Predicting the displacement of triple pendulum™ bearings in a full‐scale shaking experiment using a three‐dimensional element

The accuracy of a series spring model to predict the peak displacement and displacement history of Triple Pendulum? (TP) bearings in a strongly shaken, full‐scale building is evaluated in this paper. The series spring model was implemented as a self‐contained three‐dimensional TP bearing element in OpenSees and is now available for general use. The TP bearing element contains the option for constant friction or a generalized friction model that accounts for the effect of instantaneous velocity and compression load on the friction coefficient. Comparison between numerical simulation and experimental data of a five‐story steel moment frame building shows that the peak displacement of isolation system can generally be predicted with confidence using a constant friction coefficient model. The friction coefficient model accounting for the effect of axial load and velocity leads to minor improvement over the constant friction coefficient models in some cases. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modeling Variably Saturated Subsurface Solute Transport with MODFLOW‐UZF and MT3DMS

The MT3DMS groundwater solute transport model was modified to simulate solute transport in the unsaturated zone by incorporating the unsaturated‐zone flow (UZF1) package developed for MODFLOW. The modified MT3DMS code uses a volume‐averaged approach in which Lagrangian‐based UZF1 fluid fluxes and storage changes are mapped onto a fixed grid. Referred to as UZF‐MT3DMS, the linked model was tested against published benchmarks solved analytically as well as against other published codes, most frequently the U.S. Geological Survey's Variably‐Saturated Two‐Dimensional Flow and Transport Model. Results from a suite of test cases demonstrate that the modified code accurately simulates solute advection, dispersion, and reaction in the unsaturated zone. Two‐ and three‐dimensional simulations also were investigated to ensure unsaturated‐saturated zone interaction was simulated correctly. Because the UZF1 solution is analytical, large‐scale flow and transport investigations can be performed free from the computational and data burdens required by numerical solutions to Richards' equation. Results demonstrate that significant simulation runtime savings can be achieved with UZF‐MT3DMS, an important development when hundreds or thousands of model runs are required during parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis. Three‐dimensional variably saturated flow and transport simulations revealed UZF‐MT3DMS to have runtimes that are less than one tenth of the time required by models that rely on Richards' equation. Given its accuracy and efficiency, and the wide‐spread use of both MODFLOW and MT3DMS, the added capability of unsaturated‐zone transport in this familiar modeling framework stands to benefit a broad user‐ship.     

A COMPARISON OF HYDROLOGY AND VEGETATION BETWEEN A CHANNELIZED STREAM AND A NONCHANNELIZED STREAM IN WESTERN TENNESSEE

The purpose of this study was to provide baseline data on floodplain forest structure, composition, and function that would be needed to predict and monitor the consequences of a proposed stream restoration project. This project would involve the “dechannelization” of Stokes Creek, a stream in western Tennessee that was channelized and leveed in the first half of the 1900s. To this end, we collected data on surface hydrology, soil redox potential (Eh), and the structure and composition of the floodplain vegetation of Stokes Creek. To place our findings into a regional context, we also collected comparable vegetation data from plots located along a nonchannelized stream reach of the Wolf River near Moscow, Tennessee. While hydrologic fluctuations of floodplain sites were synchronous with river dynamics for the Wolf River, the hydrology of floodplain sites at Stokes Creek was constrained by the influence of beaver dams, backflooding, and ponding of overland flow behind levees. Consequently, composition of the forest overstory, understory, and herbaceous strata was significantly different between the two sites. For example, Stokes Creek had a noticeable lack of cypress and tupelo sites, and a greater abundance of red maple. Analyses of size-class structure and woody debris quantity reinforced the existing differences between the more natural and human-impacted systems. While the current hydrology apparently has a negative affect on bottomland hardwoods, scattered regeneration stems and soil redox measurements indicate that a dechannelization effort that yielded lower water tables in the Stokes Creek floodplain potentially could increase bottomland hardwood establishment. [Key words: channelization, western Tennessee, bottomland hardwoods, hydrology.]     

