Introduction to “Tsunamis in the World Ocean: Past,Present, and Future. Volume II”

Fifteen papers are included in Volume 2 of a PAGEOPH topical issue Tsunamis in the World Ocean: Past, Present, and Future. These papers are briefly introduced. They are grouped into three categories: reports and studies of recent tsunamis, studies on tsunami statistics and application to tsunami warning, and modeling studies of tsunami runup and inundation. Most of the papers were presented at the 24th International Tsunami Symposium held 14–16 July 2009 in Novosibirsk, Russia, and reflect the current state of tsunami science.     

Thermochronology and the three-dimensional cooling pattern of a granitic pluton: an example from the Toki granite,Central Japan

The three-dimensional spatial variations in the cooling pattern of the Toki granitic body, a zoned pluton in Central Japan, have been evaluated quantitatively by thermochronology using cooling age determination based on the different closure temperatures for target mineral species. The Toki granite has hornblende K–Ar ages of about 74.3 ± 3.7 Ma (N = 2; closure temperature of 510 ± 25°C), biotite K–Ar ages of 78.5 ± 3.9 to 59.7 ± 1.5 Ma (N = 33; 300 ± 50°C), and zircon fission-track ages of 75.6 ± 3.3 to 52.8 ± 2.6 Ma (N = 44; 240 ± 50°C). The spatial variation in the biotite K–Ar age is similar to that in the zircon fission-track age in samples collected from 11 boreholes and seven outcrop sites in the Toki granite, indicating that cooling was effectively from the roof and also from the northwest margin. This cooling pattern shows a strong correlation with the Alumina Saturation Index (ASI) distribution of the body. Larger ASI values correspond to earlier and more rapid cooling after emplacement and smaller value to slower cooling. Toki granite was effectively cooled from the peraluminous regions where assimilation of country sedimentary rock was most extensive.     

Regional groundwater flow in an area mapped as continuous permafrost, NE Alaska (USA)

Fundamental knowledge of groundwater systems in areas of permafrost is often lacking. The likelihood of finding good quality groundwater resources of acceptable quantities generally decreases as the areal coverage of permafrost increases. In areas of continuous permafrost, the probability of finding areas of groundwater recharge and discharge are minimal. Still, in northeastern Alaska (USA), the presence of numerous springs and associated downstream aufeis formations clearly indicates that there has to be a groundwater system with the required complementary areas of groundwater recharge and transmission. Recharge zones and transmission pathways in this area of extensive permafrost, however, are essentially unknown. This study shows that the recharge occurs on the south side of the Brooks Range in northeastern Alaska, where extensive limestone outcrops are found. The transmission zone is beneath the permafrost, with discharge occurring through the springs via taliks through the permafrost (where faults are present) and also likely at the northern edge of the permafrost along the Beaufort Sea coast.     

Effects of Snowfall on Drifting Snow and Wind Structure Near a Surface

Wind-tunnel and numerical experiments were performed to investigate the effects of snowfall on the wind profile and the development of drifting snow. Wind profiles and mass-flux profiles of drifting snow were measured with and without artificial snowfall over a snow surface within the tunnel. Wind and shear-stress profiles and the impact speeds of the snowflakes during snowfall were also investigated numerically. During snowfall, snowflakes transfer part of their horizontal momentum to the air, which increases the stress close to the snow surface; however, the resultant modifications of the wind profiles are small. Because snowflakes have large momentum, the decomposed snow crystals that result from their collision with a surface can form a saltation layer, even over a hard snow surface where entrainment of the grains from the surface does not occur. Additionally, during snowfall, the threshold friction velocity can be lower than the impact threshold because snowflake fragmentation facilitates snow drifting. The broken crystals contribute to the increase in the number of drifting snow grains, even below the impact threshold.     

WEATHERING OF PALEOZOIC MARBLES IN THE INDEPENDENCE HILLS AND PATRIOT HILLS,ELLSWORTH MOUNTAINS,ANTARCTICA

Weathering processes in the Ellsworth Mountains of Antarctica are dominated by frost action. These processes were observed to be different on the same group of marbles under different slope conditions. North- and south-facing walls of the bedrock showed the same shattering rate in the summer of 1992–1993. Frost shattering of rocks is controlled by surface temperature, moisture, and the physical properties of the rock. The most important control on frost shattering in this area was moisture availability, given the same bedrock and freeze-thaw cycle. Snow particles are moved by katabatic winds, bringing moisture to the rock. Moisture is collected mainly in lower cliffs and cols. [Key words: weathering, marble, moisture conditions, Antarctica.]     

