Thorium adsorption in the ocean: reversibility and distribution amongst particle sizes

Experiments have been carried out to determine whether the adsorption of Th by marine suspended particles is a reversible process. The results indicate reversibility on a time scale of hours. The distribution of Th between the ‘dissolved’ state (<0.22 μm particle size) and various particle size fractions has been compared with predictions based on a hyperbolic size distribution of marine particles assuming spherical geometry and surface adsorption. Thorium is present in small particles to a much smaller degree than such a model would predict, so that the use of 1 μm pore size filters to separate ‘dissolved’ and ‘particulate’ Th does not introduce serious errors. The implications of these results on the reversible exchange model of Bacon and Anderson (1982) and on the settling model of Tsunogai and Minagawa (1978) are discussed.     

Calculated geochronology and stress field orientations along the Hawaiian chain

A new method has been discovered for calculating ages of the main shield building stages of volcanoes along the Hawaiian chain from Kilauea to the Hawaiian-Emperor bend. The method is based on a graphical technique for hypothetical subtraction of distance intervals that theoretically represent regions of simultaneous volcanism along adjacent or nearly en-echelon loci of volcanism. Distances along the chain, measured from Kilauea, when progressively foreshortened by the distances of hypothetical “collapse” and plotted versus existing age data are found to give linear age-distance relationships. A calibration graph is presented that agrees closely with the measured ages in 17 of the 20 existing dated volcanoes. The criterion for simultaneous activity on different loci is based on the concept of equal azimuths of synchronous volcanic propagation within coeval segments of the chain. This is the predicted relationship when magmatic fluids inject the lithosphere along directions normal to a nearly horizontal least principal stress. It appears that the Pacific plate has been subjected to oscillatory, but principally clockwise, rotations of horizontal stress components during the last 40 m.y.     

Stereoisomers of isovaline in the Murchison meteorite

Isovaline is present in the Murchison meteorite as a racemic mixture (about equal concentrations of the R and S enantiomers). Since isovaline does not have a hydrogen atom on its asymmetric α-carbon atom, the racemic mixture could not have formed by commonly accepted mechanisms of racemization. Thus, isovaline in the meteorite most probably was synthesized as a racemic mixture and is not the result of the racemization of either the R or S enantiomer. Other chiral amino acids in the meteorite are present as racemic mixtures, and were probably synthesized in a similar manner by abiotic, extraterrestrial processes.     

The seventh facet of uncertainty: wrong assumptions,unknowns and surprises in the dynamics of human–water systems

ABSTRACT

The scientific literature has focused on uncertainty as randomness, while limited credit has been given to what we call here the “seventh facet of uncertainty”, i.e. lack of knowledge. This paper identifies three types of lack of understanding: (i) known unknowns, which are things we know we don’t know; (ii) unknown unknowns, which are things we don’t know we don’t know; and (iii) wrong assumptions, things we think we know, but we actually don’t know. Here we discuss each of these with reference to the study of the dynamics of human–water systems, which is one of the main topics of Panta Rhei, the current scientific decade of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS), focusing on changes in hydrology and society. In the paper, we argue that interdisciplinary studies of socio-hydrological dynamics leading to a better understanding of human–water interactions can help in coping with wrong assumptions and known unknowns. Also, being aware of the existence of unknown unknowns, and their potential capability to generate surprises or black swans, suggests the need to complement top-down approaches, based on quantitative predictions of water-related hazards, with bottom-up approaches, based on societal vulnerabilities and possibilities of failure.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor S. Weijs     

Historical seismicity of the southeastern Caribbean and tectonic implications

We have relocated the twenty-eight largest magnitude (4.3M _s 7.3) historical (1922–1963) earthquakes of the southeastern Caribbean. We also present new focal mechanisms for seven of these events. The relocations are based on reported ISSP andS arrival times that we analyzed using generalized linear inversion techniques. The new focal mechanisms were constrained by first motionP polarities as reported by the ISS and as picked by us where records were available, and by the polarities and ratios ofSH andsSH, andSV andsSV arrivals that we determined from seismograms. The results of the relocations are commensurate with the distribution of seismicity observed in the recent era: hypocenters are shallow and intermediate in depth (0–200 km), and the events occur almost exclusively in areas known to be currently seismic. The frequent seismic activity in the vicinity of the Paria Peninsula, Venezuela, is clearly a persistent feature of the regional earthquake pattern; intermediate depth earthquakes indicative of subduction beneath the Caribbean plate occur here and along the Lesser Antilles arc. The Grenadines seismic gap is confirmed as an area of low seismic moment release throughout the historical era. Trinidad and the eastern Gulf of Paria were also largely quiescent.The new focal mechanisms, despite being a sparse data set, give significant insight into both subduction processes along the Lesser Antilles arc and into the shallow deformation of the Caribbean-South America plate boundary zone. The largest earthquake to have occurred in this region, the 19 March 1953 event (M _m =7.01), is a Lesser Antilles slab deformation event, and another earthquake in this region of the Lesser Antilles is probably a rarely-observed interplate thrust event. Shallow deformation in the plate boundary zone is complex and, near the Paria Penninsula, involves mixed southeastward thrusting and dextral strike-slip on east-striking faults, and secondarily, normal faulting. Bending of the subducting Atlantic-South American plate also seems to generate seisms. The rather high ratio of intraplate deformation to interplate deformation observed along the Lesser Antilles subduction zone in the more recent era seems to have been operative in the historical era as well.     

