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Keith D. Suter 《Marine Policy》1983,7(3):213-215
Disarmament has again become a major public concern in many nations. The main manifestations of this development have been demonstrations and marches and mass media attention to the possible consequences of a nuclear war. Less publicized has been governmental work, including that at the United Nations, in negotiating disarmament treaties. 相似文献
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Influence of uncertain boundary conditions and model structure on flood inundation predictions 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Florian Pappenberger Patrick Matgen Keith J. Beven Jean-Baptiste Henry Laurent Pfister Paul Fraipont de 《Advances in water resources》2006
In this study, the GLUE methodology is applied to establish the sensitivity of flood inundation predictions to uncertainty of the upstream boundary condition and bridges within the modelled region. An understanding of such uncertainties is essential to improve flood forecasting and floodplain mapping. The model has been evaluated on a large data set. This paper shows uncertainty of the upstream boundary can have significant impact on the model results, exceeding the importance of model parameter uncertainty in some areas. However, this depends on the hydraulic conditions in the reach e.g. internal boundary conditions and, for example, the amount of backwater within the modelled region. The type of bridge implementation can have local effects, which is strongly influenced by the bridge geometry (in this case the area of the culvert). However, the type of bridge will not merely influence the model performance within the region of the structure, but also other evaluation criteria such as the travel time. This also highlights the difficulties in establishing which parameters have to be more closely examined in order to achieve better fits. In this study no parameter set or model implementation that fulfils all evaluation criteria could be established. We propose four different approaches to this problem: closer investigation of anomalies; introduction of local parameters; increasing the size of acceptable error bounds; and resorting to local model evaluation. Moreover, we show that it can be advantageous to decouple the classification into behavioural and non-behavioural model data/parameter sets from the calculation of uncertainty bounds. 相似文献
57.
Marcos E. C. Bernardes Mark A. Davidson Keith R. Dyer Ken J. George 《Ocean Dynamics》2006,56(3-4):186-197
The main objective of this paper is to address the principal mechanisms involved in the medium-term (order of months to years) morphodynamic evolution of estuaries through the application of a process-based numerical modelling. The Teign estuary (Teignmouth, UK) is the selected site. The system is forced by the macrotidal semi-diurnal tide in the English Channel and is perturbed to a minor extent by high river discharge events (freshets). Although waves have a definite influence on the adjacent coastal area, Wells (Teignmouth Quay Development Environmental Statement: Changes to Physical Processes. Report R.984c:140. ABP Marine Environmental Research Ltd., Southampton, 2002b) suggested that swell waves do not enter the estuary. Hence, wave effects are neglected in this study, as only tides and the river discharge are taken into account. The sediment grain size is highly variable, but mainly sandy. Within the frame of the COAST3D project (), four bathymetric surveys of the adjacent coastal area were carried out at a nearly weekly intervals. The outer estuary and the adjacent coastal area were also surveyed every 6 months as part of the COASTVIEW project (). Based on these data and on continuously measured parameters, such as water level, waves, wind and river discharge, numerical modelling of the morphodynamic processes can be tested. To replicate the morphological changes in the medium-term within a feasible simulation time, forcing conditions are reduced through the use of an input reduction method (called ensemble technique). In this study, simulations are based on the coupling between Telemac-2D and its non-cohesive sediment transport module, Sisyphe (version 5.3 for both modules). Three different sediment transport formulae were tested: (1) Engelund and Hansen (A monograph on sediment transport in alluvial streams, 3rd edn. Technological University of Denmark, Copenhagen, 1967) including the modifications proposed by Chollet and Cunge (J Hydraul Eng 17(1):1–13, 1979); (2) Bijker (Mechanics of sediment transport by the combination of waves and current. In: Design and reliability of coastal structures. 23rd international conference on Coastal Engineering, pp 147–173, 1968) and (3) Soulsby (Dynamics of Marine Sands. A manual for practical applications. HR Wallingford, Wallingford, p 142, 1997) modified version of van Rijn [J Hydraul Eng 110(10):1431–1456, 1984a, J Hydraul Eng 110(11):1613–1641, 1984b] formulation. Both a qualitative (i.e. visual comparison) and a quantitative tool [Brier Skill Score (BSS); described in Sutherland et al. in Coast Eng 51:917–939, 2004b] are applied to assess the similarity of simulations when compared to model predictions and observations. Tests confirmed the reliability and time efficiency of the ensemble technique, since it reproduced very well the results of a reference run, a computation based on the observed boundary conditions. For the spring-neap cycle modelled, the BSS was of 0.91 (a perfect modelling would have a BSS of 1), with a reduction in the simulation time on the order of 80%. For the 6-month-period simulation, results were also excellent: BSS=0.92 and a computer time reduction of 85%. In principle, this method has the advantage of being applied to any process-based numerical model. 相似文献
58.