Comparison of seismicity declustering methods using a probabilistic measure of clustering

We present a new measure of earthquake clustering and explore its use for comparing the performance of three different declustering methods. The advantage of this new clustering measure over existing techniques is that it can be used for non-Poissonian background seismicity and, in particular, to compare the results of declustering algorithms where different background models are used. We use our approach to study inter-event times between successive earthquakes using earthquake catalog data from Japan and southern California. A measure of the extent of clustering is introduced by comparing the inter-event time distributions of the background seismicity to that of the whole observed seismicity. Theoretical aspects of the clustering measure are then discussed with respect to the Poissonian and Weibull models for the background inter-event time distribution. In the case of a Poissonian background, the obtained clustering measure shows a decrease followed by an increase, defining a V-shaped trend, which can be explained by the presence of short- and long-range correlation in the inter-event time series. Three previously proposed declustering methods (i.e., the methods of Gardner and Knopoff, Reasenberg, and Zhuang et al.) are used to obtain an approximation of the residual “background” inter-event time distribution in order to apply our clustering measure to real seismicity. The clustering measure is then estimated for different values of magnitude cutoffs and time periods, taking into account the completeness of each catalog. Plots of the clustering measure are presented as clustering attenuation curves (CACs), showing how the correlation decreases when inter-event times increase. The CACs demonstrate strong clustering at short inter-event time ranges and weak clustering at long time ranges. When the algorithm of Gardner and Knopoff is used, the CACs show strong correlation with a weak background at the short inter-event time ranges. The fit of the CACs using the Poissonian background model is successful at short and intermediate inter-event time ranges, but deviates at long ranges. The observed deviation shows that the residual catalog obtained after declustering remains non-Poissonian at long time ranges. The apparent background fraction can be estimated directly from the CAC fit. The CACs using the algorithms of Reasenberg and Zhuang et al. show a relatively similar behavior, with a time correlation decreasing more rapidly than the CACs of Gardner and Knopoff for shorter time ranges. This study offers a novel approach for the study of different types of clustering produced as a result of various hypotheses used to account for different backgrounds.     

Projection of extreme flood inundation in the Mekong River basin under 4K increasing scenario using large ensemble climate data

Projecting changes in the frequency and intensity of future precipitation and flooding is critical for the development of social infrastructure under climate change. The Mekong River is among the world's large-scale rivers severely affected by climate change. This study aims to define the duration of precipitation contributing to peak floods based on its correlation with peak discharge and inundation volume in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB). We assessed the changes in precipitation and flood frequency using a large ensemble Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change (d4PDF). River discharge in the Mekong River Basin (MRB) and flood inundation in the LMB were simulated by a coupled rainfall-runoff and inundation (RRI) model. Results indicated that 90-day precipitation counting backward from the day of peak flooding had the highest correlation with peak discharge (R² = .81) and inundation volume (R² = .81). The ensemble mean of present simulation of d4PDF (1951–2010) showed good agreement with observed extreme flood events in the LMB. The probability density of 90-day precipitation shifted from the present to future climate experiments with a large variation of mean (from 777 to 900 mm) and SD (from 57 to 96 mm). Different patterns of sea surface temperature significantly influence the variation of precipitation and flood inundation in the LMB in the future (2051–2110). Extreme flood events (50-year, 100-year, and 1,000-year return periods) showed increases in discharge, inundation area, and inundation volume by 25%–40%, 19%–36%, and 23%–37%, respectively.     

Implementation of an optimized Cassegrain system for radio telescopes

We present the antenna design for a radio interferometer, the Arcminute Microkelvin Imager, together with its beam pattern measurement. Our aim was to develop a low-cost system with high aperture efficiency and low ground spill across the frequency range 12–18 GHz. We use a modified Cassegrain system consisting of a commercially available paraboloidal primary mirror with a diameter of 3.7 m, and a shaped secondary mirror. The secondary mirror is oversized with respect to a ray optics design and has a surface that is bent towards the primary near its outer edge using a square term for the shaping. The antennas are simple to manufacture and therefore their cost is low. The design increased the antenna gain by approximately 10 per cent compared to a normal Cassegrain system while still maintaining low contamination from ground spill and using a simple design for the horn.