Wavelet–copula‐based mutual information for rainfall forecasting applications

Under a climate change, the physical factors that influence the rainfall regime are diverse and difficult to predict. The selection of skilful inputs for rainfall forecasting models is, therefore, more challenging. This paper combines wavelet transform and Frank copula function in a mutual information‐based input variable selection (IVS) for non‐linear rainfall forecasting models. The marginal probability density functions (PDFs) of a set of potential rainfall predictors and the rainfall series (predictand) were computed using a wavelet density estimator. The Frank copula function was applied to compute the joint PDF of the predictors and the predictand from their marginal PDFs. The relationship between the rainfall series and the potential predictors was assessed based on the mutual information computed from their marginal and joint PDFs. Finally, the minimum redundancy maximum relevance was used as an IVS stopping criterion to determine the number of skilful input variables. The proposed approach was applied to four stations of the Nigerien Sahel with rainfall series spanning the period 1950–2016 by considering 24 climate indices as potential predictors. Adaptive neuro‐fuzzy inference system, artificial neural networks, and random forest‐based forecast models were used to assess the skill of the proposed IVS method. The three forecasting models yielded satisfactory results, exhibiting a coefficient of determination between 0.52 and 0.69 and a mean absolute percentage error varying from 13.6% to 21%. The adaptive neuro‐fuzzy inference system performed better than the other models at all the stations. A comparison made with KDE‐based mutual information showed the advantage of the proposed wavelet–copula approach.     

Geological evolution of the Gulf of Saros,NE Aegean Sea

 The Gulf of Saros is an Upper Miocene transtensional basin in NW Anatolia, formed by the interaction between the North Anatolian Fault and the N-S extensional tectonic régime of the Aegean. The present configuration of the basin evolved mainly during the Plio-Quaternary under the increased activity of the North Anatolian Fault. During the late Miocene-late Quaternary, no sedimentation took place on the shelves. After this long hiatus, an important change in tectonic style about 0.2 Ma BP allowed sedimentation to resume in the gulf. Received: 14 February 1997 / Revision received: 12 November 1997     

The Košice meteorite fall: Recovery and strewn field

We provide the circumstances and details of the fireball observation, search expeditions, recovery, strewn field, and physical characteristics of the Ko?ice meteorite that fell in Slovakia on February 28, 2010. The meteorite was only the 15th case of an observed bolide with a recovered mass and subsequent orbit determination. Despite multiple eyewitness reports of the bolide, only three videos from security cameras in Hungary were used for the strewn field determination and orbit computation. Multiple expeditions of professionals and individual searchers found 218 fragments with total weight of 11.3 kg. The strewn field with the size of 5 × 3 km is characterized with respect to the space distribution of the fragments, their mass and size‐frequency distribution. This work describes a catalog of 78 fragments, mass, size, volume, fusion crust, names of discoverers, geographic location, and time of discovery, which represents the most complex study of a fresh meteorite fall. From the analytical results, we classified the Ko?ice meteorite as an ordinary H5 chondrite.     

Use of Pistachio Shells as an Adsorbent for the Removal of Zinc(II) Ion

In this study, the removal of zinc(II) ion from an aqueous solution by pistachio shells (PS) is investigated. The dynamic behavior of the adsorption is examined on the effects of pH, adsorbent dosage, and contact time. The adsorption rates are determined quantitatively and simulated by the Lagergren first order, pseudo‐second order, Elovich, and intra‐particle diffusion kinetic models. The adsorption kinetic models are also tested for validity. The thermodynamic parameters, which are also deduced from adsorption experiments, are very useful in elucidating the nature of adsorption. The experimental results reveal that the optimum pH value and the contact time for the adsorption of Zn²⁺ onto PS are found as 6 and 10 min, respectively. According to these parameters, adsorption process follows the pseudo‐second order kinetic model with high correlation coefficients (R² = 0.999). The obtained results demonstrate that PS is a reasonably effective adsorbent for the removal of Zn²⁺ from aqueous leachate of hazardous waste.     

Description of the larval stage of Drusus mixtus (Pictet, 1834) (Trichoptera: Limnephilidae: Drusinae) with notes on its ecology and zoogeography

In the Swiss Jura adults of Drusus mixtus and unknown Drusinae larvae which could not be identified with existing keys were sampled. Based on ripe pupae, the unknown larvae were identified as D. mixtus. The association was confirmed by specimen rearing in aquaria.Based on morphology, larvae of D. mixtus key out together with Drusus croaticus in existing keys. D. mixtus is separated from the latter species by the shape of the anteromedian metanotal sclerites which are broadly triangular, whereas in D. croaticus the sclerites are almost parallel-sided, resembling a stretched rectangle. In addition, the two species are geographically well separated: D. croaticus is restricted to the confines of Croatia and Slovenia, whereas D. mixtus is only present in Switzerland and eastern France. With this present paper, all Central European Drusinae species except Drusus chapmani McL, 1901, (France, Switzerland) and D. noricus Malicky, 1981, an endemic from the Saualpe (Carinthia, Austria), are known in the larval stage.     

