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111.
Influence of uncertain boundary conditions and model structure on flood inundation predictions 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Florian Pappenberger Patrick Matgen Keith J. Beven Jean-Baptiste Henry Laurent Pfister Paul Fraipont de 《Advances in water resources》2006
In this study, the GLUE methodology is applied to establish the sensitivity of flood inundation predictions to uncertainty of the upstream boundary condition and bridges within the modelled region. An understanding of such uncertainties is essential to improve flood forecasting and floodplain mapping. The model has been evaluated on a large data set. This paper shows uncertainty of the upstream boundary can have significant impact on the model results, exceeding the importance of model parameter uncertainty in some areas. However, this depends on the hydraulic conditions in the reach e.g. internal boundary conditions and, for example, the amount of backwater within the modelled region. The type of bridge implementation can have local effects, which is strongly influenced by the bridge geometry (in this case the area of the culvert). However, the type of bridge will not merely influence the model performance within the region of the structure, but also other evaluation criteria such as the travel time. This also highlights the difficulties in establishing which parameters have to be more closely examined in order to achieve better fits. In this study no parameter set or model implementation that fulfils all evaluation criteria could be established. We propose four different approaches to this problem: closer investigation of anomalies; introduction of local parameters; increasing the size of acceptable error bounds; and resorting to local model evaluation. Moreover, we show that it can be advantageous to decouple the classification into behavioural and non-behavioural model data/parameter sets from the calculation of uncertainty bounds. 相似文献
112.
A rhyolitic ash-flow tuff in a hydrothermally active area within the Yellowstone caldera was drilled in 1967, and cores were studied to determine the nature and distribution of primary and secondary mineral phases. The rocks have undergone a complex history of crystallization and hydrothermal alteration since their emplacement 600,000 years ago. During cooling from magmatic temperatures, the glassy groundmass underwent either devitrification to alkali feldspar + α-cristobalite ± tridymite or granophyric crystallization to alkali feldspar + quartz. Associated with the zones of granophyric crystallization are prismatic quartz crystals in cavities similar to those termed miarolitic in plutonic rocks. Vapor-phase alkali feldspar, tridymite, magnetite, and sporadic α-cristobalite were deposited in cavities and in void spaces of pumice fragments. Subsequently, some of the vapor-phase alkali feldspar crystals were replaced by microcrystalline quartz, and the vapor-phase minerals were frosted by a coating of saccharoidal quartz.Hydrothermal minerals occur primarily as linings and fillings of cavities and fractures and as altered mafic phenocrysts. Chalcedony is the dominant mineral related to the present hydrothermal regime and occurs as microcrystalline material mixed with various amounts of hematite and goethite. The chalcedony displays intricate layering and was apparently deposited as opal from silica-rich water. Hematite and goethite also replace both mafic phenocrysts and vapor-phase magnetite. Other conspicuous hydrothermal minerals include montmorillonite, pyrite, mordenite, calcite, and fluorite. Clinoptilolite, erionite, illite, kaolinite, and manganese oxides are sporadic. The hydrothermal minerals show little correlation with temperature, but bladed calcite is restricted to a zone of boiling in the tuff and clearly was deposited when CO2 was lost during boiling.Fractures and breccias filled with chalcedony are common throughout Y-5 and may have been produced by rapid disruption of rock caused by sudden decrease of fluid pressure in fractures, most likely a result of fracturing during resurgent doming in this part of the Yellowstone caldera. The chalcedony probably was deposited as opal or β-cristobalite from a pre-existing silica floc that moved rapidly into the fractures and breccias immediately after the sudden pressure drop. 相似文献
113.
This study shows the usefulness of the semivariogram for modelling sand ripples created by water flows of varied flow intensity. A combination of two mathematical functions is fitted to each sample semivariogram, that is an exponential (or stochastic) component and a periodic component. The parameters of each of these components have direct physical meaning. A non-dimensional ratio combining the two parameters of the exponential model is interpreted as a regularity index (which increases with the degree of regularity of bedform arrangement). This regularity index is inversely related to the Froude number of the flow. The non-dimensional wavelength, estimated from the dominant periodic function, is also inversely and closely related to the Froude number. The wave height, accurately estimated from properties of the two fitted components, is a direct function of flow velocity and is also proportional to the standard deviation of bed elevations. The bedform shape introduces a considerable discrepancy between the generally assumed normal frequency distribution and the empirical distributions of bed height. The series of bed elevations are generally characterized by a mixture of normal distributions having the same variance but different means. The calculation of a covariance assuming a constant and single mean (as in spectral analysis) can therefore be misleading and the problem may be avoided by using the semivariogram. 相似文献
114.
Natural wetlands perform significant sewage treatment, but artificial reedbeds are likely to be more reliable and effective. The processes responsible for purification in wetlands and reedbeds are described in this paper, together with an outline of the experimental reedbeds which have been established in the UK up to 1987. Major research needs are outlined. 相似文献
115.
116.