Evidence for high water levels in the Erie basin during the Younger Dryas chronozone

A high water phase in the Lake Erie basin is identified from a variety of evidence for the period 11.0 ka to 10.5 ka. It is believed to correspond to the first Agassiz inflow to the upper Great Lakes (Main Lake Algonquin phase) when Agassiz waters discharged in both catastrophic and equilibrium modes to Lake Superior. After allowing for differential isostatic rebound, a computational model is used to estimate the lake levels in the Erie basin needed to generate Agassiz-equivalent discharges out of the basin into Lake Ontario. Computations suggest that Lake Tonawanda spillways would be re-activated by the high lake levels needed to sustain Agassiz-equivalent discharges. Existing published evidence from the Erie basin, Niagara River, and western New York (including ¹⁴C dates), is consistent with this interpretation. Additional evidence from the Niagara Peninsula (pollen spectra and geomorphology) supports the inference that extensive flooding of the southern Niagara Peninsula (Lake Wainfleet) occurred due to high water levels in the Erie basin. In the Niagara Peninsula, very shallow washover spillways would only operate when standard hydrologic variations of lake level in the Erie basin coincided with short term high levels driven by catastrophic inflows to the Great Lakes from Lake Agassiz. We support the view of Lewis & Anderson (1992) that a meltwater flux from Agassiz inflows reached Lake Erie.     

Transport of stable isotopes,kinetics, dispersive advection,and the ‘isotopic fronts’ of Baumgartner and Rumble (1988)

Baumgartner and Rumble (1988) apply a kinetic continuum theory for stable isotope transport to unidimensional infiltration of fluid into rock. Their numerical applications are restricted to the simplified case of rapid isotope exchange between phases, where the sharp isotope fronts of pure advection are distended by dispersive mechanisms only. However, kinetic limitations of isotope exchange are potentially an equally important distending mechanism, and it will only rarely be possible to ascribe front gradients to diffusion/dispersion alone. Abrupt isotopic changes at vein boundaries are more often a secondary signal of lithologic change than the expression of a retarded advective front. At such boundaries, diffusion and dispersion play a role that is comparable to, or greater than, that of advection, so that the detailed shapes of isotope fronts depend upon boundary conditions for the infiltration process. Zerodimensional box models have legitimate, if limited, uses in the modelling of fluid-rock interaction, and are reexamined.     

Age constraints on Pleistocene megafauna at Tight Entrance Cave in southwestern Australia

A well-stratified succession of fossiliferous sediments occurs in Tight Entrance Cave, southwestern Australia. These infill deposits contain the remains of megafauna and have accumulated intermittently since the Middle Pleistocene: >137, 137–119 and 50–29 ka, according to the results of ¹⁴C, U–Th, ESR and OSL dating techniques. Megafaunal species richness was highest in the latest part of the penultimate glacial maximum and during the subsequent last interglacial (137–119 ka), but remains are less abundant following an apparent 70 ka depositional hiatus in the sequence. Most megafaunal specimens from the upper (<44 ka) units are fragmentary, and reworking from older strata cannot yet be ruled out. However, one specimen of Simosthenurus occidentalis (a large extinct kangaroo), a pair of articulated dentaries showing no signs of secondary transportation, was found within a sedimentary layer deposited between 48 and 50 ka. This represents one of the youngest demonstrably in situ occurrences of an Australian megafaunal taxon.     

Defining a Digital Earth System

In a 1998 speech before the California Science Center in Los Angeles, then US Vice‐President Al Gore called for a global undertaking to build a multi‐faceted computing system for education and research, which he termed “Digital Earth.” The vision was that of a system providing access to what is known about the planet and its inhabitants’ activities – currently and for any time in history – via responses to queries and exploratory tools. Furthermore, it would accommodate modeling extensions for predicting future conditions. Organized efforts towards realizing that vision have diminished significantly since 2001, but progress on key requisites has been made. As the 10 year anniversary of that influential speech approaches, we re‐examine it from the perspective of a systematic software design process and find the envisioned system to be in many respects inclusive of concepts of distributed geolibraries and digital atlases. A preliminary definition for a particular digital earth system as: “a comprehensive, distributed geographic information and knowledge organization system,” is offered and discussed. We suggest that resumption of earlier design and focused research efforts can and should be undertaken, and may prove a worthwhile “Grand Challenge” for the GIScience community.     

The July 2007 rock and ice avalanches at Mount Steele, St. Elias Mountains, Yukon, Canada

A large rock and ice avalanche occurred on the north face of Mount Steele, southwest Yukon Territory, Canada, on July 24, 2007. In the days and weeks preceding the landslide, several smaller avalanches initiated from the same slope. The ice and rock debris traveled a maximum horizontal distance 5.76 km with a maximum vertical descent of 2,160 m, leaving a deposit 3.66 km² in area on Steele Glacier. The seismic magnitude estimated from long-period surface waves (M _s) is 5.2. Modeling of the waveforms suggests an estimated duration of approximately 100 s and an average velocity of between 35 and 65 m/s. This landslide is one of 18 large rock avalanches known to have occurred since 1899 on slopes adjacent to glaciers in western Canada. We describe the setting, reconstruct the event chronology and present a preliminary characterization of the Mount Steele ice and rock avalanches based on field reconnaissance, analysis of seismic records and an airborne LiDAR survey. We also present the results of a successful dynamic simulation for the July 24 event.