Implications of spatial reservoir uncertainty for CO2 sequestration in the east Snake River Plain, Idaho (USA)

Basalt-hosted hydrogeologic systems have been proposed for geologic CO₂ sequestration based on laboratory research suggesting rapid mineralization rates. However, despite this theoretical appeal, little is known about the impacts of basalt fracture heterogeneity on CO₂ migration at commercial scales. Evaluating the suitability of basalt reservoirs is complicated by incomplete knowledge of in-situ fracture distributions at depths required for CO₂ sequestration. In this work, a numerical experiment is used to investigate the effects of spatial reservoir uncertainty for geologic CO₂ sequestration in the east Snake River Plain, Idaho (USA). Two criteria are investigated: (1) formation injectivity and (2) confinement potential. Several theoretical tools are invoked to develop a field-based approach for geostatistical reservoir characterization and their implementation is illustrated. Geologic CO₂ sequestration is simulated for 10?years of constant-rate injection at ~680,000 tons per year and modeled by Monte Carlo simulation such that model variability is a function of spatial reservoir heterogeneity. Results suggest that the spatial distribution of heterogeneous permeability structures is a controlling influence on formation injectivity. Analysis of confinement potential is less conclusive; however, in the absence of confining sedimentary interbeds within the basalt pile, rapid mineralization may be necessary to reduce the risk of escape.     

Deriving fault-slip histories to test for secular variation in slip,with examples from the Kunlun and Awatere faults

Although offset and age data from displaced landforms are essential for identifying earthquake clusters and thus testing whether faults slip at uniform or secularly varying rates, it is not clear how the uncertainties in such measurements should be propagated so as to yield a robust fault-slip history (i.e., record of fault displacement over time). Here we develop a Monte Carlo approach for estimating the distribution of geologically reasonable fault-slip histories that fit the offset and age data from a population of dated and displaced landforms. The model assumes that the landforms share common faulting histories, the offset and age constraints are correct, and the fault has not reversed shear sense. Analysis of the model results yields both a precise average slip rate, in the case where a linear fit is applied to the data, and a best-fit fault-slip history, in the case where the linear constraint is removed. The method can be used to test for secular variation in slip because the uncertainty on this best-fit history is quantified. By applying the method to previously published morphochronologic data from faulted late Quaternary terrace risers along the Kunlun fault in China and the Awatere fault in New Zealand, we have assessed the extent to which our modeled average slip rates match previously reported values and the data support previous interpretations of uniform slip rate. The Kunlun data set yields average slip rates of 8.7 + 3.6/?2.1 mm/yr and 5.1 + 1.6/?1.2 mm/yr (68.27% confidence), for the central and eastern reaches of the fault, respectively, both of which match previously published slip rates. Our analysis further indicates that these fault reaches have both slipped uniformly over the latest Quaternary. In contrast, analysis of data from the Saxton River site along the Awatere fault reveals a mid-Holocene deceleration in slip rate from 6.2 + 1.6/?1.4 mm/yr to 2.8 + 1.0/?0.6 mm/yr. This result contradicts previous interpretations of uniform slip along the Awatere fault. The Monte Carlo method we present here for quantifying fault-slip histories using the offset and age data from a population of faulted landforms provides an important tool for distinguishing temporally uniform from secularly varying fault slip.     

Eutrophication and salinization of urban and rural kettle lakes in Kalamazoo and Barry Counties,Michigan, USA

Salinization and eutrophication caused by runoff of road salt and nutrients was assessed in three kettle lakes, two (Woods and Asylum Lakes) located in urban Kalamazoo, MI, and one (Brewster Lake) in rural Hastings, MI. Profiles of dissolved O₂, conductivity, pH, and temperature were measured in situ, at half meter intervals. Water samples were collected at discrete depth intervals of 1 m and analyzed for Fe(II), Mn(II), ammonium, alkalinity, Cl^?, Na, Mg, K and Ca. Results of this study indicate that all three lakes are eutrophic with anoxic bottom waters. Conductivity was much greater, and Cl^? levels were more than 100 times greater, in the two urban lakes compared to the rural lake, demonstrating the significant impact of road salt deicers on urban lake water chemistry.     

On the use of IPCC-class models to assess the impact of climate on Living Marine Resources

