1971-2000年青藏高原气候变化趋势

Trends of annual and monthly temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspi- ration and aridity index were analyzed to understand climate change during the period 1971–2000 over the Tibetan Plateau which is one of the most special regions sensitive to global climate change. FAO56–Penmen–Monteith model was modified to calculate potential evapotranspiration which integrated many climatic elements including maximum and mini- mum temperatures, solar radiation, relative humidity and wind speed. Results indicate gen- erally warming trends of the annual averaged and monthly temperatures, increasing trends of precipitation except in April and September, decreasing trends of annual and monthly poten- tial evapotranspiration, and increasing aridity index except in September. It is not the isolated climatic elements that are important to moisture conditions, but their integrated and simulta- neous effect. Moreover, potential evapotranspiration often changes the effect of precipitation on moisture conditions. The climate trends suggest an important warm and humid tendency averaged over the southern plateau in annual period and in August. Moisture conditions would probably get drier at large area in the headwater region of the three rivers in annual average and months from April to November, and the northeast of the plateau from July to September. Complicated climatic trends over the Tibetan Plateau reveal that climatic factors have nonlinear relationships, and resulte in much uncertainty together with the scarcity of observation data. The results would enhance our understanding of the potential impact of climate change on environment in the Tibetan Plateau. Further research of the sensitivity and attribution of climate change to moisture conditions on the plateau is necessary.     

宽礁膜多糖酸的水解条件

采用0.1 mol/L H2SO4对热水提宽礁膜多糖进行酸水解,研究了水解过程中不同的反应温度和反应时间对宽礁膜多糖分子量的影响。通过控制反应温度和反应时间,得到了分子量在155.0~3.9 kDa间的低分子量宽礁膜多糖。结果表明,反应温度的升高,反应时间的延长都有利于宽礁膜多糖分子量的降低,但温度较时间的影响要明显。     

一种制备单原子碳链的方案

考虑到迄今为止实验上尚不能制备含有上百个原子的自由单原子链,本文提出利用探针从graphene中拉伸较长单原子碳链的设想,并通过分子动力学计算发现,室温下可以利用C60探针以1 m/s的速度从graphene的zigzag边缘拉出较长的一维单原子碳链,为实验提供了一种制备单原子碳链的可能方案.     

枣庄煤炭资源回收利用现状与对策思考

枣庄市素有“鲁南煤城”之称,是因煤而兴的矿业城市,煤炭业在全市经济发展中起着重要的支柱作用。辖区内有陶枣、官桥、滕南、滕北、韩台5个煤田,含煤面积1000余平方千米,占全市土地总面积的23％,现探明储量18．87亿t。滕南、滕北煤田含煤面积较大,资源储量较丰富,主要煤种为气煤、肥煤和天然焦,是优质动力用煤和炼焦配煤。枣庄的煤炭资源自元代末期就开始零星开采,清晚期洋务运动时进入规模开发,距今已有400多年的历史。境内共有各类矿井65对,目前陶枣煤田资源已近枯竭,滕南、滕北煤田已经进入煤炭资源的全面开发期。     

干旱对河西走廊植被净初级生产力的影响

干旱对生态系统碳循环具有重要影响,随着气候变暖,全球干旱事件频率不断上升,研究干旱对植被净初级生产力的影响具有重要意义.提高植被净初级生产力(NPP)的时间分辨率是认识干旱对其影响机制的重要途径.基于5天NDVI遥感数据,以河西走廊为研究区,利用CASA模型估算2010-2015年5天步长尺度的NPP,将5天降水为零定...     

Remote impacts from the tropical Indian Ocean on haze pollution in January over the Yangtze River Delta

近年来,长三角霾事件频发,对人类和生态系统健康造成了严重危害,结果表明:热带印度洋12月海温与长三角1月霾日数呈显著正相关,特别是1999-2017年.12月,海温正异常加热上层空气,1月在对流层上层激发类似MatSuno-Gill模态和一系列Rossby波列,将信号传输至长三角,随后向下游日本海和阿留申群岛传播.长三...     

