Treating the Risks in Cairns

Cairns is exposed to the well-known natural hazards oftropical cyclone, flood, stormsurge and thunderstorm, but is also exposed to thelesser-known hazards of landslip, earthquake and dam break flooding. Recommendations fortreating the risks associated with these hazards have been made that will involve amulti-disciplinary approach to treatment strategies, require the cooperation of allthree levels of government, involve public utility authorities and private enterprise andinvolve the community as a whole.This paper summarises the suggested mitigation treatmentoptions, presented to the Cairns City Council and identified in the LocalGovernment Disaster Mitigation Project conducted in Cairns in 1999/2000 by theQueensland Department of Emergency Services.     

Concentrations of 137Cs, 90Sr, 108m Ag, 239+240 Pu and atom ratio of 240Pu/239Pu in tanner crabs, Chionoecetes japonicus and Chionoecetes opilio collected around Japan

The anthropogenic radionuclides, ¹³⁷Cs, ⁹⁰Sr, ^108mAg, ^239+240Pu, were measured in two Chionoecetes species, red queen crab (Chionoecetes japonicus) and snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) collected around Japan during 1996–2007. There was no increase in the concentrations of these radionuclides and no large variation of the atom ratio of ²⁴⁰Pu/²³⁹Pu during this research period. These results indicated that the source of the radionuclides was not the radioactive wastes dumped by the former USSR and Russia and originated from past nuclear weapon tests. The higher atom ratio in the crab species than that from global fallout would be contributed by the Pacific Proving Grounds close-in fallout. The variability of the concentration of radionuclides in the crab species would result from the variability of the composition and quantity in the diet. However, the decrease in the concentration of radionuclides with sampling depth would depend on the concentration in the seawater and diet.     

An Issue of Permanence: Assessing the Effectiveness of Temporary Carbon Storage

In this paper, we present a method to quantify the effectiveness of carbon mitigation options taking into account the `permanence' of the emissions reduction. While the issue of permanence is most commonly associated with a `leaky' carbon sequestration reservoir, we argue that this is an issue that applies to just about all carbon mitigation options. The appropriate formulation of this problem is to ask `what is the value of temporary storage?' Valuing temporary storage can be represented as a familiar economic problem, with explicitly stated assumptions about carbon prices and the discount rate. To illustrate the methodology, we calculate the sequestration effectiveness for injecting CO₂ at various depths in the ocean. Analysis is performed for three limiting carbon price assumptions: constant carbon prices (assumes constant marginal damages), carbon prices rise at the discount rate (assumes efficient allocation of a cumulative emissions cap without a backstop technology), and carbon prices first rise at the discount rate but become constant after a given time (assumes introduction of a backstop technology). Our results show that the value of relatively deep ocean carbon sequestration can be nearly equivalent to permanent sequestration if marginal damages (i.e., carbon prices) remain constant or if there is a backstop technology that caps the abatement cost in the not too distant future. On the other hand, if climate damages are such as to require a fixed cumulative emissions limit and there is no backstop, then a storage option with even very slow leakage has limited value relative to a permanent storage option.     

Assessing the potential impact of climate change on the UK’s electricity network

We investigate how weather affects the UK’s electricity network, by examining past data of weather-related faults on the transmission and distribution networks. By formalising the current relationship between weather-related faults and weather, we use climate projections from a regional climate model (RCM) to quantitatively assess how the frequency of these faults may change in the future. This study found that the incidences of both lightning and solar heat faults are projected to increase in the future. There is evidence that the conditions that cause flooding faults may increase in the future, but a reduction cannot be ruled out. Due to the uncertainty associated with future wind projections, there is no clear signal associated with the future frequency of wind and gale faults, however snow, sleet and blizzard faults are projected to decrease due to a reduction in the number of snow days.     

Measurement of methane flux over an evergreen coniferous forest canopy using a relaxed eddy accumulation system with tuneable diode laser spectroscopy detection

Very few studies have conducted long-term observations of methane (CH₄) flux over forest canopies. In this study, we continuously measured CH₄ fluxes over an evergreen coniferous (Japanese cypress) forest canopy throughout 1?year, using a micrometeorological relaxed eddy accumulation (REA) system with tuneable diode laser spectroscopy (TDLS) detection. The Japanese cypress forest, which is a common forest type in warm-temperate Asian monsoon regions with a wet summer, switched seasonally between a sink and source of CH₄ probably because of competition by methanogens and methanotrophs, which are both influenced by soil conditions (e.g., soil temperature and soil moisture). At hourly to daily timescales, the CH₄ fluxes were sensitive to rainfall, probably because CH₄ emission increased and/or absorption decreased during and after rainfall. The observed canopy-scale fluxes showed complex behaviours beyond those expected from previous plot-scale measurements and the CH₄ fluxes changed from sink to source and vice versa.     

