Harmonization of land-use scenarios for the period 1500�C2100: 600?years of global gridded annual land-use transitions, wood harvest, and resulting secondary lands

In preparation for the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the international community is developing new advanced Earth System Models (ESMs) to assess the combined effects of human activities (e.g. land use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon-climate system. In addition, four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios of the future (2005?C2100) are being provided by four Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) teams to be used as input to the ESMs for future carbon-climate projections (Moss et al. 2010). The diversity of approaches and requirements among IAMs and ESMs for tracking land-use change, along with the dependence of model projections on land-use history, presents a challenge for effectively passing data between these communities and for smoothly transitioning from the historical estimates to future projections. Here, a harmonized set of land-use scenarios are presented that smoothly connects historical reconstructions of land use with future projections, in the format required by ESMs. The land-use harmonization strategy estimates fractional land-use patterns and underlying land-use transitions annually for the time period 1500?C2100 at 0.5°?×?0.5° resolution. Inputs include new gridded historical maps of crop and pasture data from HYDE 3.1 for 1500?C2005, updated estimates of historical national wood harvest and of shifting cultivation, and future information on crop, pasture, and wood harvest from the IAM implementations of the RCPs for the period 2005?C2100. The computational method integrates these multiple data sources, while minimizing differences at the transition between the historical reconstruction ending conditions and IAM initial conditions, and working to preserve the future changes depicted by the IAMs at the grid cell level. This study for the first time harmonizes land-use history data together with future scenario information from multiple IAMs into a single consistent, spatially gridded, set of land-use change scenarios for studies of human impacts on the past, present, and future Earth system.     

The lower boundary of the Adelaide system and older basement relationships in south Australia∗

The stratigraphical problem of defining the lower boundary of the Adelaide System is discussed in relation to the geology of several critical areas in the Adelaide Geosyncline and adjacent shelf‐platform.

The Precambrian stratigraphical succession and geological history is outlined with the aid of Rb/Sr age‐determinations made by Dr W. Compston of the Australian National University.

It is concluded that the lower boundary of the Adelaide System is related to the collapse of older basement positive areas on which a regional erosional surface had developed. This surface is defined by the Callanna Beds, the oldest deposits of Willouran age. Willouran sedimentation began some time between 1,340 m.y. and 1,490 m.y. ago. Erosion of the basement rocks probably occupied a major early part of this time interval.     

The Entrainment Rate for Buoyant Plumes in a Crossflow

We consider large-eddy simulations (LES) of buoyant plumes from a circular source with initial buoyancy flux F ₀ released into a stratified environment with constant buoyancy frequency N and a uniform crossflow with velocity U. We make a systematic comparison of the LES results with the mathematical theory of plumes in a crossflow. We pay particular attention to the limits [(U)\tilde] << 1{\tilde{U}\ll1} and [(U)\tilde] >> 1{\tilde{U}\gg 1}, where [(U)\tilde]=U/(F₀ N)^1/4{\tilde{U}=U/(F_0 N)^{1/4}}, for which analytical results are possible. For [(U)\tilde] >> 1{\tilde{U}\gg 1}, the LES results show good agreement with the well-known two-thirds law for the rise in height of the plume. Sufficiently far above the source, the centreline vertical velocity of the LES plumes is consistent with the analytical z ^−1/3 and z ^−1/2 scalings for respectively [(U)\tilde] << 1{\tilde{U}\ll 1} and [(U)\tilde] >> 1{\tilde{U}\gg 1}. In the general case, where the entrainment is assumed to be the sum of the contributions from the horizontal and vertical velocity components, we find that the discrepancy between the LES data and numerical solutions of the plume equations is largest for [(U)\tilde]=O(1){\tilde{U}=O(1)}. We propose a modified additive entrainment assumption in which the contributions from the horizontal and vertical velocity components are not equally weighted. We test this against observations of the plume generated by the Buncefield fire in the U.K. in December 2005 and find that the results compare favourably. We also show that the oscillations of the plume as it settles down to its final rise height may be attenuated by the radiation of gravity waves. For [(U)\tilde] << 1{\tilde{U}\ll 1} the oscillations decay rapidly due to the transport of energy away from the plume by gravity waves. For ${\tilde{U}>rsim 1}${\tilde{U}>rsim 1} the gravity waves travel in the same direction and at the same speed as the flow. In this case, the oscillations of the plume do not decay greatly by radiation of gravity waves.     

