Response of surface water chemistry to reduced levels of acid precipitation: comparison of trends in two regions of New York,USA

In light of recent reductions in sulphur (S) and nitrogen (N) emissions mandated by Title IV of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, temporal trends and trend coherence in precipitation (1984–2001 and 1992–2001) and surface water chemistry (1992–2001) were determined in two of the most acid‐sensitive regions of North America, i.e. the Catskill and Adirondack Mountains of New York. Precipitation chemistry data from six sites located near these regions showed decreasing sulphate (SO₄^2?), nitrate (NO₃^?), and base cation (C_B) concentrations and increasing pH during 1984–2001, but few significant trends during 1992–2001. Data from five Catskill streams and 12 Adirondack lakes showed decreasing trends in SO₄^2? concentrations at all sites, and decreasing trends in NO₃^?, C_B, and H⁺ concentrations and increasing trends in dissolved organic carbon at most sites. In contrast, acid‐neutralizing capacity (ANC) increased significantly at only about half the Adirondack lakes and in one of the Catskill streams. Flow correction prior to trend analysis did not change any trend directions and had little effect on SO₄^2? trends, but it caused several significant non‐flow‐corrected trends in NO₃^? and ANC to become non‐significant, suggesting that trend results for flow‐sensitive constituents are affected by flow‐related climate variation. SO₄^2? concentrations showed high temporal coherence in precipitation, surface waters, and in precipitation–surface water comparisons, reflecting a strong link between S emissions, precipitation SO₄^2? concentrations, and the processes that affect S cycling within these regions. NO₃^? and H⁺ concentrations and ANC generally showed weak coherence, especially in surface waters and in precipitation–surface water comparisons, indicating that variation in local‐scale processes driven by factors such as climate are affecting trends in acid–base chemistry in these two regions. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Climate change and future flows of Rocky Mountain rivers: converging forecasts from empirical trend projection and down‐scaled global circulation modelling

To predict future river flows, empirical trend projection (ETP) analyses and extends historic trends, while hydroclimatic modelling (HCM) incorporates regional downscaling from global circulation model (GCM) outputs. We applied both approaches to the extensively allocated Oldman River Basin that drains the North American Rocky Mountains and provides an international focus for water sharing. For ETP, we analysed monthly discharges from 1912 to 2008 with non‐parametric regression, and extrapolated changes to 2055. For modelling, we refined the physical models MTCLIM and SNOPAC to provide water inputs into RIVRQ (river discharge), a model that assesses the streamflow regime as involving dynamic peaks superimposed on stable baseflow. After parameterization with 1960–1989 data, we assessed climate forecasts from six GCMs: CGCM1‐A, HadCM3, NCAR‐CCM3, ECHAM4 and 5 and GCM2. Modelling reasonably reconstructed monthly hydrographs (R² about 0·7), and averaging over three decades closely reconstructed the monthly pattern (R² = 0·94). When applied to the GCM forecasts, the model predicted that summer flows would decline considerably, while winter and early spring flows would increase, producing a slight decline in the annual discharge (?3%, 2005–2055). The ETP predicted similarly decreased summer flows but slight change in winter flows and greater annual flow reduction (?9%). The partial convergence of the seasonal flow projections increases confidence in a composite analysis and we thus predict further declines in summer (about ? 15%) and annual flows (about ? 5%). This composite projection indicates a more modest change than had been anticipated based on earlier GCM analyses or trend projections that considered only three or four decades. For other river basins, we recommend the utilization of ETP based on the longest available streamflow records, and HCM with multiple GCMs. The degree of correspondence from these two independent approaches would provide a basis for assessing the confidence in projections for future river flows and surface water supplies. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Do people “personally experience” global warming,and if so how,and does it matter?

