Reducing standard errors by incorporating spatial autocorrelation into a measurement scheme for soil carbon credits

Several studies have suggested that geostatistical techniques could be employed to reduce overall transactions costs associated with contracting for soil C credits by increasing the efficacy of sampling protocols used to measure C-credits. In this paper, we show how information about the range of spatial autocorrelation can be used in a measurement scheme to reduce the size of the confidence intervals that bound estimates of the mean number of C-credits generated per hectare. A tighter confidence interval around the mean number of C-credits sequestered could increase producer payments for each hectare enrolled in a contract to supply C-credits. An empirical application to dry land cropping systems in three regions of Montana shows that information about the spatial autocorrelation exhibited by soil C could be extremely valuable for reducing transactions costs associated with contracts for C-credits but the benefits are not uniform across all regions or cropping systems. Accounting for spatial autocorrelation greatly reduced the standard errors and narrowed the confidence intervals associated with sample estimates of the mean number of C-credits produced per hectare. For the payment mechanism considered in this paper, tighter confidence intervals around the mean number of C-credits created per hectare enrolled could increase producer payments by more than 100 percent under a C-contract.     

Logic-tree Approach for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis and its Applications to the Japanese Coasts

For Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA), we propose a logic-tree approach to construct tsunami hazard curves (relationship between tsunami height and probability of exceedance) and present some examples for Japan for the purpose of quantitative assessments of tsunami risk for important coastal facilities. A hazard curve is obtained by integration over the aleatory uncertainties, and numerous hazard curves are obtained for different branches of logic-tree representing epistemic uncertainty. A PTHA consists of a tsunami source model and coastal tsunami height estimation. We developed the logic-tree models for local tsunami sources around Japan and for distant tsunami sources along the South American subduction zones. Logic-trees were made for tsunami source zones, size and frequency of tsunamigenic earthquakes, fault models, and standard error of estimated tsunami heights. Numerical simulation rather than empirical relation was used for estimating the median tsunami heights. Weights of discrete branches that represent alternative hypotheses and interpretations were determined by the questionnaire survey for tsunami and earthquake experts, whereas those representing the error of estimated value were determined on the basis of historical data. Examples of tsunami hazard curves were illustrated for the coastal sites, and uncertainty in the tsunami hazard was displayed by 5-, 16-, 50-, 84- and 95-percentile and mean hazard curves.     

Influence of shear angle on hangingwall deformation during tectonic inversion

Tectonic inversion is a common phenomenon in island arc settings, especially in back‐arc basins. The reactivation of normal faults as thrusts, triggered by tectonic inversion, produces typical inversion fault‐related folds and thrusts in the hangingwall. These hangingwall inversion geometries are affected by two factors: the geometry of the underlying master fault and the angle of inclined simple shear relative to the regional dip of strata, in the case that the deformation is approximated by simple shear. This study employed numerical simulations to analyse the influence of the antithetic shear angle on the geometry of the hangingwall and displacement along the master fault. The simulation results reveal that a steeply inclined shear vector during extension produces a narrow, steep‐sided half‐graben, whereas a gently inclined shear produces a wide, open basin. After tectonic inversion, a tight anticline is formed under steeply inclined shear, whereas an open anticline is formed under gently inclined shear. Antithetic shear results in reduced total displacement along the master fault, and the greater the angle between the shear direction and the regional dip, the greater the displacement along the master fault. Because the deformation geometry of syn‐extension layers is affected by extension followed by contraction, a change in the shear angle during tectonic inversion produces a wide variety of deformation geometries. Comparison of the simulation results with the results of analogue modelling suggests that the shear angle decreases by 5° during the transition from extension to tectonic inversion and that such a change may be commonly observed in natural geological structures. These results highlight the benefits of numerical simulations, which can be used to readily examine a variety of constraining parameters and thereby lead to a better understanding of the mechanism of hangingwall deformation, avoiding erroneous estimates of the amount of fault displacement.     

