Damaging Weather Conditions in the United States: A Selection of Data Quality and Monitoring Issues

The limitations of observational data available for the study of damaging weather conditions (e.g., storms and extreme temperature events) are discussed. Crop and property insurance loss records are advocated as a potential supplement to traditional weather observations, as they integrate specific information about the spatial dimension of damaging weather conditions and the cost of damage they cause. Insurance loss data may also be analyzed in combination with meteorological data sets to derive indicator variables for the detection of damaging weather events.Two sets of insurance data are described. One record provides adjusted property losses associated with "catastrophic" weather events since 1949, and the other is an index of the amount of crop-hail losses per year since 1948. Additionally, an example of the benefits of the combination of insurance and meteorological data is presented through a selection of results from a recent study of freezing temperatures in the southeastern United States and associated insurance claims related to pipe bursting.If insurance data are to be applied in the future in similar studies of damaging weather conditions, it is essential that the insurance industry continues to collect and adjust loss data and periodically confirm that adjustment factors are temporally consistent.     

Holocene climatic change in Morocco: a quantitative reconstruction from pollen data

 Annual precipitation, July and January temperatures were reconstructed from a continuous Holocene pollen sequence from the Middle Atlas, Morocco, using the best modern analogues method. The reconstructions show a clear difference between the early and late Holocene: from ∼10 ka to ∼6.5 ka the climate was drier and warmer than during the period since 6.5 ka. The average value of annual precipitation was ∼870 mm until 6.5 ka, then rose to ∼940 mm. Between 10 ka and 6.5 ka January and July temperatures were about 4 °C higher than the present. Both temperatures show a marked decrease between 7 ka and 6 ka. After 6.5 ka July and January temperatures fluctuated between 21 and 23 °C, and 2.5 and 5 °C respectively. January temperatures show a period of intermediate values (∼3.5 °C) between 4 ka and 5.5 ka. The reconstructed climate values generally match palaeolimnological data from the same core, which show five intervals of low lake level during the Holocene. They are also consistent with regional-scale COHMAP simulated palaeoclimate that shows contrasting patterns of rainfall variation between the northwesternmost part of Africa and the intertropical band. Received: 7 July 1997 / Accepted: 28 May 1998     

A model for tectonic rotations about a vertical axis

The rotation of a rigid ellipsoidal inclusion within a highly viscous fluid, orientated so that two of the principal axes remain horizontal, is used as a model for the rotation of crustal inclusions in wide zones of continental deformation. This model is also applicable to other geological problems involving the rotation of inclusions in a matrix. The pattern of behaviour in such a model is shown to be complex. In general the rotation rate of the inclusion is a function of all components of the velocity field of the deforming medium and the horizontal aspect ratio of the inclusion. However, for a given velocity field, this aspect ratio must exceed a critical value before the inclusion can rotate continuously. Inclusions with lower aspect ratios will rotate, for a certain range of orientations, in an opposite direction to the sense of shear in the deforming zone. The possibility of the inclusion changing shape during rotation adds to the complexity of behaviour.     

Phase relations in the CH4-H2O-NaCl system at 2 kbar, 300 to 600°C as determined using synthetic fluid inclusions

Synthesis of fluid inclusions in the CH₄-H₂O-NaCl system was accomplished by subjecting fractured quartz or fluorite, along with known quantities of CH₄, H₂O, and NaCl, to a pressure of 2 kbar and temperatures of 300, 400, 500, or 600°C, in sealed Au capsules. Under the elevated P-T conditions, some of the fractures healed, trapping fluids as inclusions. Microthermometric measurements conducted on the fluid inclusions show that at 2 kbar and 400 to 600°C, there are very broad regions of fluid unmixing in the CH₄-H₂O-NaCl system. For those bulk fluid compositions that lie in the two-phase (i.e., immiscible fluids) field, the high-density phase is enriched in NaCl, whereas the low-density phase is enriched in CH₄. For any given bulk composition, the degree of NaCl enrichment in the high-density phase increases, whereas the degree of CH₄ enrichment in the low-density phase decreases, as temperature increases from 400 to 600°C. Our experimental constraints on the size of the two-phase field are generally consistent with results generated using the equation-of-state GEOFLUIDS (available at http://geotherm.ucsd.edu/geofluids/). However, when comparing the compositions of coexisting immiscible fluids, as determined experimentally vs. calculated using GEOFLUIDS, we find that some relatively small but probably significant differences exist between our experiments and this equation of state.     

Bulk organic δC and C/N as indicators for sediment sources in the Pearl River delta and estuary,southern China

Preservation of organic matter in estuarine and coastal areas is an important process in the global carbon cycle. This paper presents bulk δ¹³C and C/N of organic matter from source to sink in the Pearl River catchment, delta and estuary, and discusses the applicability of δ¹³C and C/N as indicators for sources of organic matter in deltaic and estuarine sediments. In addition to the 91 surface sediment samples, other materials collected in this study cover the main sources of organic material to estuarine sediment. These are: terrestrial organic matter (TOM), including plants and soil samples from the catchment; estuarine and marine suspended particulate organic carbon (POC) from both summer and winter. Results show that the average δ¹³C of estuarine surface sediment increases from −25.0 ± 1.3‰ in the freshwater environment to −21.0 ± 0.2‰ in the marine environment, with C/N decreasing from 15.2 ± 3.3 to 6.8 ± 0.2. In the source areas, C₃ plants have lower δ¹³C than C₄ plants (−29.0 ± 1.8‰ and −13.1 ± 0.5‰ respectively). δ¹³C increases from −28.3 ± 0.8‰ in the forest soil to around −24.1‰ in both riverbank soil and mangrove soil due to increasing proportion of C₄ grasses. The δ¹³C_POC increases from −27.6 ± 0.8‰ in the freshwater areas to −22.4 ± 0.5‰ in the marine-brackish-water areas in winter, and ranges between −24.0‰ in freshwater areas and −25.4‰ in brackish-water areas in summer. Comparison of the δ¹³C and C/N between the sources and sink indicates a weakening TOM and freshwater POC input in the surface sedimentary organic matter seawards, and a strengthening contribution from the marine organic matter. Thus we suggest that bulk organic δ¹³C and C/N analysis can be used to indicate sources of sedimentary organic matter in estuarine environments. Organic carbon in surface sediments derived from anthropogenic sources such as human waste and organic pollutants from industrial and agricultural activities accounts for less than 10% of the total organic carbon (TOC). Although results also indicate elevated δ¹³C of sedimentary organic matter due to some agricultural products such as sugarcane, C₃ plants are still the dominant vegetation type in this area, and the bulk organic δ¹³C and C/N is still an effective indicator for sources of organic matter in estuarine sediments.     

