A modelling framework for evaluation of the hydrological impacts of nature‐based approaches to flood risk management,with application to in‐channel interventions across a 29‐km2 scale catchment in the United Kingdom

Nature‐based approaches to flood risk management are increasing in popularity. Evidence for the effectiveness at the catchment scale of such spatially distributed upstream measures is inconclusive. However, it also remains an open question whether, under certain conditions, the individual impacts of a collection of flood mitigation interventions could combine to produce a detrimental effect on runoff response. A modelling framework is presented for evaluation of the impacts of hillslope and in‐channel natural flood management interventions. It couples an existing semidistributed hydrological model with a new, spatially explicit, hydraulic channel network routing model. The model is applied to assess a potential flood mitigation scheme in an agricultural catchment in North Yorkshire, United Kingdom, comprising various configurations of a single variety of in‐channel feature. The hydrological model is used to generate subsurface and surface fluxes for a flood event in 2012. The network routing model is then applied to evaluate the response to the addition of up to 59 features. Additional channel and floodplain storage of approximately 70,000 m³ is seen with a reduction of around 11% in peak discharge. Although this might be sufficient to reduce flooding in moderate events, it is inadequate to prevent flooding in the double‐peaked storm of the magnitude that caused damage within the catchment in 2012. Some strategies using features specific to this catchment are suggested in order to improve the attenuation that could be achieved by applying a nature‐based approach.     

Combining two filter paper‐based analytical methods to monitor temporal variations in the geochemical properties of fluvial suspended particulate matter

Many of the commonly used analytical techniques for assessing the properties of fluvial suspended particulate matter (SPM) are neither cost effective nor time efficient, making them prohibitive to long‐term high‐resolution monitoring. We present an in‐depth methodology utilizing two types of spectroscopy which, when combined with automatic water samplers, can generate accurate, high‐temporal resolution SPM geochemistry data, inexpensively and semi‐destructively, directly from sediment covered filter papers. A combined X‐ray fluorescence spectroscopy and diffuse reflectance infrared Fourier transform spectroscopy approach is developed to estimate concentrations for a range of elements (Al, Ca, Ce, Fe, K, Mg, Mn, Na, P, Si, Ti) and compounds (organic carbon, Al_dithionate, Al_oxalate, Fe_dithionate, and Fe_oxalate) within SPM trapped on quartz fibre filters at masses as low as 3 mg. Calibration models with small prediction errors are derived, along with mass correction factor models to account for variations in retained SPM mass. Spectral pre‐processing methods are shown to enhance the reproducibility of results for some compounds, and the importance of filter paper selection and homogeneous sample preparation in minimizing spectral interference is emphasized. The geochemical signal from sediment covered filter papers is demonstrated to be time stable enabling samples to be stored for several weeks prior to analysis. Example results obtained during a heavy precipitation event in October 2012 demonstrate the methodology presented here has considerable potential to be utilized for high‐resolution monitoring of SPM geochemistry under a range of in‐stream hydrological conditions. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The potential for agricultural land use change to reduce flood risk in a large watershed

Effects of agricultural land management practices on surface runoff are evident at local scales, but evidence for watershed‐scale impacts is limited. In this study, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model to assess changes in downstream flood risks under different land uses for the large, intensely agricultural, Raccoon River watershed in Iowa. We first developed a baseline model for flood risk based on current land use and typical weather patterns and then simulated the effects of varying levels of increased perennials on the landscape under the same weather patterns. Results suggest that land use changes in the Raccoon River could reduce the likelihood of flood events, decreasing both the number of flood events and the frequency of severe floods. The duration of flood events were not substantially affected by land use change in our assessment. The greatest flood risk reduction was associated with converting all cropland to perennial vegetation, but we found that converting half of the land to perennial vegetation or extended rotations (and leaving the remaining area in cropland) could also have major effects on reducing downstream flooding potential. We discuss the potential costs of adopting the land use change in the watershed to illustrate the scale of subsidies required to induce large‐scale conversion to perennially based systems needed for flood risk reduction. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Characterization of dissolved organic matter across the Subtropical Convergence off the South Island,New Zealand

