Reducing climate risk for micro-insurance providers in Africa: A case study of Ethiopia

Recurrent climate hazards challenge subsistence farmers in developing countries. Reliance on various diversification strategies and traditional risk sharing among kin and families has serious limitations, such as the problem of covariate risk within such networks. Index-based crop insurance could help to reduce people's climate-related risk, but raising the necessary capital to make insurance schemes financially secure is difficult for micro-insurance providers. We examine the extent to which spatial pooling of micro-insurance schemes could reduce these capital requirements. We simulate a hypothetical insurance market operating in Ethiopia, using rainfall data and yield estimates for 15 stations. By performing a Monte Carlo analysis, risk capital required to keep the probability of financial ruin below a threshold value is identified. We investigate the marginal benefits of pooling increasing numbers of sites, as well as the relationship between the benefits of pooling and the spatial covariance of rainfall. We find spatial diversification to offer considerable savings in required capitalization with as few as three sites pooled, as well as a weak but significant relationship between rainfall covariance and those benefits. The results suggest that spatial pooling may be an attractive option for micro-insurers, worthy of a detailed case-by-case analysis when designing index-insurance schemes.     

Prompt transgression and gradual salinisation of the Black Sea during the early Holocene constrained by amino acid racemization and radiocarbon dating

The restricted environment of the Black Sea is particularly sensitive to climatic and oceanographic fluctuations, owing to its connection with the Mediterranean Sea via the narrow Bosphorus Strait. The exact mechanism and timing of the most recent connection between these water bodies is controversial with debate on the post-glacial history of the Black Sea being dependent on radiocarbon dating for numerical ages. Here we present new 23 accelerator mass spectrometer (AMS) radiocarbon ages on peat and bivalve molluscs, supported by the first amino acid racemization (AAR) dating of bivalve molluscs (n = 66) in the Black Sea. These data indicate infilling of the Black Sea during the early Holocene from an initial depth 107 m below sea-level, and 72 m below that of the Bosphorus Sill. These data combined with a review of previous radiocarbon ages has enabled a unique perspective on the post-glacial Black Sea. A sea-level curve based on conventional and AMS radiocarbon ages on peat and AMS-based ages on Dreissena sp. shells indicate the water-level in the earlier lake phase continued, until the early Holocene, to be lower than the Bosphorus Sill after the Younger Dryas ended. However, the absence of AMS-dated mollusc ages from the shelves of this basin older than the Younger Dryas is suggestive of sub-aerial exposure of the shelves, and comparatively lower water-levels when the Younger Dryas began. Thus post-glacial outflow from the Black Sea occurred through a lowered or open Bosphorus seaway. Basin-wide radiocarbon ages on peat indicate a prompt increase in water-level from that of the pre-existing and unconnected palaeo-lake during the earliest Holocene (9600–9200 cal a BP). Mass colonisation of the Black Sea by Mediterranean taxa did not occur until salinity had risen sufficiently, a process which took 1000 a or more from the initial transgressive event. This gradual change in salinity contrasts with the prompt transgression which would have taken ～400 a to occur.     

Relative sea‐level change and postglacial isostatic adjustment along the coast of south Devon,United Kingdom

Previous sea‐level studies suggest that southwest Britain has the fastest subsiding coastline in the United Kingdom, but tide‐gauge data, GPS and gravity measurements and geophysical models show little evidence of anomalous subsidence in this region. In this paper we present 15 new sea‐level index points from four coastal barrier systems in south Devon. Eight are from compaction‐free basal sediments and others were corrected for autocompaction. Our data suggest that relative sea level along the south Devon coastline has risen by 21 ± 4 m during the past 9000 years. Sea‐level rise slowed during the middle and late Holocene and a rise of 8 ± 1 m has occurred since ca. 7000 cal. yr BP. Anomalous ages for many rejected points are attributed to sediment reworking during barrier transgression. The relative sea‐level history during the early and middle Holocene shows a good fit with geophysical model predictions, but the geological and modelled data diverge in the later Holocene. Unlike the geophysical models, sea‐level index points cannot differentiate between late Holocene relative sea‐level histories of south Devon and southwest Cornwall. It is suggested that this discrepancy can be resolved by obtaining additional high‐quality sea‐level index points covering the past 4000 years. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A numerical study of the influence from pre‐existing cracks on granite rock fragmentation at percussive drilling

The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of pre‐existing, or structural, cracks on dynamic fragmentation of granite. Because of the complex behavior of rock materials, a continuum approach is employed relying upon a plasticity model with yield surface locus as a quadratic function of the mean pressure in the principal stress space coupled with an anisotropic damage model. In particular, Bohus granite rock is investigated, and the material parameters are chosen based on previous experiments. The equation of motion is discretized using a finite element approach, and the explicit time integration method is employed. The pre‐existing cracks are introduced in the model by considering sets of elements with negligible tensile strength that leads to their immediate failure when loaded in tension even though they still carry compressive loads as crack closure occurs because of compressive stresses. Previously performed edge‐on impact tests are reconsidered here to validate the numerical model. Percussive drilling is simulated, and the influence of the presence of pre‐existing cracks is studied. The results from the analysis with different crack lengths and orientations are compared in terms of penetration stiffness and fracture pattern. It is shown that pre‐existing cracks in all investigated cases facilitate the drilling process. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

