Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment

As carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases accumulate in the atmosphere and contribute to rising global temperatures, it is important to examine how derivative changes in climate may affect natural and managed ecosystems. In this series of papers, we study the impacts of climate change on agriculture, water resources and natural ecosystems in the conterminous United States using twelve scenarios derived from General Circulation Model (GCM) projections to drive biophysical impact models. These scenarios are described in this paper. The scenarios are first put into the context of recent work on climate-change by the IPCC for the 21st century and span two levels of global-mean temperature change and three sets of spatial patterns of change derived from GCM results. In addition, the effect of either the presence or absence of a CO₂ fertilization effect on vegetation is examined by using two levels of atmospheric CO₂ concentration as a proxy variable. Results from three GCM experiments were used to produce different regional patterns of climate change. The three regional patterns for the conterminous United States range from: an increase in temperature above the global-mean level along with a significant decline in precipitation; temperature increases in line with the global-mean with an average increase in precipitation; and, with a sulfate aerosol effect added to in the same model, temperature increases that are lower than the global-mean. The resulting set of scenarios span a wide range of potential climate changes and allows examination of the relative importance of global-mean temperature change, regional climate patterns, aerosol cooling, and CO₂ fertilization effects.     

Changes in Mean Relative Sea Level around Canada in the Twentieth and Twenty-First Centuries

Abstract

Trends in regional mean sea levels can be substantially different from the global mean trend. Here, we first use tide-gauge data and satellite altimetry measurements to examine trends in mean relative sea level (MRSL) for the coasts of Canada over approximately the past 50–100 years. We then combine model output and satellite observations to provide sea level projections for the twenty-first century. The MRSL trend based on historical tide-gauge data shows large regional variations, from 3?mm?y^?1 (higher than the global mean MRSL rise rate of 1.7?mm?y^?1 for 1900–2009) along the southeast Atlantic coast, close to or below the global mean along the Pacific and Arctic coasts, to –9?mm?y^?1 in Hudson Bay, as indicated by the vertical land motion. The combination of altimeter-measured sea level change with Global Positioning System (GPS) data approximately accounts for tide-gauge measurements at most stations for the 1993–2011 period. The projected MRSL change between 1980 and 1999 and between 2090 and 2099 under a medium-high climate change emission scenario (A2) ranges from ?50?cm in northeastern Canada to 75?cm in southeastern Canada. Along the coast of the Beaufort Sea, the MRSL rise is as high as 70?cm. The MRSL change along the Pacific coast varies from ?15 to 50?cm. The ocean steric and dynamical effects contribute to the rise in MRSL along Canadian coasts and are dominant on the southeast coast. Land-ice (glaciers and ice sheets) melt contributes 10–20?cm to the rise in MRSL, except in northeastern Canada. The effect of the vertical land uplift is large and centred near Hudson Bay, significantly reducing the rise in MRSL. The land-ice melt also causes a decrease in MRSL in northeastern Canada. The projected MRSL change under a high emission scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) has a spatial pattern similar to that under A2, with a slightly greater rise in MRSL of 7?cm, on average, and some notable differences at specific sites.     

Simulating Dispersion in the Evening-Transition Boundary Layer

We investigate dispersion in the evening-transition boundary layer using large-eddy simulation (LES). In the LES, a particle model traces pollutant paths using a combination of the resolved flow velocities and a random displacement model to represent subgrid-scale motions. The LES is forced with both a sudden switch-off of the surface heat flux and also a more gradual observed evolution. The LES shows ‘lofting’ of plumes from near-surface releases in the pre-transition convective boundary layer; it also shows the subsequent ‘trapping’ of releases in the post-transition near-surface stable boundary layer and residual layer above. Given the paucity of observations for pollution dispersion in evening transitions, the LES proves a useful reference. We then use the LES to test and improve a one-dimensional Lagrangian Stochastic Model (LSM) such as is often used in practical dispersion studies. The LSM used here includes both time-varying and skewed turbulence statistics. It is forced with the vertical velocity variance, skewness and dissipation from the LES for particle releases at various heights and times in the evening transition. The LSM plume spreads are significantly larger than those from the LES in the post-transition stable boundary-layer trapping regime. The forcing from the LES was thus insufficient to constrain the plume evolution, and inclusion of the significant stratification effects was required. In the so-called modified LSM, a correction to the vertical velocity variance was included to represent the effect of stable stratification and the consequent presence of wave-like motions. The modified LSM shows improved trapping of particles in the post-transition stable boundary layer.     

The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300

We present the greenhouse gas concentrations for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and their extensions beyond 2100, the Extended Concentration Pathways (ECPs). These projections include all major anthropogenic greenhouse gases and are a result of a multi-year effort to produce new scenarios for climate change research. We combine a suite of atmospheric concentration observations and emissions estimates for greenhouse gases (GHGs) through the historical period (1750?C2005) with harmonized emissions projected by four different Integrated Assessment Models for 2005?C2100. As concentrations are somewhat dependent on the future climate itself (due to climate feedbacks in the carbon and other gas cycles), we emulate median response characteristics of models assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report using the reduced-complexity carbon cycle climate model MAGICC6. Projected ??best-estimate?? global-mean surface temperature increases (using inter alia a climate sensitivity of 3°C) range from 1.5°C by 2100 for the lowest of the four RCPs, called both RCP3-PD and RCP2.6, to 4.5°C for the highest one, RCP8.5, relative to pre-industrial levels. Beyond 2100, we present the ECPs that are simple extensions of the RCPs, based on the assumption of either smoothly stabilizing concentrations or constant emissions: For example, the lower RCP2.6 pathway represents a strong mitigation scenario and is extended by assuming constant emissions after 2100 (including net negative CO₂ emissions), leading to CO₂ concentrations returning to 360 ppm by 2300. We also present the GHG concentrations for one supplementary extension, which illustrates the stringent emissions implications of attempting to go back to ECP4.5 concentration levels by 2250 after emissions during the 21^st century followed the higher RCP6 scenario. Corresponding radiative forcing values are presented for the RCP and ECPs.     

