The dynamical equations of polar wander and the global characteristics of the lithosphere as extracted from rotational data

The initial value problem describing the linear responses of the spin axis of a layered viscoelastic planet from surface loading is studied by means of Laplace transform techniques. A complete solution of polar motion requires the usage of two classes of eigenspectra: one arising from viscoelastic relaxation of the mantle due to surface forcing, the other involving the gradual readjustment of the spin axis as a consequence of mantle viscoelasticity. Our analytical 4-layer model comprising an elastic lithosphere, a two-layer, adiabatically stratified, viscoelastic mantle and an inviscid core has been incorporated into this formalism in which rotational deformation and isostatic relaxation are taken into account for all times. From employing both sets of rotational data, polar variations from the 70 years of data from the International Latitude Service (I.L.S.) and the non-tidal deceleration of the length of the day (l.o.d.) an estimate of the globally averaged lithosphere of between 130 and 200 km is obtained from the long wavelength flexural mode due to the degree-two harmonic. This range of values may have strong implications on the mode of continental evolution.     

Differential developmental toxicity of naphthoic acid isomers in medaka (Oryzias latipes) embryos

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are widespread persistent pollutants that readily undergo biotic and abiotic conversion to numerous transformation products in rivers, lakes and estuarine sediments. Here we characterize the developmental toxicity of four PAH transformation products each structural isomers of hydroxynaphthoic acid: 1H2NA, 2H1NA, 2H3NA, and 6H2NA. Medaka fish (Oryzias latipes) embryos and eleutheroembryos were used to determine toxicity. A 96-well micro-plate format was used to establish a robust, statistically significant platform for assessment of early life stages. Individual naphthoic acid isomers demonstrated a rank order of toxicity with 1H2NA>2H1NA>2H3NA>6H2NA being more toxic. Abnormalities of circulatory system were most pronounced including pericardial edema and tube heart. To determine if HNA isomers were AhR ligands, spatial-temporal expression and activity of CYP1A was measured via in vivo EROD assessments. qPCR measurement of CYP1A induction proved different between isomers dosed at respective concentrations affecting 50% of exposed individuals (EC50s). In vitro, all ANH isomers transactivated mouse AhR using a medaka CYP1A promoter specific reporter assay. Circulatory abnormalities followed P450 induction and response was consistent with PAH toxicity. A 96-well micro-plates proved suitable as exposure chambers and provided statistically sound evaluations as well as efficient toxicity screens. Our results demonstrate the use of medaka embryos for toxicity analysis thereby achieving REACH objectives for the reduction of adult animal testing in toxicity evaluations.     

Selection of noise parameters for Kalman filter

The Bayesian probabilistic approach is proposed to estimate the process noise and measurement noise parameters for a Kalman filter. With state vectors and covariance matrices estimated by the Kalman filter, the likehood of the measurements can be constructed as a function of the process noise and measurement noise parameters. By maximizing the likelihood function with respect to these noise parameters, the optimal values can be obtained. Furthermore, the Bayesian probabilistic approach allows the associated uncertainty to be quantified. Examples using a single-degree-of-freedom system and a ten-story building illustrate the proposed method. The effect on the performance of the Kalman filter due to the selection of the process noise and measurement noise parameters was demonstrated. The optimal values of the noise parameters were found to be close to the actual values in the sense that the actual parameters were in the region with significant probability density. Through these examples, the Bayesian approach was shown to have the capability to provide accurate estimates of the noise parameters of the Kalman filter, and hence for state estimation.     

Visualization and Analysis of Mixing Dynamical Properties in Convecting Systems with Different Rheologies

We analyzed and compared the mixing properties of 2-D mantle convection models. Two rheologically different models, Newtonian and non-Newtonian (power-law), were considered with both the line and field methods. The line method is based on monitoring of passive particles joined into lines, while the field method relies on the advection of a passive scalar field. Both visual and quantitative estimates revealed that the efficiency of the Newtonian mixing is greater than the non-Newtonian. A heterogeneity placed in the non-Newtonian convection forms horizontal structures, which may persist for at least 1 Ga on the upper-mantle scale. In addition, the non-Newtonian medium reveals a lesser amount of stretching of the lines than the Newtonian material. The rate of the Newtonian stretching fits well with an exponential dependence with time, while the non-Newtonian rheology shows the stretching rate close to a power-law dependence with time. In the Newtonian medium the heterogeneity is reorganized into two unstable vertical columns, while the non-Newtonian mixing favors horizontal structures. In the latter case, these structures are sufficiently stable in both the temporal and spatial planes to explain the mantle geochemical and geophysical heterogeneities. Due to the non-linear character of power-law rheology, the non-Newtonian medium offers a “natural” scale-dependent resistance to deformation, which prevents efficient mixing at the intermediate length scales.     