An investigation has been conducted to identify the key parameters that are likely to scale laboratory sediment deposits to the field scale. Two types of bed formation were examined: one where sediment is manually placed and screeded and the second where sediment is fed into a running flume. This later technique created deposits through sequential cycles of sediment transport and deposition. Detailed bed surface topography measurements have been made over a screeded bed and three fed beds. In addition, bulk subsurface porosity and hydraulic conductivity have been measured. By comparing the four beds, results revealed that certain physical properties of the screeded bed were clearly different from those of the fed beds. The screeded bed had a random organization of grains on both the surface and within the subsurface. The fed beds exhibited greater surface and subsurface organization and complexity, and had a number of properties that closely resembled those found for water‐worked gravel beds. The surfaces were water‐worked and armoured and there was preferential particle orientation and direction of imbrication in the subsurface. This suggested that fed beds are able to simulate, in a simplified manner, both the surface and subsurface properties of established gravel‐bed river deposits. The near‐bed flow properties were also compared. It revealed that the use of a screeded bed will typically cause an underestimation in the degree of temporal variability in the flow. Furthermore, time‐averaged streamwise velocities were found to be randomly organized over the screeded bed but were organized into long streamwise flow structures over the fed beds. It clearly showed that caution should be taken when comparing velocity measurements over screeded beds with water‐worked beds, and that the formation of fed beds offers an improved way of investigating intragravel flow and sediment–water interface exchange processes in gravel‐bed rivers at a laboratory scale. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
117.
Richard E. Brazier Keith J. Beven Steven G. Anthony John S. Rowan 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2001,26(12):1333-1352
An integrated modelling approach (MIRSED) which utilizes the process‐based soil erosion model WEPP (Water Erosion Prediction Project) is presented for the assessment of hillslope‐scale soil erosion at five sites throughout England and Wales. The methodology draws upon previous uncertainty analysis of the WEPP hillslope soil erosion model by the authors to qualify model results within an uncertainty framework. A method for incorporating model uncertainty from a range of sources is discussed as a first step towards using and learning from results produced through the GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) technique. Results are presented and compared to available observed data, which illustrate that levels of uncertainty are significant and must be taken into account if a meaningful understanding of output from models such as WEPP is to be achieved. Furthermore, the collection of quality, observed data is underlined for two reasons: as an essential tool in the development of soil erosion modelling and also to allow further constraint of model uncertainty. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
118.
T.E.C. Keith J.M. Thompson R.A. Hutchinson L.D. White 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》1992,49(3-4)
Meteoric waters from cold springs and streams outside of the 1912 eruptive deposits filling the Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes (VTTS) and in the upper parts of the two major rivers draining the 1912 deposits have similar chemical trends. Thermal springs issue in the mid-valley area along a 300-m lateral section of ash-flow tuff, and range in temperature from 21 to 29.8°C in early summer and from 15 to 17°C in mid-summer. Concentrations of major and minor chemical constituents in the thermal waters are nearly identical regardless of temperature. Waters in the downvalley parts of the rivers draining the 1912 deposits are mainly mixtures of cold meteoric waters and thermal waters of which the mid-valley thermal spring waters are representative. The weathering reactions of cold waters with the 1912 deposits appear to have stabilized and add only subordinate amounts of chemical constituents to the rivers relative to those contributed by the thermal waters. Isotopic data indicate that the mid-valley thermal spring waters are meteoric, but data is inconclusive regarding the heat source. The thermal waters could be either from a shallow part of a hydrothermal system beneath the 1912 vent region or from an incompletely cooled, welded tuff lens deep in the 1912 ash-flow sheet of the upper River Lethe area.Bicarbonate-sulfate waters resulting from interaction of near-surface waters and the cooling 1953–1968 southwest Trident plug issue from thermal springs south of Katmai Pass and near Mageik Creek, although the Mageik Creek spring waters are from a well-established, more deeply circulating hydrothermal system. Katmai caldera lake waters are a result of acid gases from vigorous drowned fumaroles dissolving in lake waters composed of snowmelt and precipitation. 相似文献
119.
A Permeable Reactive Barrier for Treatment of Heavy Metals 总被引:8,自引:0,他引:8
120.
Two Hercynian duplexes are developed in Viséan limestones in the Basse Normandie quarry. The lower duplex is completely exposed in a subvertical quarry wall; the partially exposed upper duplex lies immediately above the lower duplex. The duplexes are both located in the footwall of the Hydrequent thrust which emplaced Devonian clastic sediments above the Viséan limestones. The lower duplex exposes all the internal thrusts, a reference bed of chalky limestone, the roof and floor thrusts, and the duplex tip. The duplex has been graphically restored to its pre-deformation geometry by line-length and area balancing and its resultant geometry is close to the model of Boyer & Elliott. The lower duplex shortened by two different mechanisms, an initial phase of layer-parallel shortening which produced no cleavage, followed by thrust imbrication. The average contraction of the front portion of the duplex was ?49% (natural strain) of which ?27% is layer-parallel shortening and ?22% is thrust imbrication. However, locally the bulk shortening increases from zero at the duplex tip to over ?120% in a down-dip direction. The area balancing provides the most accurate estimates of bulk shortening; line-length balance calculations give minimum estimates only. An area balance on the whole of the lower duplex gives a bulk shortening of ?84%. An area balance of the upper duplex yields an average contraction of ?75% and the total contraction produced by both duplexes is ?92%. 相似文献