Climate and economic competitiveness: Florida freezes and the global citrus processing industry

Summary Casual observers of the impacts associated with four recent freezes in Florida's citrus producing areas might be inclined to agree with an assessment by Miami Herald reporters that these freezes had caused the king of citrus to be toppled from its throne, enabling Brazil to take its place. Research on the citrus industry, however, reveals that the impacts of these recent freezes only explain part of the story of the interaction between climate variability and the relationship between the citrus industries of Florida and Brazil. Climate characteristics and their variability have directly as well as indirectly affected the economic competitiveness of citrus producers whose output is in large measure climate-dependent. Climate variability has had direct impacts on Florida's citrus industry by adversely affecting the productivity of citrus groves in some areas, by altering growers' perceptions of freeze probabilities and, occasionally, by suddenly reducing output, thus elevating the price that consumers must pay for that commodity. Indirectly, competition can be affected by climate as a potential producer identifies a weakness in the supply system of an existing industry and seeks to fill the gap.Brazil's involvement in the toppling of King Citrus began not in the early 1980s (as a result of the four freezes in the past six years), but in 1962 as a result of a major freeze in that year, one that sharply increased FCOJ prices by reducing Florida's output. It was then that the climate had an impact on the economic competitiveness of the citrus industry. The records document the steady, almost meteoric, rise in Brazilian FCOJ production and exports. Subsequent freezes only served to abet a process that had been well underway two decades before the recent devastating freezes.As for Florida's ability to continue and perhaps expand its key role in the global citrus economy, the recent freezes do not appear to have fatally damaged that. Rather, those freezes have reawakened Florida's citrus producers to the fact that they are involved in a climate-sensitive industry and have reminded them that the potential for freeze-related problems is never far away. That reawakening has sparked interest in developing hardier citrus varieties, more effective freeze protection methods, and better ways to hedge economically against freeze impacts to the industry.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

Assessment of drought over the past two millennia using near-shore sediment cores from a Canadian boreal lake

Lack of long-term studies on drought in the boreal region of northwest Ontario limits our ability to assess the vulnerability of this region to climate change. We investigated changes in diatoms, scaled chrysophytes, and sedimentary pigments in two near-shore cores from Gall Lake to infer limnological and water-level changes over the last two millennia. The two coring locations, at modern water depths of 7.5 and 11.5 m, were selected to contrast inferences for past lake level based on distance from the modern water-depth boundary between predominantly benthic and planktonic diatom assemblages in surface sediments (6.0 m). Diatom-inferred depth inferences were more variable in the core from 7.5-m water depth, consistent with the hypothesis that the greatest changes occurred at water depths closest to the benthic:planktonic boundary. Both sites revealed a pronounced drought from ~AD 950 to 1300, synchronous with the medieval climate anomaly (MCA). This finding suggests a northeast expansion of the arid MCA into northwest Ontario, extending the known spatial extent of this megadrought. Scaled chrysophytes and sedimentary pigments suggest a recent increase in thermal stratification. Our findings indicate this region is more susceptible to changes in moisture than was previously suspected based on the instrumental record for the past century.     

Downscaling reveals diverse effects of anthropogenic climate warming on the potential for local environments to support malaria transmission

The potential impact of climate warming on patterns of malaria transmission has been the subject of keen scientific and policy debate. Standard climate models (GCMs) characterize climate change at relatively coarse spatial and temporal scales. However, malaria parasites and the mosquito vectors respond to diurnal variations in conditions at very local scales. Here we bridge this gap by downscaling a series of GCMs to provide high-resolution temperature data for four different sites and show that although outputs from both the GCM and the downscaled models predict diverse but qualitatively similar effects of warming on the potential for adult mosquitoes to transmit malaria, the predicted magnitude of change differs markedly between the different model approaches. Raw GCM model outputs underestimate the effects of climate warming at both hot (3-fold) and cold (8–12 fold) extremes, and overestimate (3-fold) the change under intermediate conditions. Thus, downscaling could add important insights to the standard application of coarse-scale GCMs for biophysical processes driven strongly by local microclimatic conditions.     