Fossil carotenoids and paleolimnology of meromictic Mahoney Lake,British Columbia,Canada

Vertical distribution of fossil carotenoids in a sediment core from meromictic Mahoney Lake was studied. Besides okenone and demethylated okenone, lutein and zeaxanthin and-carotene isomers were identified. No carotenoids typical for purple nonsulfur or green sulfur bacteria were detected. The ratio of zeaxanthin to lutein (above 1:1 in all samples) indicates a dominance of cyanobacteria over green algae in the phytoplankton assemblages of the past. Okenone, which is found exclusively in Chromatiaceae, was the dominating carotenoid in all sediment zones.The oldest sediment layers containing okenone were deposited 11 000 years ago. Between 9000 and 7000 and since 3000 years b.p., Chromatiaceae reached a considerable biomass in the lake. Vertical changes in okenone concentration were not related to changes of paleotemperatures. In contrast, okenone concentrations decreased during periods of volcanic ash input. During most of the lake history, however, mean okenone concentrations were positively correlated with sedimentation rates. This indicates that vertical changes of okenone concentration in the sediment reflect past changes of purple sulfur bacterial biomass in the lake.According to these results, the past limnology of Mahoney Lake resembled that of the present with a sulfide-containing monimolimnion and a well-developed population of okenone-bearing purple sulfur bacteria.     

Tumbi Landslide, Papua New Guinea: rainfall induced?

On 24 January 2012, a fatal landslide with an estimated volume of 3 Mm³ hit villagers and infrastructure in the Tagali Valley, Southern Highlands Province, Papua New Guinea (PNG). Although a moderate event by PNG standards, the associated human casualties and infrastructure destruction give a human as well as a scientific need to review the potential causes for the event. PNG experiences numerous landslides annually, most of which are trigged either by rainfall events or seismic activity. Here, we review the short-term rainfall patterns leading up to the slope failure at Tumbi Quarry and compare the rainfall accumulations obtained over durations of 30, 60 and 90 days prior to the landslide, with comparable rainfall accumulations obtained for other failures observed in PNG over a 12-year period. Additionally, a review of long-term rainfall over a period of 6 months prior to the failure is completed as well as an assessment of seismic activity. Based on our analysis, we believe a seismic trigger to be very unlikely, while the increase in rainfall in the 2 weeks prior to the failure in conjunction with a high-intensity rainfall event at the end of October 2011 could have had a greater influence in enhancing rather than restraining slope failure. This, in addition to natural denudational processes, geological structure and the anthropogenic activity in the vicinity of the landslide, could all have served to affect slope stability.     

From subduction to transform motion: a seabeam survey of the Hellenic trench system

Preliminary results of a multi-narrow beam survey of the Hellenic trench system, in the Eastern Mediterranean, are presented. The southwestern Ionian branch is divided in small basins, partly filled with Pleistocene sediments. The morphology suggests that the basins are deformed by a compressional stress acting roughly perpendicularly to the trench along N50°E. This direction is the direction of the regional slip vector of the shallow thrust-type earthquakes. The structure of the southeastern Pliny-Strabo branch is quite different. Narrow en-e´chelon slots, oriented N40°E, have been mapped within the main troughs oriented N60°E. The regional earthquake slip vector is also oriented along N40°E. We conclude that the Hellenic trench system is an active subduction system, dominated by thrust along the Ionian branch and by transform motion along the Pliny-Strabo branch.     

Petrology and geochronology of basalt breccia from the 1996 earthquake swarm of Loihi seamount, Hawaii: magmatic history of its 1996 eruption