For most people, the direct and personally observable signals of climate change should be difficult to detect amid the variability of everyday weather. Yet, previous research has shown that some people believe they have personally experienced global warming. Through four related studies, our paper sheds light on what signals of global warming some people believe they are detecting, why, and whether or not it matters. These studies were conducted using population survey and climatic data from a single county in Michigan. Study 1 found that 27% of the county's adult residents felt that they had personally experienced global warming. Study 2 – based on content analysis of people's open-ended responses – found that the most frequently described personal experiences of global warming were changes in seasons (36%), weather (25%), lake levels (24%), animals and plants (20%), and snowfall (19%). Study 3 – based on NOAA climatic data – found that most, but not all, of these detected signals are borne out in the climatic record. Study 4 – using the survey data – found that personal experience of global warming matters in that it predicts perceptions of local risk of global warming, controlling for demographics, political affiliation, and cultural beliefs about national policy outcomes. We conclude that perceived personal experience of global warming appears to heighten people's perception of the risks, likely through some combination of direct experience, vicarious experience (e.g., news media stories), and social construction.     

Submarine Groundwater Discharge-Derived Nutrient Loads to San Francisco Bay: Implications to Future Ecosystem Changes

Submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) was quantified at select sites in San Francisco Bay (SFB) from radium (²²³Ra and ²²⁴Ra) and radon (²²²Rn) activities measured in groundwater and surface water using simple mass balance box models. Based on these models, discharge rates in South and Central Bays were 0.3?C7.4?m³?day^?1?m^?1. Although SGD fluxes at the two regions (Central and South Bays) of SFB were of the same order of magnitude, the dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) species associated with SGD were different. In the South Bay, ammonium (NH ₄ ⁺ ) concentrations in groundwater were three-fold higher than in open bay waters, and NH ₄ ⁺ was the primary DIN form discharged by SGD. At the Central Bay site, the primary DIN form in groundwater and associated discharge was nitrate (NO ₃ ^? ). The stable isotope signatures (??¹⁵N_NO3 and ??¹⁸O_NO3) of NO ₃ ^? in the South Bay groundwater and surface waters were both consistent with NO ₃ ^? derived from NH ₄ ⁺ that was isotopically enriched in ¹⁵N by NH ₄ ⁺ volatilization. Based on the calculated SGD fluxes and groundwater nutrient concentrations, nutrient fluxes associated with SGD can account for up to 16?% of DIN and 22?% of DIP in South and Central Bays. The form of DIN contributed to surface waters from SGD may impact the ratio of NO ₃ ^? to NH ₄ ⁺ available to phytoplankton with implications to bay productivity, phytoplankton species distribution, and nutrient uptake rates. This assessment of nutrient delivery via groundwater discharge in SFB may provide vital information for future bay ecological wellbeing and sensitivity to future environmental stressors.     

Tropical Deforestation and Climate Change: What Does the Record Reveal?

Tropical deforestation is widely believed to directly influence the climate at a number of scales. Yet while much has been written about the tropical forest-climate relationship, there is little empirical evidence showing if and how local and regional climates are modified by deforestation. This study presents the results of an analysis of deforestation and climate change in a rain forest in southern Mexico. Records from 18 climate stations in the Selva Lacandona of Chiapas, Mexico were examined and related to an analysis of deforestation based on Landsat images. The area surrounding some stations has been deforested since the stations were established, while the area surroundings others has remained forested. Strong climatic trends were generally evident at the deforested stations, including decreases in the average daily maximum temperature and temperature range. No precipitation changes were observed. A comparison of the results with microclimatic experiments and modeling studies suggests that the climatic impacts of deforestation are overgeneralized at the local scale. Landscape heterogeneity appears to influence the biophysical mechanisms linking tropical forests and climate, and should be explicitly represented in modeling studies.     