Energy Decay of the 2004 Sumatra Tsunami in the World Ocean

The catastrophic Indian Ocean tsunami generated off the coast of Sumatra on 26 December 2004 was recorded by a large number of tide gauges throughout the World Ocean. This study uses gauge records from 173 sites to examine the characteristics and energy decay of the tsunami waves from this event in the Indian, Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Findings reveal that the decay (e-folding) time of the tsunami wave energy within a given oceanic basin is not uniform, as previously reported, but depends on the absorption characteristics of the shelf adjacent to the coastal observation site and the time for the waves to reach the site from the source region. In general, the decay times for island and open-ocean bottom stations are found to be shorter than for coastal mainland stations. Decay times for the 2004 Sumatra tsunami ranged from about 13 h for islands in the Indian Ocean to 40–45 h for mainland stations in the North Pacific.     

Measurements of hot plasmas in the magnetosphere of Jupiter

This paper presents an overview of a number of the principal findings regarding the hot plasmas (E 50 keV) in Jupiter's magnetosphere by the HISCALE instrument during the encounter of the Ulysses spacecraft with the planet in February 1992. The hot plasma ion fluxes measured by HI-SCALE in the dayside magnetosphere are similar to those measured in the same energy range in this region by the Voyager spacecraft in 1979. Within the dayside plasma sheet, the hot-ion energy densities are comparable with, or larger than, the magnetic field energy densities; these hot ions are found to corotate at about one-half the planetary corotational speed. For ions of energies 500 keV/nucleon, the protons contributed from 50–60% to as much as 80% of the energy content of these plasmas. Strong, magnetic-field-aligned streaming was found for both the ions and electrons in the high-latitude duskside magnetosphere. The ion and electron pitch-angle distributions could be characterized by cos²⁵ α throughout many of the high anisotropy intervals of the outbound pass. There is some evidence in the ion pitch-angle distributions for a corotational component in the hot plasmas at high Jovian latitudes. While there are limitations owing to the finite geometries of the detector telescope systems on the determination of the angular spreads of the ion and electron beams, the measurements show that there are intervals when the particle distributions are not bidirectional. At such times, locally the hot plasmas could be carrying currents of 10⁻⁴μAm⁻². The temporal variations in the streaming electron fluxes are substantially larger than the variations measured for the fluxes that are more locally mirroring. The temporal variations contain periodicities that may correspond to hydromagnetic wave frequencies in the magnetosphere as well as to larger scale motions of magnetospheric plasmas. On nearly half of the days for about a 130 day interval around the time of the Ulysses encounter with the planet, particles of Jovian origin were measured in the interplanetary medium. An event discussed herein shows evidence of an energy dependence of the particle release process from the planetary magnetosphere into the interplanetary medium.     

Causes of the frequency shift of whistler-mode signals

Whistler-mode signals received at Wellington, New Zealand, from NLK in Seattle are typically doppler shifted ~0.1 Hz from the transmitter frequency, implying a changing phase path. At least during quiet times, this is shown to be primarily caused by (inward) drifts of the whistler duct rather than by changing electron density along the path. The mechanism is established by measuring the ratio of the changes in phase and group times for the path during the nights studied. On one of these nights, the drift is further confirmed by measurements on natural whistlers.     

Student Periodical

AUCKLAND STUDENT GEOGRAPHER. Journal of the University of Auckland Geographical Association, 1964, Vol. 1, No. 1, pp. 66.     

The 2010 Chilean Tsunami Off the West Coast of Canada and the Northwest Coast of the United States

The major (M _w = 8.8) Chilean earthquake of 27 February 2010 generated a trans-oceanic tsunami that was observed throughout the Pacific Ocean. Waves associated with this event had features similar to those of the 1960 tsunami generated in the same region by the Great (M _w = 9.5) 1960 Chilean Earthquake. Both tsunamis were clearly observed on the coast of British Columbia. The 1960 tsunami was measured by 17 analog pen-and-paper tide gauges, while the 2010 tsunami was measured by 11 modern digital coastal tide gauges, four NEPTUNE-Canada bottom pressure recorders located offshore from southern Vancouver Island, and two nearby open-ocean DART stations. The 2010 records were augmented by data from seven NOAA tide gauges on the coast of Washington State. This study examines the principal characteristics of the waves from the 2010 event (height, period, duration, and arrival and travel times) and compares these properties for the west coast of Canada with corresponding properties of the 1960 tsunami. Results show that the 2010 waves were approximately 3.5 times smaller than the 1960 waves and reached the British Columbia coast 1 h earlier. The maximum 2010 wave heights were observed at Port Alberni (98.4 cm) and Winter Harbour (68.3 cm); the observed periods ranged from 12 min at Port Hardy to 110–120 min at Prince Rupert and Port Alberni and 150 min at Bamfield. The open-ocean records had maximum wave heights of 6–11 cm and typical periods of 7 and 15 min. Coastal and open-ocean tsunami records revealed persistent oscillations that “rang” for 3–4 days. Tsunami energy occupied a broad band of periods from 3 to 300 min. Estimation of the inverse celerity vectors from cross-correlation analysis of the deep-sea tsunami records shows that the tsunami waves underwent refraction as they approached the coast of Vancouver Island with the direction of the incoming waves changing from an initial direction of 340° True to a direction of 15° True for the second train of waves that arrived 7 h later after possible reflection from the Marquesas and Hawaiian islands.