Current status of ENSO prediction skill in coupled ocean–atmosphere models

The overall skill of ENSO prediction in retrospective forecasts made with ten different coupled GCMs is investigated. The coupled GCM datasets of the APCC/CliPAS and DEMETER projects are used for four seasons in the common 22 years from 1980 to 2001. As a baseline, a dynamic-statistical SST forecast and persistence are compared. Our study focuses on the tropical Pacific SST, especially by analyzing the NINO34 index. In coupled models, the accuracy of the simulated variability is related to the accuracy of the simulated mean state. Almost all models have problems in simulating the mean and mean annual cycle of SST, in spite of the positive influence of realistic initial conditions. As a result, the simulation of the interannual SST variability is also far from perfect in most coupled models. With increasing lead time, this discrepancy gets worse. As one measure of forecast skill, the tier-1 multi-model ensemble (MME) forecasts of NINO3.4 SST have an anomaly correlation coefficient of 0.86 at the month 6. This is higher than that of any individual model as well as both forecasts based on persistence and those made with the dynamic-statistical model. The forecast skill of individual models and the MME depends strongly on season, ENSO phase, and ENSO intensity. A stronger El Niño is better predicted. The growth phases of both the warm and cold events are better predicted than the corresponding decaying phases. ENSO-neutral periods are far worse predicted than warm or cold events. The skill of forecasts that start in February or May drops faster than that of forecasts that start in August or November. This behavior, often termed the spring predictability barrier, is in part because predictions starting from February or May contain more events in the decaying phase of ENSO.     

Long-Term variability of the indian summer monsoon and related parameters

The long-term variability of the Indian summer monsoon rain-fall and related regional and global param-eters are studied. The cubic spline is used as a digital filter to smooth the high frequency signals in the time series of the various parameters. The length of the data series varies from 95 to 115 years during the period 1871-1985. The parameters studied within the monsoon system are: (a) monsoon rainfall of the country as a whole; (b) number of break-monsoon days during July and August; (c) number of storms/ depressions in Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea during summer monsoon season; and (d) dates of onset of summer monsoon over South Kerala Coast. The parameters studied outside the monsoon system are: (a) the Wright’s Southern Oscillation Index (June-July-August); (b) the January mean Northern Hemi-spheric surface air temperature anomaly; and (c) the East-equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly.In order to examine the variability under various degrees of the smoothing, the series are filtered with splines of 50% variance reduction frequency of one cycle per 10, 20 and 30 years. It is observed that the smoothed time series of the parameters within the monsoon system comprise a common slowly varying com-ponent in an episodic manner distinctly showing the excess and deficient rainfall epochs. The change of intercorrelations between the time series with increasing degree of smoothing throws some light on the time scales of the dominant interactions. The relation between Southern Oscillation and East equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature and the Indian summer monsoon seems to be dominant on the interannual scale. The low frequency variations are found to have significantly contributed to the instability of the correlations of monsoon rainfall with parameters outside the monsoon system.     

Observing changes in groundwater resource using hydro-chemical and isotopic parameters: a case study from Bist Doab,Punjab

The continuous and large-scale abstraction of groundwater has created a groundwater depletion problem in several parts of the Punjab state including Bist Doab, the interfluve region of Beas and Satluj rivers. In the present study, a few important parameters, viz. water level, stable isotope, EC, temperature, groundwater age, that can be used to fingerprint the over-exploitation of groundwater have been examined. It has been observed that with the increase in over-exploitation, the yield of shallow aquifer is progressively getting reduced and as a result forcing the farmers to sink their wells to deeper depths. With abstraction of deeper aquifer, the storage of old groundwater at the deeper aquifer is declining and getting replaced by induced accelerated inflow of young water from the recharge zone and the overlying shallow aquifer. The signatures of the modern water have been observed in the data analyzed for isotopic, hydro-chemical facies, electrical conductivity and temperature of water from deeper aquifer. The study has identified the usefulness of these parameters for identifying groundwater over-exploitation in the region. Depleting water resource may stagnate the economic progress of the region. The paper provides suitable water resource management strategies to be adopted to improve the sustainability of water resources and economic growth in the region.     

Latitudinal variation of air sea fluxes in the western Indian ocean during austral summer and fall

Daily and zonal (latitudinal belt) averages of heat and momentum fluxes were computed using bulk aerodynamic formulae, from the meteorological parameters measured onboard M. S. Thuleland during the sixth Indian scientific expedition to Antarctica (26th November, 1986 to 22nd March, 1987). Both estimates showed significant variations, the momentum flux showing the largest variation. The maximum values of sensible and latent heat fluxes were observed over the 30°–40° S and 10°–20° S zones during the southern summer and fall respectively while the minimum values of latent heat flux were observed in the 60°–70° S zone for both seasons. The sensible heat flux minimum was observed in the 50°°60° S and 60°–70° S zones for summer and fall, respectively. Higher momentum flux values over the 40°–50° S zone in summer shifted to the 50°–60° S zone during fall.     