 Samples of basalt were collected during the Rapid Response cruise to Loihi seamount from a breccia that was probably created by the July to August 1996 Loihi earthquake swarm, the largest swarm ever recorded from a Hawaiian volcano. ²¹⁰Po–²¹⁰Pb dating of two fresh lava blocks from this breccia indicates that they were erupted during the first half of 1996, making this the first documented historical eruption of Loihi. Sonobuoys deployed during the August 1996 cruise recorded popping noises north of the breccia site, indicating that the eruption may have been continuing during the swarm. All of the breccia lava fragments are tholeiitic, like the vast majority of Loihi's most recent lavas. Reverse zoning at the rim of clinopyroxene phenocrysts, and the presence of two chemically distinct olivine phenocryst populations, indicate that the magma for the lavas was mixed just prior to eruption. The trace element geochemistry of these lavas indicates there has been a reversal in Loihi's temporal geochemical trend. Although the new Loihi lavas are similar isotopically and geochemically to recent Kilauea lavas and the mantle conduits for these two volcanoes appear to converge at depth, distinct trace element ratios for their recent lavas preclude common parental magmas for these two active volcanoes. The mineralogy of Loihi's recent tholeiitic lavas signify that they crystallized at moderate depths (∼8–9 km) within the volcano, which is approximately 1 km below the hypocenters for earthquakes from the 1996 swarm. Taken together, the petrological and seismic evidence indicates that Loihi's current magma chamber is considerably deeper than the shallow magma chamber (∼3–4 km) in the adjoining active shield volcanoes. Received: 21 August 1997 / Accepted: 15 February 1998     

Fate and transport of pollutants through a municipal solid waste landfill leachate in Sri Lanka

This study focuses on the characterization of leachate generated from Gohagoda dumpsite in Kandy, Sri Lanka, assessment of its spatial and temporal variations, and identification of subsurface canals and perched water bodies in the wetland system affected by the leachate flow. Leachate samples were collected monthly throughout dry and rainy seasons from different points of the leachate drainage channel over a period of 1 year and they were tested for quality parameters: pH, temperature, electrical conductivity, total dissolved soils, alkalinity, hardness, total solids, volatile solids, total suspended solids, volatile suspended solids, biochemical oxygen demand (BOD₅), chemical oxygen demand, nitrate-nitrogen, nitrite-nitrogen, phosphates, ammonium-nitrogen, chloride, dissolved organic carbon, total organic carbon and heavy metals. Sequential soil extraction procedures were performed for the characterization of leachate-affected local soil. A geophysical survey using direct current resistivity technique was conducted at locations downstream of the dumpsite. Leachate characteristics indicated that the leachate is in the methanogenic phase and the results strongly suggest that the leachate may be polluting the river where the leachate is discharged directly. Leachate exceeds the allowable limits of Sri Lankan wastewater discharge standards for many of the parameters. Significant difference (P < 0.05) was observed for most of organic and inorganic parameters among all sampling locations. Many parameters showed a negative correlation with pH. The affected soils showed high heavy metal concentrations. Resistivity study confirmed a confined leachate flow at the near surface with few subsurface canals. However, no separate subsurface plume movement was observed. The results of this research can effectively be used for the establishment of an efficient and effective treatment method for the Gohagoda landfill leachate.     

The use of microstructures for discriminating turbiditic and hemipelagic muds and mudstones

The microstructures of turbiditic and hemipelagic muds and mudstones were investigated using a scanning electron microscope to determine whether there are microstructural features that can differentiate turbiditic from hemipelagic sedimentary processes. Both types of muddy deposits are, in general, characterized by randomly‐oriented clay particles. However, turbiditic muds and mudstones also characteristically contain aggregates of ‘edge‐to‐face’ contacts between clay particles with long‐axis lengths of up to 30 μm. Based on observations of the clay fabric of the experimentally‐formed muds settled from previously agitated muddy fluids, these types of aggregates, hereafter referred to as ‘aggregates of clay particles’, are interpreted as having been formed by the collision of component flocs in turbulent fluids. Furthermore, some aggregates of clay particles have ‘face‐to‐face’ contacts between clay particles; this is similar to face‐to‐face aggregates characteristically developed in fluid‐mud deposits that are commonly recognized only in turbiditic mudstones, indicating the possibility of a final stage of deposition under highly‐dense conditions, such as temporary fluid muds. In conjunction with earlier proposed lithofacies‐based and ichnofacies‐based criteria, aggregates of clay particles should be useful for the differentiation of turbiditic and hemipelagic muddy deposits, particularly with limited volumes of non‐oriented samples from deep‐water successions.