical cyclone winds and evaluates their application in the wave model WAM. The parametric models provide surface wind fields based on best tracks of tropical cyclones and WAM simulates wave growth based on the wind energy input. The model package is applied to hindcast the wind and wave conditions of Hurricane Iniki, which directly hit the Hawaiian Island of Kauai in 1992. The parametric wind fields are evaluated against buoy and aircraft measurements made during the storm. A sensitivity analysis determines the spatial and spectral resolution needed to model the wave field of Hurricane Iniki. Comparisons of the modeled waves with buoy measurements indicate good agreement within the core of the storm and demonstrate the capability of the model package as a forecasting tool for emergency management.