Quantitative modeling of groundwater in Satluj River basin of Rupnagar district of Punjab using remote sensing and geographic information system

Water is a fluctuating resource making it difficult to measure in time and in space. To demonstrate the efficiency of the geographic information system (GIS) for groundwater studies, information on the parameters controlling groundwater such as lithology, geomorphology and lineament analysis were analyzed. LISS-III and Landsat satellite image of the area was used to infer information on the geologic lineaments and geomorphology. To delineate linear features enhancement and direction, filtering was performed on single bands of Landsat images. Thematic maps for geology, slope, geomorphology and lineament were prepared and integrated in GIS by assigning the weights and ranking to various parameters controlling the occurrence of groundwater to generate the groundwater potential map for the study area. The results indicate that the floodplain of river and its adjoining areas have very good groundwater potential, whereas the steeply sloping area in the northern part having high relief and slope possesses poor groundwater potential.     

Study of the Diurnal Variation of Cosmic Rays during Different Phases of Solar Activity

The pressure-corrected hourly counting rate data of ground-based super neutron monitor stations, situated in different latitudes, have been employed to study the characteristics of the long-term variation of cosmic-ray diurnal anisotropy for a long (44-year) period (1965?–?2008). Some of these super neutron monitors are situated in low latitudes with high cutoff rigidity. Annual averages of the diurnal amplitudes and phases have been obtained for each station. It is found that the amplitude of the diurnal anisotropy varies with a period of one solar activity cycle (11 years), whereas the diurnal phase varies with a period of 22 years (one solar magnetic cycle). The average diurnal amplitudes and phases have also been calculated by grouping the days on the basis of ascending and descending periods of each solar cycle (Cycles 20, 21, 22, and 23). Systematic and significant differences are observed in the characteristics of the diurnal variation between the descending periods of the odd and even solar cycles. The overall vector averages of the descending periods of the even solar cycles (20 and 22) show significantly smaller diurnal amplitudes compared to the vector averages of the descending periods of the odd solar cycles (21 and 23). In contrast, we find a large diurnal phase shift to earlier hours only during the descending periods of even solar cycles (20 and 22), as compared to almost no shift in the diurnal phase during the descending periods of odd solar cycles. Further, the overall vector average diurnal amplitudes of the ascending period of odd and even solar cycles remain invariant from one ascending period to the other, or even between the even and odd solar cycles. However, we do find a significant diurnal phase shift to earlier hours during the ascending periods of odd solar cycles (21 and 23) in comparison to the diurnal phase in the ascending periods of even solar cycles (20 and 22).     

Debris flow susceptibility zonation using statistical models in parts of Northwest Indian Himalayas—implementation,validation, and comparative evaluation

Natural Hazards - Debris flows are natural disasters with devastating consequences and frequent recurrence in changing climatic regime of the Indian Himalayas. Therefore, it is necessary to...     

Analysis of frequency shifting in seismic signals using Gabor-Wigner transform

A hybrid time-frequency method known as Gabor-Wigner transform(GWT) is introduced in this paper for examining the time-frequency patterns of earthquake damaged buildings. GWT is developed by combining the Gabor transform(GT) and Wigner-Ville distribution(WVD). GT and WVD have been used separately on synthetic and recorded earthquake data to identify frequency shifting due to earthquake damages, but GT is prone to windowing effect and WVD involves ambiguity function. Hence to obtain better clarity and to remove the cross terms(frequency interference), GT and WVD are judiciously combined and the resultant GWT used to identify frequency shifting. Synthetic seismic response of an instrumented building and real-time earthquake data recorded on the building were investigated using GWT. It is found that GWT offers good accuracy for even slow variations in frequency, good time-frequency resolution, and localized response. Presented results confirm the efficacy of GWT when compared with GT and WVD used separately. Simulation results were quantified by the Renyi entropy measures and GWT shown to be an adequate technique in identifying localized response for structural damage detection.     

Anomalous phosphorus episodes during Callovian-Oxfordian times in the Kachchh Basin,western India: Implications for palaeoclimate,productivity, and weathering

The Upper Callovian-Oxfordian strata of the Kachchh Basin, western India, record three positive excursions of phosphorus. They have been documented in three sections of the Chari Formation from different parts of the basin. Corroboration of field and petrographic data with trends of major and trace elemental data and elemental ratios of the strata revealed that these excursions were coeval with reduced chemical weathering in the source area and significant reduction of siliciclastic influx to the depositional sites. The study also revealed the intrabasinal source of P, and minor sea-level fluctuations and resultant episodic sediment recycling as the causative factors. Considering the geographic locations of the three sections, the phosphorus anomalies seem to be controlled by a regional and/or basin-scale process, if not linked with global signals. Temporal resolution of these anomalies suggests that the processes were episodic and related to short term climate/relative sea-level cycles, the durations of which could be unraveled with high-resolution biostratigraphic data.