玛纳斯县城高危震害小区的综合判定

在以玛纳斯县城各居委会小区为单元进行震害预测的基础上,分析了人员伤亡数量,社会财富和无家可归人数三项指标在评判高危震害小区中占有的地位。建立了高危震害小区判定指标公式。指出了玛纳斯县城内的第４,第９居委会小区为高危震害小区。把对高危震害小区的判定从单一定性化推向综合定量化做了一次尝试。     

地史重大转折期的环境变化学术讨论会综述

概述了地史重大转折期的环境变化学术讨论会４个方面的主要科学内容：古生代与中生代之交的全球环境变化,泥贫纪弗拉期与法门期之交的全球环境变化,元古宙与显生宙之交扔全球环境变化和地史重大转折期环境变化的研究方法。围绕上述内容,评述了发言人和专题发言人的主要科学资料和科学思想以及本次会议形成的共识。     

The evolution characteristics of positive and negative earthquakes before strong quakes in Kanto area and the Hyugo earthquake in Japan

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通过类比法确定磷矿选矿指标可行性之探讨——以江苏陶湾磷矿为例

陶湾磷矿是近年来在锦屏、新浦磷矿附近新发现并勘探的中型矿床,其可选性指标通过与相邻老矿山类比确定。近期浅部坑采试选表明,勘探期间所定陶湾磷矿选矿指标是合理、可行的。     

拉尔玛金矿的生物成矿作用

位于甘、川两省交界处的拉尔玛金矿床,赋存于下寒武统太阳顶群,矿区内岩浆活动不强烈,矿床中断裂构造较发育,矿石矿物种类较齐全。矿石中的生物有机地球化学特征表明其为细菌和低等藻类生物体衍生的生物标志物和遗传特征,证明了太阳顶群中的有机质起源于菌藻类生物。矿石中的金属矿物生物组构有生物有机胶体组构和矿交代生物组构,说明生物成矿作用经历了直接成矿和间接成矿,即两轮聚矿作用,菌藻生物的第一轮聚金主要形成矿源层,生物的两轮聚金结果,形成此矿床。     

临震电磁波信息研究

临震电磁波辐射与电磁扰动的现象,早在1966年邢台地震时就引起了人们的注意。1975年海城地震和1976年唐山大震后,一些单位从不同的方面开展了观测研究工作。我省一些中强震震前也曾出现过不同表现形式的电磁波辐射与电磁扰动现象。如1970年10月29日金湖4.2级地震前约2小时,震中区一鱼场工人发现收音机受到强烈干扰,震后即恢复正常;1974     

板块构造说的发生与发展

中国是世界文明发达最早的国家之一,中国已有了将近四千年的有文字可考的历史。上古和中古时代我国常常出现光辉的地质思想的萌芽。近古以来,宋明理学盛行,儒家定于一尊,早期出现的可贵苗头,得不到应有的发展。不但地球知识毫无进展,整个自然科学也一蹶不振,长期以来,处于混沌状态。相反,西方在古代漫长黑夜之后,到了十六世纪,所谓“宗教改革”特别是影响深远的“文艺复兴”,为学术的大步前进开辟了道路。     

珠穆朗玛峰北坡冈瓦纳相地层的发现

于1975年我国再次登上珠穆朗玛峰的科学考察活动中,在地质方面获得了地层、古生物、岩石、构造等方面比较珍贵的资料。珠峰科考资料研究的新成果是在反击右倾翻案风斗争取得伟大胜利的大好形势推动下取得的。本刊将发表《珠穆朗玛峰北坡冈瓦纳相地层的发现》等相互联系的一组文章,从地层、沉积、古生物的角度,以较丰富的资料证实了珠峰北坡冈瓦纳相地层的存在,这对于探讨珠穆朗玛峰及喜马拉雅山的隆起和地质发展史具有重要价值。     

The role of anthropogenic activities in karst spring discharge volatility

The traditional hydrological time series methods tend to focus on the mean of whichever variable is analysed but neglect its time‐varying variance (i.e. assuming the variance remains constant). The variances of hydrological time series vary with time under anthropogenic influence. There is evidence that extensive well drilling and groundwater pumping can intercept groundwater run‐off and consequently induce spring discharge volatility or variance varying with time (i.e. heteroskedasticity). To investigate the time‐varying variance or heteroskedasticity of spring discharge, this paper presents a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with general autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (SARIMA‐GARCH) model, whose the SARIMA model is used to estimate the mean of hydrological time series, and the GARCH model estimates its time‐varying variance. The SARIMA‐GARCH model was then applied to the Xin'an Springs Basin, China, where extensive groundwater development has occurred since 1978 (e.g. the average annual groundwater pumping rates were less than 0.20 m³/s in the 1970s, reached 1.20 m³/s at the end of the 1980s, surpassed 2.0 m³/s in the 1990s and exceeded 3.0 m³/s by 2007). To identify whether human activities or natural stressors caused the heteroskedasticity of Xin'an Springs discharge, we segmented the spring discharge sequence into two periods: a predevelopment stage (i.e. 1956–1977) and a developed stage (i.e. 1978–2012), and set up the SARIMA‐GARCH model for the two stages, respectively. By comparing the models, we detected the role of human activities in spring discharge volatility. The results showed that human activities caused the heteroskedasticity of the Xin'an Spring discharge. The predicted Xin'an Springs discharge by the SARIMA‐GARCH model showed that the mean monthly spring discharge is predicted to continue to decline to 0.93 m³/s in 2013, 0.67 m³/s in 2014 and 0.73 m³/s in 2015. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Identifying parameters controlling soil delayed behaviour from laboratory and in situ pressuremeter testing

The aim of this paper is to present a methodology for identifying the soil parameters controlling the delayed behaviour from laboratory and in situ pressuremeter tests by using an elasto‐viscoplastic model (EVP‐MCC) based on Perzyna's overstress theory and on the elasto‐plastic Modified Cam Clay model. The influence of both the model parameters and the soil permeability was studied under the loading condition of pressuremeter tests by coupling the proposed model equations with Biot's consolidation theory. On the basis of the parametric study, a methodology for identifying model parameters and soil permeability by inverse analysis from three levels of constant strain rate pressuremeter tests was then proposed and applied on tests performed on natural Saint‐Herblain clay. The methodology was validated by comparing the optimized values of soil parameters and the values of the same parameters obtained from laboratory test results, and also by using the identified parameters to simulate other tests on the same samples. The analysis of the drainage condition and the strain rate effect during a pressuremeter test demonstrated the coupled influence of consolidation and viscous effects on the test results. The numerical results also showed that the inverse analysis procedure could successfully determine the parameters controlling the time‐dependent soil behaviour. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.