Implications of weak near-term climate policies on long-term mitigation pathways

While the international community has agreed on the long-term target of limiting global warming to no more than 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, only a few concrete climate policies and measures to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been implemented. We use a set of three global integrated assessment models to analyze the implications of current climate policies on long-term mitigation targets. We define a weak-policy baseline scenario, which extrapolates the current policy environment by assuming that the global climate regime remains fragmented and that emission reduction efforts remain unambitious in most of the world’s regions. These scenarios clearly fall short of limiting warming to 2 °C. We investigate the cost and achievability of the stabilization of atmospheric GHG concentrations at 450 ppm CO₂e by 2100, if countries follow the weak policy pathway until 2020 or 2030 before pursuing the long-term mitigation target with global cooperative action. We find that after a deferral of ambitious action the 450 ppm CO₂e is only achievable with a radical up-scaling of efforts after target adoption. This has severe effects on transformation pathways and exacerbates the challenges of climate stabilization, in particular for a delay of cooperative action until 2030. Specifically, reaching the target with weak near-term action implies (a) faster and more aggressive transformations of energy systems in the medium term, (b) more stranded investments in fossil-based capacities, (c) higher long-term mitigation costs and carbon prices and (d) stronger transitional economic impacts, rendering the political feasibility of such pathways questionable.     

R-mode factor analysis applied to uranium exploration in the Montrose quadrangle, Colorado

R-mode factor analysis is used to describe the relationships among 18 remotely sensed and geochemical data sets (variables) for the Montrose 1° × 2° quadrangle, Colorado, a region that covers 19 000 km². The data sets contain reconnaissance-scale information and include Landsat imagery, airborne geophysical information (eU, eTh, K40, aeromagnetics), elevation, and hydrogeochemical and stream sediment analyses. The elements U, K, Dy, Hf, V, Th, Ca and Ba in sediments and U in waters were selected.The results of the factor analysis for the entire quadrangle are compared to the results for a 50 km × 50 km test area containing several known uranium occurrences. Four factors account for 70.0% of the total variance in the data. These are interpreted as a felsic factor, Landsat factor, economic or mineralization factor (in terms of uranium mineralization and potential mineralized areas), and a volcanic factor.Graphical representations (maps) of the raw data, factor approximations, residuals for each data set, and the four-factor model greatly aid interpretation of the analytic results. We find that data integration techniques and R-mode factor analysis can be used with some success in uranium resource appraisal.     

Field Methods for Measurement of Ground Water Redox Chemical Parameters

An inexpensive, versatile, and portable system is presented, which facilitates rapid field determinations of redox potentials, pH, conductivity, ferrous and total iron, nitrite, specific conductance, dissolved oxygen, and temperature. Accuracy is facilitated by on-site measurements of most parameters using specially constructed flow-through cells and, for several analyses, sealed reagent ampoules, which can be broken and developed inside a flowing stream of ground water. Coupled with laboratory analyses of more stable ground water parameters, this system can provide accurate and relatively inexpensive determinations of redox conditions in ground water.     

The role of equatorial waves in the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon and the demise of El Niño during 1998

The observed sequence of events leading to the onset of the summer monsoon in the South China Sea (SCS) is described, with a particular focus on conditions during the South China Sea monsoon experiment (SCSMEX) in May–June 1998. During SCSMEX, SCS monsoon onset occurred within the context of a multitude of scale interactions within the ocean-atmosphere system on intraseasonal time scales. Results from the 1998 SCSMEX case study illustrate that SCS monsoon onset is preceded by the development of an eastward-propagating Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the Indian Ocean, as suggested by previous authors, and the subsequent emanation of a convectively coupled Kelvin wave into the Pacific. Remarkably similar results are obtained in an independent composite of 25 years of data. Since both the MJO and Kelvin waves generate westerly surface winds in their wake, it is suggested that these waves may accelerate or trigger the monsoon onset process in the southern SCS. A detailed analysis of the Kelvin wave that propagated through the SCS during SCSMEX shows that it was responsible for a large portion of the surface wind shift leading to monsoon onset in 1998. Finally, easterly wind anomalies in the eastern Pacific associated with the Indian Ocean MJO event during the SCSMEX period are shown to result in the sudden demise of the 1997–1998 El Niño event.     