Retrospective and prospective model simulations of sea level rise impacts on Gulf of Mexico coastal marshes and forests in Waccasassa Bay, Florida

The State of Florida (USA) is especially threatened by sea level rise due to extensive low elevation coastal habitats (approximately 8,000?km²?<?1?m above sea level) where the majority of the human population resides. We used the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) simulation to improve understanding of the magnitude and location of these changes for 58,000?ha of the Waccasassa Bay region of Florida??s central Gulf of Mexico coast. To assess how well SLAMM portrays changes in coastal wetland systems resulting from sea level rise, we conducted a hindcast in which we compared model results to 30?years of field plot data. Overall, the model showed the same pattern of coastal forest loss as observed. Prospective runs of SLAMM using 0.64?m, 1?m and 2?m sea level rise scenarios predict substantial changes over this century in the area covered by coastal wetland systems including net losses of coastal forests (69%, 83%, and 99%, respectively) and inland forests (33%, 50%, and 88%), but net gains of tidal flats (17%, 142%, and 3,837%). One implication of these findings at the site level is that undeveloped, unprotected lands inland from the coastal forest should be protected to accommodate upslope migration of this natural community in response to rising seas. At a broader scale, our results suggest that coastal wetland systems will be unevenly affected across the Gulf of Mexico as sea level rises. Species vulnerable to these anticipated changes will experience a net loss or even elimination.     

Temporal Zooming

Spatio-temporal knowledge representation often requires changing from one level of detail or granularity to another so users can carry out a desired task. Meteorological occurrences, geological processes, or population movements, for example, can be examined at different granularities. This includes different spatial perspectives as well as temporal views where phenomena may be examined under real time conditions, or over hourly, daily, weekly, or longer periods. Moving back and forth among granularities is a necessary routine for many domain scientists. Changing to a more detailed view uncovers information that otherwise is unknown. Conversely, moving to a simpler view can improve our understanding of phenomena. Although people routinely abstract information from their environment at different granularities and perform mental shifts that increase or decrease detail, formalization of these alterations for use in information systems has proved difficult. Geographic information systems typically treat changes in granularity from the perspective of changes to the geometric properties of objects through graphic zooming. None of the current approaches to zooming offer support for performing this operation over time. This work focuses on the temporal aspects of changing granularity or temporal zooming . The approach is based on a model of change to identifiable objects. In this paper, temporal zooming involves expanding or collapsing the transitions among identity states of the same object as well as revealing or omitting other objects that are linked through transitions. A set of operations to support refining and coarsening the evolution of objects over time is presented. This work offers a new perspective on zooming important for spatio-temporal query languages and for users of large spatio-temporal databases who require the means to shift back and forth among simpler or summarized views of data and more detailed views.     

Modeling Alternative Sequences of Events in Dynamic Geographic Domains

A model that emphasizes possible alternative sequences of events that occur over time is presented in this article. Representing alternative or branching events captures additional semantics unrealized by linear or non‐branching approaches. Two basic elements of branching, divergence and convergence are discussed. From these elements, many complex branching models can be built capturing a perspective of events that will take place in the future or have occurred in the past. This produces likely sequences of events that a user may compare and analyze using spatial or temporal criteria. The branching events model is especially useful for spatiotemporal decision support systems, as decision‐makers are able to identify alternative locations and times of events and, depending on the context, also identify regions of multiple possible events. A branching events viewer application is presented illustrating a case study based on a tornado response.     