Mechanisms of tropical precipitation biases in climate models

Climate Dynamics - We investigate the possible causes for inter-model spread in tropical zonal-mean precipitation pattern, which is divided into hemispherically symmetric and anti-symmetric modes...     

Glacial conditions that contribute to the regeneration of Fountain Glacier proglacial icing,Bylot Island,Canada

Proglacial icings are one of the most common forms of extrusive ice found in the Canadian Arctic. However, the icing adjacent to Fountain Glacier, Bylot Island, is unique due to its annual cycle of growth and decay, and perennial existence without involving freezing point depression of water due to chemical characteristics. Its regeneration depends on the availability of subglacial water and on the balance between ice accretion and hydro‐thermal erosion. The storage and conduction of the glacial meltwater involved in the accretion of the icing were analyzed by conducting topographic and ground penetrating radar surveys in addition to the modelling of the subglacial drainage network and the thermal characteristics of the glacier base. The reflection power analysis of the geophysical data shows that some areas of the lower ablation zone have a high accumulation of liquid water, particularly beneath the centre part of the glacier along the main supraglacial stream. A dielectric permittivity model of the glacier – sediment interface suggests that a considerable portion of the glacier is warm based; allowing water to flow through unfrozen subglacial sediments towards the proglacial outwash plain. All these glacier‐related characteristics contribute to the annual regeneration of the proglacial icing and allow for portions of the icing to be perennial. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Transboundary impacts on regional ground water modeling in Texas

Recent legislation required regional grassroots water resources planning across the entire state of Texas. The Texas Water Development Board (TWDB), the state's primary water resource planning agency, divided the state into 16 planning regions. Each planning group developed plans to manage both ground water and surface water sources and to meet future demands of various combinations of domestic, agricultural, municipal, and industrial water consumers. This presentation describes the challenges in developing a ground water model for the Llano Estacado Regional Water Planning Group (LERWPG), whose region includes 21 counties in the Southern High Plains of Texas. While surface water is supplied to several cities in this region, the vast majority of the regional water use comes from the High Plains aquifer system, often locally referred to as the Ogallala Aquifer. Over 95% of the ground water demand is for irrigated agriculture. The LERWPG had to predict the impact of future TWDB-projected water demands, as provided by the TWDB, on the aquifer for the period 2000 to 2050. If detrimental impacts were noted, alternative management strategies must be proposed. While much effort was spent on evaluating the current status of the ground water reserves, an appropriate numerical model of the aquifer system was necessary to demonstrate future impacts of the predicted withdrawals as well as the effects of the alternative strategies. The modeling effort was completed in the summer of 2000. This presentation concentrates on the political, scientific, and nontechnical issues in this planning process that complicated the modeling effort. Uncertainties in data, most significantly in distribution and intensity of recharge and withdrawals, significantly impacted the calibration and predictive modeling efforts. Four predictive scenarios, including baseline projections, recurrence of the drought of record, precipitation enhancement, and reduced irrigation demand, were simulated to identify counties at risk of low final ground water storage volume or low levels of satisfied demand by 2050.     

Influence of shear angle on hangingwall deformation during tectonic inversion

Tectonic inversion is a common phenomenon in island arc settings, especially in back‐arc basins. The reactivation of normal faults as thrusts, triggered by tectonic inversion, produces typical inversion fault‐related folds and thrusts in the hangingwall. These hangingwall inversion geometries are affected by two factors: the geometry of the underlying master fault and the angle of inclined simple shear relative to the regional dip of strata, in the case that the deformation is approximated by simple shear. This study employed numerical simulations to analyse the influence of the antithetic shear angle on the geometry of the hangingwall and displacement along the master fault. The simulation results reveal that a steeply inclined shear vector during extension produces a narrow, steep‐sided half‐graben, whereas a gently inclined shear produces a wide, open basin. After tectonic inversion, a tight anticline is formed under steeply inclined shear, whereas an open anticline is formed under gently inclined shear. Antithetic shear results in reduced total displacement along the master fault, and the greater the angle between the shear direction and the regional dip, the greater the displacement along the master fault. Because the deformation geometry of syn‐extension layers is affected by extension followed by contraction, a change in the shear angle during tectonic inversion produces a wide variety of deformation geometries. Comparison of the simulation results with the results of analogue modelling suggests that the shear angle decreases by 5° during the transition from extension to tectonic inversion and that such a change may be commonly observed in natural geological structures. These results highlight the benefits of numerical simulations, which can be used to readily examine a variety of constraining parameters and thereby lead to a better understanding of the mechanism of hangingwall deformation, avoiding erroneous estimates of the amount of fault displacement.