How do small-holder farmers understand insurance,and how much do they want it? Evidence from Africa

Innovative micro-insurance schemes can be one tool to help African small-holder farmers cope with climate variability and change. A critical challenge for implementing such risk transfer programs, however, is helping participants understand how insurance operates, and there is evidence that farmers with a poor understanding of insurance are less likely to use it. One of the proposed tools to help farmers understand insurance is a simulation game, through which farmers can gain first-hand experience with a functioning insurance market. This paper reports on the results of experiments in Ethiopia and Malawi, investigating farmers’ understanding and the effectiveness of a role-playing game at improving that understanding. Our results suggest a generally poor understanding of basic insurance concepts, and are consistent with past results in suggesting that better understanding correlates with greater willingness to purchase it. Our results also suggest that role-playing games may be an important tool for improving understanding, but that they do not necessarily out-perform more conventional training practices.     

遗传算法和GIS结合进行空间优化决策

资源的有效利用和管理往往涉及到空间的优化配置问题。例如需要在空间上确定n个设施的最佳位置。当选址问题涉及多个目标和不同的约束性条件时,就会变得十分复杂。利用一般的brute-force搜索方法无法对涉及高维数据的问题进行求解。利用遗传算法和GIS结合来解决复杂的空间优化配置问题,具有智能的搜索方法可以大大提高空间的搜索能力。在基于进化的优化过程中,根据GIS的空间数据来计算不同解决方案 (染色体) 的适应度。针对不同的应用目的,GIS可以给出不同的适应度函数。实验表明,所提出的方法比简单的搜索方法和退火算法有更大的优越性。该方法在处理复杂的空间优化问题有更好的表现。     

Developing sustainability-oriented values: Insights from households in a trial of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles

This paper explores the possibilities of consumer transitions to sustainability-oriented values. We draw from sociological and psychological literature to develop a conceptual framework that reflexively links an individual's values and self-concept to their behaviors. We inductively explore the consideration, and in some cases development, of sustainability-oriented values in a small number of narrative accounts of peoples’ encounter with a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle during a multi-week trial. Because a plug-in hybrid vehicle substitutes electricity for gasoline, it is a technology that potentially symbolizes sustainability-oriented values. We classify participating households according to Schwartz's 10 motivation types, where households associate sustainability with different motivations, namely benevolence, universalism or self-direction. We categorize households into three groups: those that demonstrate no interests in sustainability-oriented values, those that demonstrate interest in developing such values during their plug-in hybrid vehicle demonstration experience, and those that were already committed to sustainability-oriented values and behaviors. We observe that households open to change are more likely to develop sustainability-oriented values if: (i) their self-concept is open to change (liminal), either as a temporary transitional state or sustained as a value, (ii) they associate sustainability with broader motivational values that are already central to their self-concept, in this case benevolence, universalism or self-direction, and (iii) they experience positive social support for new, sustainability-oriented values within their social networks. Our exploratory findings imply that sustainability-oriented values can be developed in households who did not previously express them. Value change opens new possibilities for sustainable consumer behavior, practices, and policy.     

A variable source area for groundwater evapotranspiration: impacts on modeling stream flow

Evapotranspiration (ET) plays a crucial role in catchment water budgets, typically accounting for more than 50% of annual precipitation falling within temperate deciduous forests. Groundwater ET is a portion of total ET that occurs where plant roots extend to the capillary fringe above the phreatic surface or induce upward movement of water from the water table by hydraulic redistribution. Groundwater ET is spatially restricted to riparian zones or other areas where the groundwater is accessible to plants. Due to the difficulty in measuring groundwater ET, it is rarely incorporated explicitly into hydrological models. In this study, we calibrated Topographic Model (TOPMODEL) using a 14‐year hydrograph record and added a groundwater ET pathway to derive a new model, Groundwater Evapotranspiration TOPMODEL (GETTOP). We inspected groundwater elevations and stream flow hydrographs for evidence of groundwater ET, examined the relationship between groundwater ET and topography, and delineated the area where groundwater ET is likely to take place. The total groundwater ET flux was estimated using a hydrological model. Groundwater ET was larger where the topography was flat and the groundwater table was shallow, occurring within about 10% of the area in a headwater catchment and accounting for 6 to 18% of total annual ET. The addition of groundwater ET to GETTOP improved the simulation of stream discharge and more closely balanced the watershed water budget. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparing resident and tourist preferences for public beach access and related amenities

As coastal destinations continue to grow, due to tourism and residential expansion, the demand for public beach access and related amenities will also increase. The issue confronting management agencies responsible for providing and maintaining public beach access and related amenities is the varying needs and preferences of both residents and tourists of coastal destinations. The purpose of this paper is to provide comprehensive information about coastal recreational needs of residents and tourists with regards to public beach access and associated amenities using the stated preference choice method. Overall, the results indicate tourists were more interested in additional public beach access points and commercial development, while residents supported beach rules and regulations but opposed high levels of crowding and noise. Implications of these results for management agencies include the utilization of parking fees to subsidize additional public beach access points, identifying appropriate types and levels of commercial development that moderate the use of coastal resources by tourists and day-trip users, and implementing beach rules and regulations that reduce the potential for conflict between user groups. Providing management agencies with comprehensive information of the preferences of different beach user groups can assist in the development of more effective policies and management programs.