The oxidation states of copper and iron in mineral sulfides, and the oxides formed on initial exposure of chalcopyrite and bornite to air

Metal L_2,3, sulfur K and oxygen K near-edge X-ray absorption fine structure (NEXAFS) spectra for chalcopyrite, bornite, chalcocite, covellite, pyrrhotite and pyrite have been determined from single-piece natural mineral specimens in order to assess claims that chalcopyrite should be regarded as Cu^IIFe^IIS₂ rather than Cu^IFe^IIIS₂, and that copper oxide species are the principal initial oxidation products on chalcopyrite and bornite exposed to air. Spectra were obtained using both fluorescence and electron yields to obtain information representative of the bulk as well as the surface. Where appropriate, NEXAFS spectra have been interpreted by comparison with the densities of unfilled states and simulated spectra derived from ab initio calculations using primarily the FEFF8 code and to a lesser extent WIEN2k. Metal 2p and S 2p photoelectron spectra excited by monochromatised Al K_α X-rays were determined for each of the surfaces characterised by NEXAFS spectroscopy. The X-ray excited Cu LMM Auger spectrum was also determined for each copper-containing sulfide. FEFF8 calculations were able to simulate the experimental NEXAFS spectra quite well in most cases. For covellite and chalcocite, it was found that FEFF8 did not provide a good simulation of the Cu L₃-edge spectra, but WIEN2k simulations were in close agreement with the experimental spectra. Largely on the basis of these simulations, it was concluded that there was no convincing evidence for chalcopyrite to be represented as Cu^IIFe^IIS₂, and no strong argument for some of the Cu in either bornite or covellite to be regarded as Cu(II). The ab initio calculations for chalcopyrite and bornite indicated that the density of Cu d-states immediately above the Fermi level was sufficient to account for the Cu L₃-edge absorption spectrum, however these incompletely filled Cu d-states should not be interpreted as indicating some Cu(II) in the sulfide structure. It was also concluded that the X-ray absorption spectra were quite consistent with the initial oxidation products on chalcopyrite and bornite surfaces being iron oxide species, and inconsistent with the concomitant formation of copper-oxygen species.     

Line formation in magnetic fields

Hyder (1968) has suggested that longitudinal magnetograph measurements of weak magnetic fields in prominences have underestimated field strengths as the result of zero-field levelcrossing interference (the Hanle effect). Hyder (1968) also suggested that resonance polarization effects have sometimes led to errors in measurements of the transverse component of magnetic fields. Stenflo (1969) has pointed out some errors in Hyder's paper, while contending that the Hanle effect is implicitly included in current theories of line formation in the presence of Zeeman splitting.In the present Note these questions are re-examined using the results of a density matrix treatment of absorption, emission, and scattering processes. The basic conclusions are as follows: (1) Longitudinal magnetograph measurements using optically thin lines are not influenced by the Hanle effect. (2) Although present theories of line formation in magnetic fields do not include the Hanle effect, this omission is generally unimportant for lines formed in the photosphere and lower chromosphere due to rapid collisional depolarization of atomic levels. (3) For the same reason, other resonance polarization effects are probably too small to cause significant errors in magnetograph measurements of all but the very weakest magnetic fields, when photospheric and lower chromospheric lines are used. (4) By contrast, the general phenomenon of atomic level polarization is quite important in most prominences. As emphasized by Hyder, extreme care must be used in selecting lines for magnetograph studies of solar magnetic fields.     

The Discovery of a Second Field Methane Brown Dwarf from Sloan Digital Sky Survey Commissioning Data

We report the discovery of a second field methane brown dwarf from the commissioning data of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). The object, SDSS J134646.45-003150.4 (hereafter SDSS 1346-00), was selected because of its very red color and stellar appearance. Its spectrum between 0.8 and 2.5 μm is dominated by strong absorption bands of H2O and CH4 and closely mimics those of Gliese 229B and SDSS 162414.37+002915.6 (hereafter SDSS 1624+00), two other known methane brown dwarfs. SDSS 1346-00 is approximately 1.5 mag fainter than Gliese 229B, suggesting that it lies about 11 pc from the Sun. The ratio of flux at 2.1 μm to that at 1.27 μm is larger for SDSS 1346-00 than for Gliese 229B and SDSS 1624+00, which suggests that SDSS 1346-00 has a slightly higher effective temperature than the others. Based on a search area of 130 deg2 and a detection limit of z*=19.8, we estimate a space density of 0.05 pc-3 for methane brown dwarfs with Teff approximately 1000 K in the 40 pc3 volume of our search. This estimate is based on small-sample statistics and should be treated with appropriate caution.