This paper highlights an analytical method based on mass measurement that can be used to directly quantify 129I in groundwater samples at concentrations below the maximum contaminant level (MCL) without the need for sample pre-concentration or extraction. Samples were analyzed on a Perkin Elmer ELAN DRC II ICP-MS after minimal dilution using O2 as the reaction gas. Analysis of continuing calibration verification standards indicated that the dynamic reaction cell (DRC) mode could be used for quantitative analysis of 129I in samples below the MCL (0.0057 ng/mL or 1 pCi/L). The low analytical detection limit of 129I analysis in the DRC mode coupled with minimal sample dilution (1.02x) resulted in a final estimated quantification limit of 0.0051 ng/mL. Subsequent analysis of three groundwater samples containing 129I resulted in fully quantitative results in the DRC mode, and spike recovery analyses performed on all three samples confirmed that the groundwater matrix did not adversely impact the analysis of 129I in the DRC mode. This analytical approach has been proven to be a cost-effective, high-throughput technique for the direct, quantitative analysis of 129I in groundwater samples at environmentally relevant concentrations that reach below the current MCL. 相似文献
59.
Variations in the crustal structure beneath western Turkey 总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6
Paul Saunders Keith Priestley & Tuncay Taymaz 《Geophysical Journal International》1998,134(2):373-389
60.
Marc Elmouttie Bärbel Koribalski Scott Gordon Keith Taylor Sally Houghton Tracy Lavezzi Raymond Haynes & Keith Jones 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1998,297(1):49-68
The TAURUS-2 Fabry–Perot interferometer, mounted on the 3.9-m Anglo-Australian Telescope, has been used to observe the Circinus galaxy. We have mapped the intensity and velocity distribution of the ionized hydrogen in the galaxy using the Balmer series Hα spectral line.
The semiresolved core (observed with a seeing disc of 30 pc) appears amorphous in shape, which is commonly observed in Seyfert 2 galaxies. Its peak coincides with the core position measured in the radio continuum, suggesting that ionized gas surrounds a non-thermal source.
A circumnuclear ring or spiral of radius 220 pc and a rotational velocity of 350 km s−1 (assuming circular motions) surrounds the core. The inclination angle of this feature, i =40°±10°, is less than that of the previously observed radio continuum disc. The velocity channel maps obtained for the Hα ring show that the kinematics resemble those of a rotating ring and the intensity displays a complex structure indicative of several, unresolved, H II regions. We believe the ring to represent a circumnuclear starburst.
Our Hα data also show the presence of the previously detected [O III ] ionization cone to the north-west of the core, measuring more than 400 pc in length. We suggest that the ionization cone lies in a different plane from that of the starburst ring and is directed away from us. Several kinematic components of the core are derived and we calculate an outflow velocity in excess of 150–200 km s−1 for gas above the core of Circinus. We also present evidence for inflowing ionized gas at the centre of Circinus.
The correlation of the Hα and radio continuum features is discussed, as well as the possible presence of a starburst-driven superwind in the Circinus galaxy. 相似文献
The semiresolved core (observed with a seeing disc of 30 pc) appears amorphous in shape, which is commonly observed in Seyfert 2 galaxies. Its peak coincides with the core position measured in the radio continuum, suggesting that ionized gas surrounds a non-thermal source.
A circumnuclear ring or spiral of radius 220 pc and a rotational velocity of 350 km s
Our Hα data also show the presence of the previously detected [O III ] ionization cone to the north-west of the core, measuring more than 400 pc in length. We suggest that the ionization cone lies in a different plane from that of the starburst ring and is directed away from us. Several kinematic components of the core are derived and we calculate an outflow velocity in excess of 150–200 km s
The correlation of the Hα and radio continuum features is discussed, as well as the possible presence of a starburst-driven superwind in the Circinus galaxy. 相似文献