Doubled CO2 impact on subarctic marine carbon cycle: a case study at Ocean Station P

Along with meteorological observations, complementary and systematic oceanographic observations of various physical, biological and chemical parameters have been made at Ocean Station P (OSP) (50°N, 145°W) since the early 1950s. These decadal time scale data have contributed to a better understanding of the physical, biological and chemical processes in the surface layer of the northeastern subarctic region of the Pacific Ocean. These data have demonstrated the importance of the North Pacific in the global carbon cycle and, in particular, the role of biological/chemical processes in the net exchange of CO₂ across the air–sea interface. Although we do not fully comprehend how climatic variations influence marine communities or marine biogeochemistry, previous studies have provided some basic understanding of the mechanisms controlling the seasonal and inter-annual variations of biological and chemical parameters (such as phytoplankton, bacteria, nitrate/ammonium concentration) at OSP, and how they affect the carbon cycling in the subarctic North Pacific. In this study, we investigate how these mechanisms might alter the seasonal variations of these parameters at OSP under a 2XCO₂ condition. We examine these influences using a new biological model calibrated by the climatological data from OSP. For the 2XCO₂ simulation, the biological model is driven off line (i.e., no feedback to the ocean/atmospheric model components) by the climatology plus 2XCO₂−1XCO₂ outputs from a global surface ocean model and the Canadian GCM. Under the 2XCO₂ condition, the upper layer ocean shows an increase in the entrainment rate at the bottom of the mixed layer for OSP during the late autumn and winter seasons, resulting in an increase in the f-ratio. Although there is an overall increase in the primary production (PP) by 3–18%, a decrease in the biomass of small phytoplankton and microzooplankton (due to mesozooplankton grazing) lowers the concentration of dissolved organic matter (DOM) by 4–25%. The model also predicts a significant increase in the concentrations of nitrate and ammonium, and in bacterial production during July and August. Doubling of the atmospheric CO₂ from 330 to 660 ppm forces the marine pCO₂ to increase by about 63%, much of which is driven by an increased flux of CO₂ from the atmosphere to the oceans.     

Secondary upwelling instabilities developed in high Rayleigh number convection: Possible applications to hot spots

We have conducted numerical experiments for mantle convection in an axisymmetrical spherical-shell geometry from Rayleigh numbers ranging from three million to 10 billion for a purely basal heating configuration. We focus on the development of secondary instabilities developed from plumes and compare them with laboratory experiments by Skilbeck and Whitehead (1978) and Whitehead, (1982). For Rayleigh numbers between around thirty million to one billion, a string of these secondary instabilities can develop from a single plume. Analysis of the spectrum of wavelength associated with the fold instabilities shows that there is a window in the Rayleigh number between around ten million and one bilion where these secondary folding instabilities would develop. These results, when applied to the upper mantle, may explain the formation of hot-spots in a turbulently convecting upper-mantle with a Rayleigh number greater than ten million.     

An upper ocean general circulation model for climate studies: global simulation with seasonal cycle

The global ocean circulation with a seasonal cycle has been simulated with a two-and-a-half layer upper-ocean model. This model was developed for the purpose of coupling to an atmospheric general circulation model for climate studies on decadal time scales. The horizontal resolution is 4° latitude by 5° longitude and is thus not eddy-resolving. Effects of bottom topography are neglected. In the vertical, the model resolves the oceanic mixed layer and the thermocline. A thermodynamic sea-ice model is coupled to the mixed layer. The model is forced at the surface with seasonally varying (a) observed wind stress, (b) heat fluxes, as defined by an atmospheric equilibrium temperature, and (c) Newtonian-type surface salt fluxes. The second layer is coupled to the underlying deep ocean through Newtonian-type diffusive heat and salt fluxes, convective overturning, and mass entrainment in the upwelling regions of the subpolar gyres. The overall global distributions of mixed layer temperature, salinity and thickness are favorably reproduced. Inherent limitations due to coarse horizontal resolution result in large mixed-layer temperature errors near continental boundaries and in weak current systems. Sea ice distributions agree well with observations except in the interiors of the Ross and Weddell Seas. A realistic time rate of change of heat storage is simulated. There is also realistic heat transport from low to high latitudes.     

Evaluation of drainage tunnel effectiveness in landslide control

Infiltration of rainfall into hillslopes is often an important factor in triggering landslides. Using underground water drainage works together with anti-slide piles has been an effective method of landslide control, yet their effectiveness is inadequately discussed in the literature. This paper studies the influence of rainfall on the change in the underground water level beneath a slope by real-time and synchronic monitoring of the rainfall, the underground water level in the boreholes, and the flow rate of the underground drainage tunnel. The effectiveness of the underground drainage tunnel in preventing the rise of the underground water level of the slope is discussed. The researchers also study the deformation behavior of the anti-slide piles by monitoring the lateral displacement of the piles and analyzing the thrust that the anti-slide piles bear by numerical inversion techniques. The results indicate that there is an apparent relationship between the lag in the rising of the underground water level caused by a rainfall and that caused by the immediately previous rainfall. When there is a rainfall accumulation before the occurrence of a heavy rain, this particular heavy rainfall will cause a rapid rise of the underground water level beneath the slope. The monitoring data analysis shows that the flow rate of the underground drainage tunnel increases first, and then the underground water level of the slope rises after a rainfall. In other words, the flow rate of the underground drainage tunnel increases at a rate faster than that of the rise of the underground water level. Hence, the underground drainage tunnel can effectively lower the rise of the underground water level induced by a rainfall. Besides, based on the monitoring data of the lateral displacement of the anti-slide piles and subsequent analysis, the working state of the anti-slide piles is justified. It thus indirectly validates the benefits of using underground drainage tunnel in landslide control.