Pyritized mudstone and associated facies in the Permian–Triassic boundary of the Çürük Dağ section,Southern Turkey

This paper is the first study of pyritized mudstones (PM) in the Permian–Triassic (P–T) boundary section of the Çürük Da? (Taurus, Antalya Nappes, Turkey). The mudstones were generally formed as lensoidal-shaped layers or infill materials within nodular platform limestones (hardground). Normal marine fauna is diminished in the pyritized limestones, whereas tube-like microorganisms are apparently increased with the association of pyrite crystals consisting of both framboidal and cubic crystals. The total rock volumes are up to 50–60% clay minerals and are mainly made up of in situ kaolinite and subordinate mixed layer clays (illite–vermiculite). Kaolinite preferentially developed on feldspar crystals, sometimes covering ostracoda bivalves together with gypsum micronodules composed of fan-shaped gypsum crystals. The origin of the kaolinite is, in situ, directly related to feldspar dissolution via heterotrophic bacteria. Thus, kaolinite is found along with bacterial structures. Other mineralogical compositions include established quartz (mostly β-quartz), gypsum crystals (100–200 μm) glauconite and magnetite. Magnetite grains comprise a minor amount (1–2%) and show some bacterial-induced crystal orientations. Glauconite is formed as an accessory mineral that occurs as infill material in biogenic grains. On the other hand, some microspheres represented by a silica-dominated composition are only observed in scanning electron microscopes (SEM) studies under high magnification. Isotope values (d34S) obtained from the pyritized mudstones show an isotopic heterogeneity that suggests that the pyritized mudstone consists of at least two components, with different sulphur-concentrations and d34S values.     

October 23, 2011 Turkey/Van–Ercis earthquake: structural damages in the residential buildings

On October 23, 2011, a magnitude of Mw 7.2 earthquake struck the Van province in eastern Turkey which caused approximately 600 life loss and 4,000 injured people. Although the recorded peak ground accelerations were relatively low (0.15–0.2 g) compared with that of other recent destructive Turkish earthquakes and the code-based design response spectrum, a large number of reinforced concrete buildings with 4–6 stories and non-engineered masonry buildings were either heavily damaged or collapsed in the region. Based on the post-earthquake technical inspections, the goal of this paper is to introduce major reasons for structural damages in the disaster area and to discuss these failures along with the approaches given in the design code which is renewed after August 17, 1999 Marmara Earthquake. Some remarkable lessons learned from earthquake-induced failures and damages specific to building construction techniques are presented in this paper.     

Informational decision support for risk reduction related to hailstorm in Oltenia region: Romania

This paper deals with the design of a system for decisional support dedicated to an anti-hail system. It is proposed a specific system for Romania anti-hail network, which completes the existing systems with specific information in order to identify the best solutions for both coordination and launch. The main topics refer to the system structure, information handled in the system and reconstruction of a signal based on Bayes criterion. The system comprises two main components: a subsystem of launch decision and a subsystem for assisting the launch decision. In order to achieve this system, the following important issues are considered: the use of communication via GPRS, monitoring the parameters throughout all operating period, log-values, status and alarms, operator actions logs, friendly graphical interface and the generation of tabular and graphical reports for any period. The system enables an increased efficiency by shortening the time for action, a good organization and a high degree of security.     

40Ar–39Ar dating, whole-rock and Sr–Nd–Pb isotope geochemistry of post-collisional Eocene volcanic rocks in the southern part of the Eastern Pontides (NE Turkey): implications for magma evolution in extension-induced origin

The Eocene volcano-sedimentary units in the southern part of the Eastern Pontides (NE Turkey) are confined within a narrow zone of east–west trending, semi-isolated basins in Bayburt, Gümü?hane, ?iran and Alucra areas. The volcanic rocks in these areas are mainly basalt and andesite through dacite, with a dominant calc-alkaline to rare tholeiitic tendency. ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar dating of these volcanic rocks places them between 37.7 ± 0.2 and 44.5 ± 0.2 Ma (Middle Eocene). Differences in the major and trace element variations can be explained by the fractionation of clinopyroxene ± magnetite in basaltic rocks and that of hornblende + plagioclase ± magnetite ± apatite in andesitic rocks. Primitive mantle-normalized multi-element variations exhibit enrichment of large-ion lithophile elements and to a lesser extent, of light rare earth elements, as well as depletion of high field strength elements, thus revealing that volcanic rocks evolved from a parental magma derived from an enriched mantle source. Chondrite-normalized rare earth element patterns of the aforementioned volcanic rocks resemble each other and are spoon-shaped with low-to-medium enrichment (La_N/Lu_N = 2–14), indicating similar spinel lherzolitic mantle source(s). Sr, Nd and Pb isotopic systematics imply that the volcanic rocks are derived from a subduction-modified subcontinental lithospheric mantle. Furthermore, post-collisional thickened continental crust, lithospheric delamination and a subduction-imposed thermal structure are very important in generating Tertiary magma(s). The predominantly calc-alkaline nature of Eocene volcanic rocks is associated with increasing geodynamic regime-extension, whereas tholeiitic volcanism results from local variations in the stress regime of the ongoing extension and the thermal structure, as well as the thickness of the crust and the mantle-crust source regions. Based on volcanic variety and distribution, as well as on petrological data, Tertiary magmatic activity in Eastern Pontides is closely related to post-collisional thinning of the young lithosphere, which, in turn, is caused by extension and lithospheric delamination after collisional events between the Tauride–Anatolide Platform and the Eurasian Plate.