High-frequency monitoring of hydrological and biogeochemical fluxes in forested catchments of southern Chile

The variability of rainfall-dependent streamflow at catchment scale modulates many ecosystem processes in wet temperate forests. Runoff in small mountain catchments is characterized by a quick response to rainfall pulses which affects biogeochemical fluxes to all downstream systems. In wet-temperate climates, water erosion is the most important natural factor driving downstream soil and nutrient losses from upland ecosystems. Most hydrochemical studies have focused on water flux measurements at hourly scales, along with weekly or monthly samples for water chemistry. Here, we assessed how water and element flows from broad-leaved, evergreen forested catchments in southwestern South America, are influenced by different successional stages, quantifying runoff, sediment transport and nutrient fluxes during hourly rainfall events of different intensities. Hydrograph comparisons among different successional stages indicated that forested catchments differed in their responses to high intensity rainfall, with greater runoff in areas covered by secondary forests (SF), compared to old-growth forest cover (OG) and dense scrub vegetation (CH). Further, throughfall water was greatly nutrient enriched for all forest types. Suspended sediment loads varied between successional stages. SF catchments exported 455 kg of sediments per ha, followed by OG with 91 kg/ha and CH with 14 kg/ha, corresponding to 11 rainfall events measured from December 2013 to April 2014. Total nitrogen (TN) and phosphorus (TP) concentrations in stream water also varied with rainfall intensity. In seven rainfall events sampled during the study period, CH catchments exported less nutrients (46 kg/ha TN and 7 kg/ha TP) than SF catchments (718 kg/ha TN and 107 kg/ha TP), while OG catchments exported intermediate sediment loads (201 kg/ha TN and 23 kg/ha TP). Further, we found significant effects of successional stage attributes (vegetation structure and soil physical properties) and catchment morphometry on runoff and sediment concentrations, and greater nutrients retention in OG and CH catchments. We conclude that in these southern hemisphere, broad-leaved evergreen temperate forests, hydrological processes are driven by multiple interacting phenomena, including climate, vegetation, soils, topography, and disturbance history.     

Long-term erosion on granitic roadcuts based on exposed tree roots

Exposed roots were used to estimate soil and bedrock erosion on the cut slopes of a 45-year-old road constructed in granitic soils of the Idaho Batholith. The original roadcut surface was defined by projecting a straight line from the toe of the cut past the end of the exposed root to the intersection of a straight line projected along the surface of the hillslope. A cross-sectioning technique was then used to determine erosion to the present roadcut surface. A total of 41 exposed root sites were used to estimate erosion on a 1350 m-long section of road. Average erosion was 1·0 and 1·1 cm/year for soil and bedrock respectively. Buttressing by tree roots caused lower erosion rates for soil as compared to bedrock. Both soil and bedrock erosion rates showed statistically significant correlations with the gradients of the original cut slope. The bedrock erosion data provide a reasonable estimate of the disintegration rate of exposed granitic bedrock exhibiting the weathering and fracturing properties common to this area. The road is located in a study watershed where long-term sediment yield data are available. Sediment data from adjacent study watersheds with no roads were compared to sediment data from the roaded watershed to estimate the long-term increase in sediment yield caused by the road. The increase amounts to about 2·4 m³/year. This figure, compared to the average annual on-site road erosion, provides an erosion to sediment delivery ratio of less than 10 per cent. Based on study results, road construction and maintenance practices are suggested for helping reduce roadcut erosion.     

Sources of variability in springwater chemistry in Fool Creek,a high-elevation catchment of the Rocky Mountains,Colorado, USA

Springs are the point of origin for most headwater streams and are important regulators of their chemical composition. We analysed solute concentrations of water emerging from 57 springs within the 3 km² Fool Creek catchment at the Fraser Experimental Forest and considered sources of spatial variation among them and their influence on the chemical composition of downstream water. On average, calcium and acid neutralizing capacity (bicarbonate-ANC) comprised 50 and 90% of the cation and anion charge respectively, in both spring and stream water. Variation in inorganic chemical composition among springs reflected distinct groundwater sources and catchment geology. Springs emerging through glacial deposits in the upper portion of the catchment were the most dilute and similar to snowmelt, whereas lower elevation springs were more concentrated in cations and ANC. Water emerging from a handful of springs in a geologically faulted portion of the catchment were more concentrated than all others and had a predominant effect on downstream ion concentrations. Chemical similarity indicated that these springs were linked along surface and subsurface flowpaths. This survey shows that springwater chemistry is influenced at nested spatial scales including broad geologic conditions, elevational and spatial attributes and isolated local features. Our results highlight the role of overlapping factors on solute export from headwater catchments.