近60年来白洋淀流域河川径流演变及湿地生态响应

白洋淀是雄安新区的核心生态功能区,近几十年来面临水源不足、湿地萎缩等生态环境问题.选取白洋淀流域上游王快、西大洋及拒马河3个子流域开展河川径流演变研究,结合1969年以来18期白洋淀湿地遥感影像,揭示白洋淀流域河川径流驱动湿地演变的过程机制.结果表明：近60年来白洋淀流域山区径流量呈持续衰减趋势,从P1阶段(1961—1979年)至P3阶段(1997—2019年),典型子流域年径流系数均值由0.29降至0.12,山区年径流总量由30.84×10⁸m³/a降至11.37×10⁸m³/a,降幅达63.1%,梯田修建、地下水开采等人类活动是导致径流衰减的主要原因;不同子流域产流和基流减少对径流衰减的贡献率存在差异,以变质岩为主的王快子流域径流衰减的主要原因是地表产流减少,碳酸盐岩分布较广的拒马河子流域径流衰减的主要原因是基流减少;白洋淀湿地面积变化受控于地表水位波动,近60年来白洋淀湿地退化的直接原因是入淀流量减少,根本原因是人类活动影响导致的山区径流衰减.     

Intelligent modelling of clay compressibility using hybrid meta-heuristic and machine learning algorithms

Compression index Ccis an essential parameter in geotechnical design for which the effectiveness of correlation is still a challenge.This paper suggests a novel modelling approach using machine learning(ML)technique.The performance of five commonly used machine learning(ML)algorithms,i.e.back-propagation neural network(BPNN),extreme learning machine(ELM),support vector machine(SVM),random forest(RF)and evolutionary polynomial regression(EPR)in predicting Cc is comprehensively investigated.A database with a total number of 311 datasets including three input variables,i.e.initial void ratio e0,liquid limit water content wL,plasticity index Ip,and one output variable Cc is first established.Genetic algorithm(GA)is used to optimize the hyper-parameters in five ML algorithms,and the average prediction error for the 10-fold cross-validation(CV)sets is set as thefitness function in the GA for enhancing the robustness of ML models.The results indicate that ML models outperform empirical prediction formulations with lower prediction error.RF yields the lowest error followed by BPNN,ELM,EPR and SVM.If the ranges of input variables in the database are large enough,BPNN and RF models are recommended to predict Cc.Furthermore,if the distribution of input variables is continuous,RF model is the best one.Otherwise,EPR model is recommended if the ranges of input variables are small.The predicted correlations between input and output variables using five ML models show great agreement with the physical explanation.     

有限区域海面风场数值模式的建立

目前,国内外大尺度天气预报数值模式已经取得很大成就,如在预报地面气旋系统的移动和发展等方面。然而,这些模式的铅直分辨率一般不高,通常不包括边界层的动力过程,因而,在预报海面风场上,数值天气预报模式还没有令人满意的效果。目前所用的边界层预报模式尽管具有较高的水平分辨率和垂直分辨率,但要求大量的计算和资料,很难用于日常业务预报;另一种边界层诊断模式,用到的风场数据是气象工作者从天气形势(大尺度)分析中,通过差值等方法获得的,缺乏针对性,而且精度较低(WMO,1988;WMO,1990)。 作者认为,适于海洋要素预报的风场模式应是定位于有限区域,或称中尺度模式,并根据台站的具体资料来源和工作状况力争建立一套适于海洋要素预报的中尺度风场数值模式。鉴于以上,作者建立了一个适于海洋要素预报的有限区域海面风场数值模式。模式采用符合动力及热力学条件的简化方程组对大尺度风场进行加密,通过数值模拟得到适于海洋要素预报的有限区域海面风场。并将该模式运用于渤海这一有限区域,获得了良好的效果,说明该模式对海洋要素预报具有很好的应用前景。     

基于极限分析上限方法的海底斜坡稳定性评价

极限平衡法仍是当前海底斜坡稳定性的主要工程评价方法,但该法只能给出稳定性分析的近似解答。基于极限分析运动学定理,假定海底斜坡发生对数螺线型滑移破坏模式,将滑体有效自重和简化波浪力等以外荷载形式叠加引入到虚功率方程中,与潜在滑动面上由黏聚力产生的内能耗散率相平衡,建立考虑一阶简化波浪效应的海底斜坡上限解法;利用多变量无导数求极值的逐级迭代方法与最优化技术,结合抗剪强度折减思想,求解波浪加载下不同时刻的海底斜坡稳定性与相应的临界破坏机构,并针对典型算例开展有限元数值解的验证。进而联合采用数值法与上限解,探讨波高、波长、水深等波浪参数对海底斜坡稳定性与滑动机制的影响。结果表明,本文提出的上限解与数值解吻合较好,获得的安全系数与破坏模式等符合一般规律,为波浪作用下海底斜坡的稳定性评价提供了新的途径。