Radar rainfall estimation for flash flood forecasting in small urban watersheds

Radar rainfall estimation for flash flood forecasting in small, urban catchments is examined through analyses of radar, rain gage and discharge observations from the 14.3 km² Dead Run drainage basin in Baltimore County, Maryland. The flash flood forecasting problem pushes the envelope of rainfall estimation to time and space scales that are commensurate with the scales at which the fundamental governing laws of land surface processes are derived. Analyses of radar rainfall estimates are based on volume scan WSR-88D reflectivity observations for 36 storms during the period 2003–2005. Gage-radar analyses show large spatial variability of storm total rainfall over the 14.3 km² basin for flash flood producing storms. The ability to capture the detailed spatial variation of rainfall for flash flood producing storms by WSR-88D rainfall estimates varies markedly from event to event. As spatial scale decreases from the 14.3 km² scale of the Dead Run watershed to 1 km² (and the characteristic time scale of flash flood producing rainfall decreases from 1 h to 15 min) the predictability of flash flood response from WSR-88D rainfall estimates decreases sharply. Storm to storm variability of multiplicative bias in storm total rainfall estimates is a dominant element of the error structure of radar rainfall estimates, and it varies systematically over the warm season and with flood magnitude. Analyses of the 7 July 2004 and 28 June 2005 storms illustrate microphysical and dynamical controls on radar estimation error for extreme flash flood producing storms.     

Laboratory Kinetic Studies of the Reactions of Cl Atoms with Species of Biogenic Origin: δ3-Carene, Isoprene, Methacrolein and Methyl Vinyl Ketone

The rate coefficients for the reaction between atomic chlorine and a number of naturally occurring species have been measured at ambient temperature and atmospheric pressure using the relative rate technique. The values obtained were (4.0 ± 0.8) × 10^-10, (2.1 ± 0.5) × 10^-10, (3.2 ± 0.5) × 10^-10, and (4.9 ± 0.5) × 10^-10 cm³ molecule^-1 s^-1, for reactions with isoprene, methyl vinyl ketone, methacrolein and ³-carene, respectively. The value obtained for isoprene compares favourably with previously reported values. No values have been reported to date for the rate constants of the other reactions.     

Using species distribution modelling to predict future distributions of phytoplankton: Case study using species important for the biological pump

Some phytoplankton species have been predicted to contribute more to the biological pump than others. In this study, we examine the potential of species distribution modelling (SDM) for describing current and predicting future global distributions of two phytoplankton species: the diatom Chaetoceros diadema and the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi. Species distribution models (SDMs) were constructed using species data from the Ocean Biogeographic Information System and environmental layers from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The resulting distributions were evaluated by comparing predicted distributions with those found via a literature survey. The developed SDMs were then applied to predict future changes in the distributions of these species using environmental conditions based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Representative Concentration Pathways scenario 8.5 climate scenario, predicted for the year 2100. The model predicts that the total ocean area covered by C. diadema and E. huxleyi will decline under the examined climate scenario by 8% and 16%, respectively. Furthermore, the future ranges above depths >1,000 m are predicted to decline by 28% for C. diadema. As the biological pump is most active in deep ocean waters, this projected decrease in range in the deeper regions of the ocean may have implications for carbon sequestration, particularly for the diatom species. We conclude that SDM appears to be a robust tool for examining phytoplankton distributions. If the predicted changes in ranges of these two species under future ocean conditions are realised, this may result in a reduced contribution of these two phytoplankton species to carbon sequestration via the biological pump.     

The Interaction of Natural Organic Matter with Iron in a Wetland (Tennessee Park, Colorado) Receiving Acid Mine Drainage

Pore water from a wetland receiving acid mine drainage was studied for its iron and natural organic matter (NOM) geochemistry on three different sampling dates during summer 1994. Samples were obtained using a new sampling technique that is based on screened pipes of varying length (several centimeters), into which dialysis vessels can be placed and that can be screwed together to allow for vertical pore-water sampling. The iron concentration increased with time (through the summer) and had distinct peaks in the subsurface. Iron was mainly in the ferrous form; however, close to the surface, significant amounts of ferric iron (up to 40% of 2 mmol L-1 total iron concentration) were observed. In all samples studied, iron was strongly associated with NOM. Results from laboratory experiments indicate that the NOM stabilizes the ferric iron as small iron oxide colloids (able to pass a 0.45μm dialysis membrane). We hypothesize that, in the pore water of the wetland, the high NOM concentrations (>100 mg C L-1) allow formation of such colloids at the redoxcline close to the surface and at the contact zone to the adjacent oxic aquifer. Therefore, particle transport along flow paths and resultant export of ferric iron from the wetland into ground water might be possible. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.