Observations on seismic wave equation and reflection coefficient symmetries in stratified media

Summary. The equations describing seismic waves in a stratified earth have a number of symmetry properties, one of which has recently been used by Garmany to derive a simple expression for the inverse of the matrix of eigenvectors appearing in the solution of the equations. We review these symmetries of the wave equation in several notations to demonstrate that the property used by Garmany is distinct from the usual symmetries found in the seismological literature. Like the others, the new symmetry has implications for the reflection and transmission properties of a medium. These implications are briefly reviewed in order to show how the new symmetry is placed relative to the others. A limited discussion of the physical origins of the symmetries is given and, though the overall picture is incomplete, it is noted that the new symmetry yields conservation of energy for reflection/transmission at a single interface in all types of media (anisotropic, lossy, etc.).     

Sekundäre Umlagerung Pflanzlicher Mikrofossilien in klastischen Sedimenten

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Drifter Observations of Anticyclonic Eddies near Bussol' Strait, the Kuril Islands

Hydrographic surveys and satellite imaging reveal that mesoscale anticyclonic (AC) eddies are common features of the area south of Bussol' Strait, the deepest of the Kuril straits connecting the western North Pacific and Sea of Okhotsk. To examine the velocity structure of these eddies, we deployed groups of 15-m drogued satellite-tracked surface drifters over the Kuril-Kamchatka Trench in the fall of 1990 and late summer of 1993. Drifters in both groups entered large AC eddies centered over the axis of the trench seaward of Bussol' Strait and subsequently underwent a slow northeastward translation. One drifter (Drifter 1315) deployed near the center of the “Bussol' eddy” in 1990, remained in the eddy for roughly 45 days and made five loops at successively greater distances from the eddy center. Large-amplitude (80–100 cm/s) storm-generated inertial oscillations were observed during the first two loops. The vorticity field associated with the eddy resulted in a Doppler “red-shift” of inertial frequency motions such that the “effective” inertial period of 21 hours was roughly 4 hours greater than the nominal inertial period for the drifter latitude (45°N). In 1993, a second drifter (Drifter 15371) was retained in the Bussol' eddy for about 40 days. This eddy had characteristics similar to those of the 1990 eddy but was devoid of significant high-frequency motions until the drifter's final half loop. The observed spatial scales, persistence, and slow poleward translation of the eddies suggests that they play an important role in the dynamics of the East Kamchatka and Oyashio current systems. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The oil spill behaviour model of the canadian atmospheric environment service. Part II: Evaluation of model guidance for emergency response

Abstract

In a companion paper the theoretical basis for the Canadian Atmospheric Environment Service oil spill behaviour model was discussed along with its evaluation, in non‐real time, using data collected from field experiments and a real spill. This paper deals with the use of the model in real time to provide guidance in support of the emergency created by an oil spill in the Canadian Beaufort Sea. The spill of about 2440 barrels of diesel oil occurred in September 1985, the result of storm damage to an artificial island used for hydrocarbon exploration.

Model simulations were carried out for two time periods while the spill was being tracked. These simulations identified the marked shifts in the direction of movement of the spill. While the predictive skills for the two time periods varied, with re‐initialization the final observed slick location was predicted to within 2 km. This model prediction was used by the regulatory authorities as guidance information in locating the slick when it could not be easily spotted from the air. The prediction of the size of the slick 27 h after initial time was in very good agreement with observations. A qualitative evaluation of the model‐simulated weathering of the oil was also carried out.