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) was investigated along a gradient across the Subtropical Convergence (STC) off the South Island, New Zealand. Ultrahigh resolution electrospray ionization Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FT-ICR-MS), excitation emission matrix fluorescence (EEM) spectroscopy, and molecular lignin analysis techniques were used to study this DOM. The analysis revealed a group of compounds found only in the coastal DOM samples, which were also characterized by an elevated terrestrial DOM fluorescence pattern and elevated lignin content if compared to the offshore samples. This group exhibited a high degree of carbon unsaturation, as evident from high double bond equivalence minus oxygen values (DBE-O > 9) and maximum fluorescence intensity. Sulfur-containing molecular formulae for summer DOM samples were much more abundant across the entire transect of the STC compared to winter and exhibited distinctly different hydrogen:carbon and oxygen:carbon elemental ratios, suggesting a possible correlation between biological activity and sulfur compounds. The molecular formulae common to all STC samples were compared with those calculated for DOM extracted from freshwater collected from a stream discharging into Doubtful Sound (West Coast, New Zealand). ESI-FT-ICR-MS measurements undertaken in negative electrospray ionization (ESI?) mode indicated that 30% of the molecular formulae were present in both types of DOM, while in positive ESI mode (ESI+) over 90% of the formulae were present in all samples. Hence, a significant portion of the molecular formulae assigned to the solid-phase extractable DOM pool (SPE-DOM) appear to be identical in oceanic and freshwater samples.     

Dissolved nitrous oxide (N2O) dynamics in agricultural field drains and headwater streams in an intensive arable catchment

Indirect nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions produced by nitrogen (N) leaching into surface water and groundwater bodies are poorly understood in comparison to direct N₂O emissions from soils. In this study, dissolved N₂O concentrations were measured weekly in both lowland headwater streams and subsurface agricultural field drain discharges over a 2‐year period (2013–2015) in an intensive arable catchment, Norfolk, UK. All field drain and stream water samples were found to have dissolved N₂O concentrations higher than the water–air equilibrium concentration, illustrating that all sites were acting as a net source of N₂O emissions to the atmosphere. Soil texture was found to significantly influence field drain N₂O dynamics, with mean concentrations from drains in clay loam soils (5.3 μg N L^?1) being greater than drains in sandy loam soils (4.0 μg N L^?1). Soil texture also impacted upon the relationships between field drain N₂O concentrations and other water quality parameters (pH, flow rate, and nitrate (NO₃) and nitrite (NO₂) concentrations), highlighting possible differences in N₂O production mechanisms in different soil types. Catchment antecedent moisture conditions influenced the storm event mobilisation of N₂O in both field drains and streams, with the greatest concentration increases recorded during precipitation events preceded by prolonged wet conditions. N₂O concentrations also varied seasonally, with the lowest mean concentrations typically occurring during the summer months (JJA). Nitrogen fertiliser application rates and different soil inversion regimes were found to have no effect on dissolved N₂O concentrations, whereas higher N₂O concentrations recorded in field drains under a winter cover crop compared to fallow fields revealed cover crops are an ineffective greenhouse gas emission mitigation strategy. Overall, this study highlights the complex interactions governing the dynamics of dissolved N₂O concentrations in field drains and headwater streams in a lowland intensive agricultural catchment.     

An experimental study of amphibole stability in low-pressure granitic magmas and a revised Al-in-hornblende geobarometer

We report new experimental data on the composition of magmatic amphiboles synthesised from a variety of granite (sensu lato) bulk compositions at near-solidus temperatures and pressures of 0.8–10 kbar. The total aluminium content (Al^tot) of the synthetic calcic amphiboles varies systematically with pressure (P), although the relationship is nonlinear at low pressures (<2.5 kbar). At higher pressures, the relationship resembles that of other experimental studies, which suggests of a general relationship between Al^tot and P that is relatively insensitive to bulk composition. We have developed a new Al-in-hornblende geobarometer that is applicable to granitic rocks with the low-variance mineral assemblage: amphibole + plagioclase (An_15–80) + biotite + quartz + alkali feldspar + ilmenite/titanite + magnetite + apatite. Amphibole analyses should be taken from the rims of grains, in contact with plagioclase and in apparent textural equilibrium with the rest of the mineral assemblage at temperatures close to the haplogranite solidus (725 ± 75 °C), as determined from amphibole–plagioclase thermometry. Mean amphibole rim compositions that meet these criteria can then be used to calculate P (in kbar) from Al^tot (in atoms per formula unit, apfu) according to the expression:

$${\textit{P }}\left( {\text{kbar}} \right) = 0.5 + 0.331\left( 8 \right) \times {\text{Al}}^{\text{tot}} + 0.995\left( 4 \right) \times \left( {{\text{Al}}^{\text{tot}} } \right)^{2}$$

This expression recovers equilibration pressures of our calibrant dataset, comprising both new and published experimental and natural data, to within ±16 % relative uncertainty. An uncertainty of 10 % relative for a typical Al^tot value of 1.5 apfu translates to an uncertainty in pressure estimate of 0.5 kbar, or 15 % relative. Thus the accuracy of the barometer expression is comparable to the precision with which near-solidus amphibole rim composition can be characterised.