Past imperfect, future tense: Archaeology and development

Archaeological sites are valuable nonrenewable resources and they are being destroyed rapidly by modern development projects of all kinds, worldwide. The contextual information in these sites could tell surprising and valuable stories of human behavior over an enormous sweep of time and might contribute to a better future. Archaeologists’ experience of site destruction and their recent efforts to work with local communities toward alternatives to site destruction may offer examples for others concerned with the treatment of nonrenewable resources     

Seasonal and inter-annual variation of mesozooplankton in the coastal upwelling zone off central-southern Chile

Zooplankton sampling at Station 18 off Concepción (36°30′S and 73°07′W), on an average frequency of 30 days (August 2002 to December 2005), allowed the assessment of seasonal and inter-annual variation in zooplankton biomass, its C and N content, and the community structure in relation to upwelling variability. Copepods contributed 79% of the total zooplankton community and were mostly represented by Paracalanus parvus, Oithona similis, Oithona nana, Calanus chilensis, and Rhincalanus nasutus. Other copepod species, euphausiids (mainly Euphausia mucronata), gelatinous zooplankton, and crustacean larvae comprised the rest of the community. Changes in the depth of the upper boundary of the oxygen minimum zone indicated the strongly seasonal upwelling pattern. The bulk of zooplankton biomass and total copepod abundance were both strongly and positively associated with a shallow (<20 m) oxygen minimum zone; these values increased in spring/summer, when upwelling prevailed. Gelatinous zooplankton showed positive abundance anomalies in the spring and winter, whereas euphausiids had no seasonal pattern and a positive anomaly in the fall. The C content and the C/N ratio of zooplankton biomass significantly increased during the spring when chlorophyll-a was high (>5 mg m⁻³). No major changes in zooplankton biomass and species were found from one year to the next. We concluded that upwelling is the key process modulating variability in zooplankton biomass and its community structure in this zone. The spring/summer increase in zooplankton may be largely the result of the aggregation of dominant copepods within the upwelling region; these may reproduce throughout the year, increasing their C content and C/N ratios given high diatom concentrations.     

Management of a marine protected area for sustainability and conflict resolution: Lessons from Loreto Bay National Park (Baja California Sur,Mexico)

The Loreto Bay National Park was established to protect the area's ecosystems from habitat destruction and overexploitation. However, the park has not met two of its primary goals: recovery of commercially valuable fish populations and their sustainable use by stakeholders. Based on evidence from the literature, dialogue with stakeholders, a literature review on using recreational fees for marine protected area (MPA) management, and an economic valuation survey, we provide practical guidelines for addressing factors hindering the park's success. These include: 1) the implementation of management based upon ecosystem science, and rigorous monitoring of park ecosystems, 2) increased communication among stake-holder groups, outreach and education, and 3) a re-organization of the park's administrative structure that would allow for more efficient use of funds. Our results also suggest that the park entrance fee could be raised to support these proposed improvements.     

Coral Recruitment and Regeneration on a Maldivian Reef 21 Months after the Coral Bleaching Event of 1998

Abstract. This paper describes the quantitative inventory of stony corals on a Maldivian reef after the bleaching event of 1998. The detailed data, collected in March 1999 and March 2000, comprise survival, new recruitment and regenerates. They were obtained in 6 transects laid out randomly on the reef flat, on 22 Acropora tables on 6 sites at the reef edge and on 39 Porites lobata blocks and 1 Diploastrea heliopora colony. The present cover of living zooxanthellate corals is reduced to ca. 2 – 5 % of its previous state. Acroporidae and Pocilloporidae were practically wiped out, while Poritidae survived partly and Agariciidae (esp. Pavona) are now the dominant group. New settlements on dead Acropora tables were mainly Agariciidae, followed by Acroporidae and Pocilloporidae. Regenerates on Porites were pronounced and the apparent yearly increase in mass was about threefold that of Diploastrea, which is 3 – 4 mm per year. The influence on reef ecology in terms of coral substrate and species, possible sources of larvae, change of guilds in reef builders, other species and the prospect for further development of the reef, with respect to growth versus erosion, is discussed.