Estimation of urban heat island intensity using biases in surface air temperature simulated by a nonhydrostatic regional climate model

This study demonstrates that urban heat island (UHI) intensity can be estimated by comparing observational data and the outputs of a well-developed high-resolution regional climate model. Such an estimate is possible because the observations include the effects of UHI, whereas the model used does not include urban effects. Therefore, the errors in the simulated surface air temperature, defined as the difference between simulated and observed temperatures (simulated minus observed), are negative in urban areas but 0 in rural areas. UHI intensity is estimated by calculating the difference in temperature error between urban and rural areas. Our results indicate that overall UHI intensity in Japan is 1.5 K and that the intensity is greater in nighttime than in daytime, consistent with the previous studies. This study also shows that root mean square error and the magnitude of systematic error for the annual mean temperature are small (within 1.0 K).     

Non-transparent uppermost mantle in the island-arc region of Japan

In Japan, the crust and uppermost mantle seismic character is yet unimaged although many refraction surveys have been recorded. The longest seismic profiles are analyzed. A remarkable feature, a long-duration coda wave after the PmP wave (reflected wave at the Moho boundary), is observed on the record sections. Several possible models are considered to explain the long-duration coda wave. The model with many scatterers located in the uppermost mantle explains the observed data well while the undulating Moho and continuous layering models do not account for some aspects of the observed data. The scatterer distributed uppermost mantle is not consistent with that of continental region which is often characterized as transparent. We estimate the scattering coefficient of the uppermost mantle and crust using simulations. The scattering coefficients obtained for upper crust, lower crust, and uppermost mantle are 0.01, 0.02, and 0.025, respectively. The scattering coefficient of the uppermost mantle is slightly larger than that of lower crust, which is characterized as being reflective. The many scatterers in the uppermost mantle might be related to magmatism in Japan. This will be one of the important observations for understanding formation processes of the Moho boundary and uppermost mantle in the island-arc environment.     

An Alternative Measure of the Reliability of Ordinary Kriging Estimates

This paper presents an interpolation variance as an alternative to the measure of the reliability of ordinary kriging estimates. Contrary to the traditional kriging variance, the interpolation variance is data-values dependent, variogram dependent, and a measure of local accuracy. Natural phenomena are not homogeneous; therefore, local variability as expressed through data values must be recognized for a correct assessment of uncertainty. The interpolation variance is simply the weighted average of the squared differences between data values and the retained estimate. Ordinary kriging or simple kriging variances are the expected values of interpolation variances; therefore, these traditional homoscedastic estimation variances cannot properly measure local data dispersion. More precisely, the interpolation variance is an estimate of the local conditional variance, when the ordinary kriging weights are interpreted as conditional probabilities associated to the n neighboring data. This interpretation is valid if, and only if, all ordinary kriging weights are positive or constrained to be such. Extensive tests illustrate that the interpolation variance is a useful alternative to the traditional kriging variance.