     

Testing the suitability of geologic frameworks for extrapolating hydraulic properties across regional scales

The suitability of geologic frameworks for extrapolating hydraulic conductivity (K) to length scales commensurate with hydraulic data is difficult to assess. A novel method is presented for evaluating assumed relations between K and geologic interpretations for regional-scale groundwater modeling. The approach relies on simultaneous interpretation of multiple aquifer tests using alternative geologic frameworks of variable complexity, where each framework is incorporated as prior information that assumes homogeneous K within each model unit. This approach is tested at Pahute Mesa within the Nevada National Security Site (USA), where observed drawdowns from eight aquifer tests in complex, highly faulted volcanic rocks provide the necessary hydraulic constraints. The investigated volume encompasses 40 mi³ (167 km³) where drawdowns traversed major fault structures and were detected more than 2 mi (3.2 km) from pumping wells. Complexity of the five frameworks assessed ranges from an undifferentiated mass of rock with a single unit to 14 distinct geologic units. Results show that only four geologic units can be justified as hydraulically unique for this location. The approach qualitatively evaluates the consistency of hydraulic property estimates within extents of investigation and effects of geologic frameworks on extrapolation. Distributions of transmissivity are similar within the investigated extents irrespective of the geologic framework. In contrast, the extrapolation of hydraulic properties beyond the volume investigated with interfering aquifer tests is strongly affected by the complexity of a given framework. Testing at Pahute Mesa illustrates how this method can be employed to determine the appropriate level of geologic complexity for large-scale groundwater modeling.     

Community‐Derived Standards for LA‐ICP‐MS U‐(Th‐)Pb Geochronology – Uncertainty Propagation,Age Interpretation and Data Reporting

The LA‐ICP‐MS U‐(Th‐)Pb geochronology international community has defined new standards for the determination of U‐(Th‐)Pb ages. A new workflow defines the appropriate propagation of uncertainties for these data, identifying random and systematic components. Only data with uncertainties relating to random error should be used in weighted mean calculations of population ages; uncertainty components for systematic errors are propagated after this stage, preventing their erroneous reduction. Following this improved uncertainty propagation protocol, data can be compared at different uncertainty levels to better resolve age differences. New reference values for commonly used zircon, monazite and titanite reference materials are defined (based on ID‐TIMS) after removing corrections for common lead and the effects of excess ²³⁰Th. These values more accurately reflect the material sampled during the determination of calibration factors by LA‐ICP‐MS analysis. Recommendations are made to graphically represent data only with uncertainty ellipses at 2s and to submit or cite validation data with sample data when submitting data for publication. New data‐reporting standards are defined to help improve the peer‐review process. With these improvements, LA‐ICP‐MS U‐(Th‐)Pb data can be considered more robust, accurate, better documented and quantified, directly contributing to their improved scientific interpretation.     

Potential Salinity and Temperature Futures for the Chesapeake Bay Using a Statistical Downscaling Spatial Disaggregation Framework

Estuaries are productive and ecologically important ecosystems, incorporating environmental drivers from watersheds, rivers, and the coastal ocean. Climate change has potential to modify the physical properties of estuaries, with impacts on resident organisms. However, projections from general circulation models (GCMs) are generally too coarse to resolve important estuarine processes. Here, we statistically downscaled near-surface air temperature and precipitation projections to the scale of the Chesapeake Bay watershed and estuary. These variables were linked to Susquehanna River streamflow using a water balance model and finally to spatially resolved Chesapeake Bay surface temperature and salinity using statistical model trees. The low computational cost of this approach allowed rapid assessment of projected changes from four GCMs spanning a range of potential futures under a high CO₂ emission scenario, for four different downscaling methods. Choice of GCM contributed strongly to the spread in projections, but choice of downscaling method was also influential in the warmest models. Models projected a ~2–5.5 °C increase in surface water temperatures in the Chesapeake Bay by the end of the century. Projections of salinity were more uncertain and spatially complex. Models showing increases in winter-spring streamflow generated freshening in the Upper Bay and tributaries, while models with decreased streamflow produced salinity increases. Changes to the Chesapeake Bay environment have implications for fish and invertebrate habitats, as well as migration, spawning phenology, recruitment, and occurrence of pathogens. Our results underline a potentially expanded role of statistical downscaling to complement dynamical approaches in assessing climate change impacts in dynamically challenging estuaries.