The study of climate impacts on Living Marine Resources (LMRs) has increased rapidly in recent years with the availability of climate model simulations contributed to the assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Collaboration between climate and LMR scientists and shared understanding of critical challenges for such applications are essential for developing robust projections of climate impacts on LMRs. This paper assesses present approaches for generating projections of climate impacts on LMRs using IPCC-class climate models, recommends practices that should be followed for these applications, and identifies priority developments that could improve current projections. Understanding of the climate system and its representation within climate models has progressed to a point where many climate model outputs can now be used effectively to make LMR projections. However, uncertainty in climate model projections (particularly biases and inter-model spread at regional to local scales), coarse climate model resolution, and the uncertainty and potential complexity of the mechanisms underlying the response of LMRs to climate limit the robustness and precision of LMR projections. A variety of techniques including the analysis of multi-model ensembles, bias corrections, and statistical and dynamical downscaling can ameliorate some limitations, though the assumptions underlying these approaches and the sensitivity of results to their application must be assessed for each application. Developments in LMR science that could improve current projections of climate impacts on LMRs include improved understanding of the multi-scale mechanisms that link climate and LMRs and better representations of these mechanisms within more holistic LMR models. These developments require a strong baseline of field and laboratory observations including long time series and measurements over the broad range of spatial and temporal scales over which LMRs and climate interact. Priority developments for IPCC-class climate models include improved model accuracy (particularly at regional and local scales), inter-annual to decadal-scale predictions, and the continued development of earth system models capable of simulating the evolution of both the physical climate system and biosphere. Efforts to address these issues should occur in parallel and be informed by the continued application of existing climate and LMR models.     

Trophic Resource Overlap Between Small Elasmobranchs and Sympatric Teleosts in Mid-Atlantic Bight Nearshore Habitats

Small, abundant elasmobranchs use shallow marine areas (<20 m depth) of the US Middle Atlantic coast as nurseries and adult foraging habitat, an area also used by a diverse assemblage of economically important juvenile and adult teleost species. Specimens of three small elasmobranch species (smooth dogfish Mustelus canis, clearnose skate Raja eglanteria, and bullnose ray Myliobatis freminvillii) were collected in August 2007 and 2008 from a study area of ∼150 km², extending 22 km south from Ocean City, Maryland, USA (38° 19′ N) and offshore from 5- to 20-m depth. Stomach contents indicated that fish were part of the diets of smooth dogfish and clearnose skate at a level comparable with sympatric piscivorous teleosts. However, stable isotope data suggest that piscivory is likely an opportunistic foraging behavior in this habitat. Studied elasmobranchs were secondary-tertiary consumers with diets composed primarily of decapod crustaceans, fish, and mollusks. There was significant overlap in diet composition, spatial distribution, and diel stomach fullness patterns between clearnose skate, southern kingfish Menticirrhus americanus (teleost) and, to a lesser extent, smooth dogfish. Despite this evidence for piscivory, their relatively low densities suggest that predation by these elasmobranchs is unlikely to affect teleost populations in shallow coastal ocean habitats. If shared prey were to become scarce, then competitive interactions are possible.     

Temporal and chemical connections between plutons and ignimbrites from the Mount Princeton magmatic center

The Mount Princeton magmatic center, located in central Colorado, consists of the epizonal Mount Princeton batholith, the nested Mount Aetna caldera, and volumetrically minor leucogranites. New CA-TIMS U/Pb zircon ages indicate the majority of the Mount Princeton batholith was emplaced during a period of regional ignimbrite quiescence. The structurally highest unit of quartz monzonite yields a ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U age of 35.80 ± 0.10 Ma, and the youngest dated unit of the quartz monzonite is a porphyritic unit that yields a ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U age of 35.37 ± 0.10 Ma. Using the exposed, dated volume of the quartz monzonite and new geochronology yields an estimated pluton filling rate of ~0.002 km³/a. This rate is comparable to the accumulation rates published for other plutons, and at least an order of magnitude slower than fluxes necessary to support accumulation of large eruptible magma volumes. Geochronology for the two large ignimbrites spatially associated with the batholith indicates a temporal disconnect between the vast majority of pluton building and explosive eruption of magma. The Wall Mountain Tuff erupted from a source in the same geographic area as the Mount Princeton batholith at 37.3 Ma (Ar/Ar sanidine), but no structural evidence of a caldera or temporally associated plutonic rocks is known. The Badger Creek Tuff erupted at 34.3 Ma (Ar/Ar sanidine) during the formation of the Mount Aetna caldera in the southern portion of the batholith. Our ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U age for the Badger Creek Tuff is 34.47 ± 0.05. The only analyzed plutonic rocks of similar age to the Badger Creek Tuff are an extra-caldera dike with a ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U age of 34.57 ± 0.08 Ma, a ring dike with a ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U age of 34.48 ± 0.09 Ma, and a portion of the Mount Aetna pluton with a ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U age of 34.60 ± 0.13 Ma. The small volume intrusions related to the eruption of the Badger Creek Tuff are chemically similar to the ignimbrite and show no signature of crystal–liquid separation in the shallow crust.