Image transforms for determining fit-for-purpose complexity of geostatistical models in flow modeling

Increased diversity of water or energy resources has led to an increased complexity in models aimed at representing accurately dynamic behavior and geological variability in such systems. In terms of variability of properties at least, simple layered models have mostly been replaced with more complex geostatistical models. The newest trend is to replace covariance-based models with geologically more realistic models such as Boolean, multiple-point, surface-, or process-based models. In this paper, we address the following question: given some design purpose or a set of flow-based decision variables, does adding more complexity increase predictability and ultimately improve decisions based on such models? In this paper, we do not attempt to make any generalizing statements or answer this question with yes/no, but provide some initial ideas on practical workflows to discover the needed complexity. We do treat complexity only in the context of decision making under uncertainty. Two workflows are proposed: complexifying versus simplifying. In these workflows, we attempt to extract, using image transforms, relevant features of the variability between geostatistical realizations that are related to uncertainty in flow dynamics. A simple distance-based calibration between the static variability and dynamic variability provides a means to decide on what the relevant complexity of geostatistical models should be for the given purpose.     

Spatial Statistical Properties of Pressure Solution Seams in Clastic Rocks in Southwest Ireland

Length, height, thickness and spacing measurements of pressure solution seams at outcrop, hand sample and thin section scale were taken from clastic rocks located in the southwest of Ireland. The lengths and spacings of pressure solution seams have similarly shaped (approximately log-hyperbolic) distributions at the observed scales suggesting that length and spacing distributions are scale-independent over the scales studied with a fractal dimension in the range of 1.4 to 1.6. Pressure solution seam lengths and thicknesses are related by a power-law and their spacings have a linear relationship to bed thickness. Although pressure solution seams are often considered as anticracks (forming under the same remote stresses as joints, but with opposite sign) we describe how the mechanism of pressure solution differs substantially from that of jointing. We use an existing mechanical model to show that stresses around pressure solution seam tips are much lower than those for joints under equal but opposite loading conditions. Pressure solution seams also have a decreasing tendency to lengthen as they grow, which is reflected in their length distributions. We propose that pressure solution seams, unlike joints, do not reach fracture saturation spacing because of transverse coalescence.     

Reservoir operation using system dynamics under climate change impacts: a case study of Yamchi reservoir,Iran

This paper proposes a decision support system for Yamchi reservoir operation in semi-arid region of Iran. The paper consists of the following steps: Firstly, the potential impacts of climate change on the streamflow are predicted. The study then presents the projections of future changes in temperature and precipitation under A2 scenario using the LARS-WG downscaling model and under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 using the statistical downscaling model (SDSM) in the northwestern of Iran. To do so, a general circulation model of HadCM3 is downscaled by using the LARS-WG model. As a result, the average temperature, for the horizon 2030 (2011–2030), will increase by 0.77 °C and precipitation will decrease by 11 mm. Secondly, the downscaled variables are used as input to the artificial neural network to investigate the possible impact of climate change on the runoffs. Thirdly, the system dynamics model is employed to model different scenarios for reservoir operation using the Vensim software. System dynamics is an effective approach for understanding the behavior of complex systems. Simulation results demonstrate that the water shortage in different sectors (including agriculture, domestic, industry, and environmental users) will be enormously increased in the case of business-as-usual strategy. In this research, by providing innovative management strategies, including deficit irrigation, the vulnerability of reservoir operation is reduced. The methodology is evaluated by using different modeling tests which then motivates using the methodology for other arid/semi-arid regions.     

Geochemical and Sr–Nd–Pb isotopic compositions of the Eocene Dölek and Sariçiçek Plutons, Eastern Turkey: Implications for magma interaction in the genesis of high-K calc-alkaline granitoids in a post-collision extensional setting

The major and trace elements and Sr–Nd–Pb isotopes of the host rocks and the mafic microgranular enclaves (MME) gathered from the Dölek and Sariçiçek plutons, Eastern Turkey, were studied to understand the underlying petrogenesis and geodynamic setting. The plutons were emplaced at  43 Ma at shallow depths ( 5 to 9 km) as estimated from Al-in hornblende geobarometry. The host rocks consist of a variety of rock types ranging from diorite to granite (SiO₂ = 56.98–72.67 wt.%; Mg# = 36.8–50.0) populated by MMEs of gabbroic diorite to monzodiorite in composition (SiO₂ = 53.21–60.94 wt.%; Mg# = 44.4–53.5). All the rocks show a high-K calc-alkaline differentiation trend. Chondrite-normalized REE patterns are moderately fractionated and relatively flat [(La/Yb)_N = 5.11 to 8.51]. They display small negative Eu anomalies (Eu/Eu = 0.62 to 0.88), with enrichment of LILE and depletion of HFSE. Initial Nd–Sr isotopic compositions for the host rocks are ε_Nd(43 Ma) = − 0.6 to 0.8 and mostly I_Sr = 0.70482–0.70548. The Nd model ages (T_DM) vary from 0.84 to 0.99 Ga. The Pb isotopic ratios are (²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb) = 18.60–18.65, (²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb) = 15.61–15.66 and (²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb) = 38.69–38.85. Compared with the host rocks, the MMEs are relatively homogeneous in isotopic composition, with I_Sr ranging from 0.70485 to 0.70517, ε_Nd(43 Ma) − 0.1 to 0.8 and with Pb isotopic ratios of (²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb) = 18.58–18.64, (²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb) = 15.60–15.66 and (²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb) = 38.64–38.77. The MMEs have T_DM ranging from 0.86 to 1.36 Ga. The geochemical and isotopic similarities between the MMEs and their host rocks indicate that the enclaves are of mixed origin and are most probably formed by the interaction between the lower crust- and mantle-derived magmas. All the geochemical data, in conjunction with the geodynamic evidence, suggest that a basic magma derived from an enriched subcontinental lithospheric mantle, probably triggered by the upwelling of the asthenophere, and interacted with a crustal melt that originated from the dehydration melting of the mafic lower crust at deep crustal levels. Modeling based on the Sr–Nd isotope data indicates that  77–83% of the subcontinental lithospheric mantle involved in the genesis. Consequently, the interaction process played an important role in the genesis of the hybrid granitoid bodies, which subsequently underwent a fractional crystallization process along with minor amounts of crustal assimilation, en route to the upper crustal levels generating a wide variety of rock types ranging from diorite to granite in an extensional regime.     

地球介质的非定常参数黏弹模型

用开尔文黏弹模型对实验蠕变曲线和冰后期地面抬升观测曲线进行反演,得到相关的黏弹参数,发现所有的黏弹参数都随实验（或观测）时间长度发生有规律的变化, 表明黏弹参数是实验(或观测)时间的函数.在此基础上提出非定常参数的黏弹模型,将通常采用的剪切模量μ2、弛豫时间τ 和黏度η 相应地从常数修正为时间的函数μ2(t)、τ(t) 和η（t）,检验表明修正后的开尔文模型可以更好地符合实测蠕变曲线.用修正后的μ2(t)对软流层的黏度进行估算,其值约为4.6×1020 Pa·s.