Identification of physical processes inherent in artificial neural network rainfall runoff models

The emergence of artificial neural network (ANN) technology has provided many promising results in the field of hydrology and water resources simulation. However, one of the major criticisms of ANN hydrologic models is that they do not consider/explain the underlying physical processes in a watershed, resulting in them being labelled as black‐box models. This paper discusses a research study conducted in order to examine whether or not the physical processes in a watershed are inherent in a trained ANN rainfall‐runoff model. The investigation is based on analysing definite statistical measures of strength of relationship between the disintegrated hidden neuron responses of an ANN model and its input variables, as well as various deterministic components of a conceptual rainfall‐runoff model. The approach is illustrated by presenting a case study for the Kentucky River watershed. The results suggest that the distributed structure of the ANN is able to capture certain physical behaviour of the rainfall‐runoff process. The results demonstrate that the hidden neurons in the ANN rainfall‐runoff model approximate various components of the hydrologic system, such as infiltration, base flow, and delayed and quick surface flow, etc., and represent the rising limb and different portions of the falling limb of a flow hydrograph. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dissolution and depletion of ferromagnesian minerals from Holocene tephra layers in an acid bog,New Zealand,and implications for tephra correlation

This study examines the depletion of ferromagnesian silicate minerals from a sequence of thin, distal, mainly rhyolitic tephra layers of Holocene age preserved in an acid peat bog (Kopouatai), North Island, New Zealand. The rate of such depletion has been fast, as indicated by the complete loss of biotite from one tephra layer (Kaharoa Tephra), in which it is normally dominant, in only ca. 770 yr. Chemical dissolution is advocated as the likely cause for the depletion, with amphiboles and other mineral grains commonly showing etch pits, microcaves, and other characteristic surface solution features. Theoretical thermodynamic and kinetic models show a marked increase in the rate of dissolution of all ferromagnesian minerals under conditions of low pH (< 4), but that where silica concentrations in solution are high the relative proportions of minerals remaining are unaffected. However, where concentrations of dissolved silica are low, as in most bog environments, the relative proportions of ferromagnesian minerals are affected as well as absolute amounts being decreased. Amphiboles are depleted relative to pyroxenes, consistent with kinetic studies. The results show that the identification and correlation of tephras on the basis of relative abundances of ferromagnesian minerals alone may be unreliable, and emphasise the need to use multiple criteria in such studies.     

Response of circular footings and anchor plates in non-homogeneous elastic soils

The axisymmetric elastic response of circular footings and anchor plates in a linearly non-homogeneous elastic soil is analysed. It is assumed that footings/anchors are flexible and subjected to axisymmetric vertical loads. The response of the footing/anchor is modelled by using the classical Poisson–Kirchhoff thin plate theory. A variational technique is used to analyse the interaction problem. A representation for the contact stress is established by using a fundamental solution corresponding to a unit vertical pressure acting over an annular region in the interior of the non-homogeneous soil. The fundamental solution can be derived by using rigorous analytical procedures. The influence of the footing flexibility and the degree of soil non-homogeneity on the displacements, bending moments and contact stresses of a surface footing is examined over a wide range of governing parameters. In the case of anchor plates the influence of depth of embedment, degree of soil non-homogeneity and anchor flexibility on the anchor displacement is investigated.     

Small angle neutron scattering by opals

Micro- and non-crystalline opals, chalcedony and flint show diffuse small angle neutron scattering (SANS). Precious opals give rise to two additional intensity maxima at very small scattering angles which are due to Bragg reflections from the closest packed non-crystalline silica spheres. A small angle texture diagram reveals that the closest packing is faulty. Synthetic non-crystalline opals yield much less intense small angle scattering due to lower contrast between silica spheres and interstitial cement or particles; in this case intensity maxima were not observed. The outer part of the scattering curves of opal-CT and microcrystalline quartz deviates from Porod's law. The specific surface of natural non-crystalline opals ranges from 0.006 to 0.018 nm^–1. In microcrystalline opals, the specific surface is about 10 times larger than in non-crystalline opals.     

Comparison of results from several AOGCMs for global and regional sea-level change 1900–2100

 Sea-level rise is an important aspect of climate change because of its impact on society and ecosystems. Here we present an intercomparison of results from ten coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for sea-level changes simulated for the twentieth century and projected to occur during the twenty first century in experiments following scenario IS92a for greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The model results suggest that the rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion of sea water has increased during the twentieth century, but the small set of tide gauges with long records might not be adequate to detect this acceleration. The rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion continues to increase throughout the twenty first century, and the projected total is consequently larger than in the twentieth century; for 1990–2090 it amounts to 0.20–0.37 m. This wide range results from systematic uncertainty in modelling of climate change and of heat uptake by the ocean. The AOGCMs agree that sea-level rise is expected to be geographically non-uniform, with some regions experiencing as much as twice the global average, and others practically zero, but they do not agree about the geographical pattern. The lack of agreement indicates that we cannot currently have confidence in projections of local sea-level changes, and reveals a need for detailed analysis and intercomparison in order to understand and reduce the disagreements. Received: 1 September 2000 / Accepted: 20 April 2001     

Grain boundary diffusion in enstatite

We have investigated grain boundary diffusion rates in enstatite by heating single crystals of quartz packed in powdered San Carlos olivine (Mg_0.90Fe_0.10)₂SiO₄ at controlled oxygen fugacities in the range 10^?5.7 to 10^?8.7?atm and temperatures from 1350° to 1450?°C for times from 5 to 100?h at 1?atm total pressure. Following the experiments, the thickness of the coherent polycrystalline reaction rim of pyroxene that had formed between the quartz and olivine was measured using backscatter scanning imaging in the electron microprobe. Quantitative microprobe analysis indicated that the composition of this reaction phase is (Mg_0.92Fe_0.08)₂Si₂O₆. The rate of growth of the pyroxene increases with increasing temperature, is independent of the oxygen fugacity, and is consistent with a parabolic rate law, indicating that the growth rate is controlled by ionic diffusion through the pyroxene rim. Microstructural observations and platinum marker experiments suggest that the reaction phase is formed at the olivine-pyroxene interface, and is therefore controlled by the diffusion of silicon and oxygen. The parabolic rate constants determined from the experiments were analyzed in terms of the oxide activity gradient across the rim to yield mean effective diffusivities for the rate-limiting ionic species, assuming bulk transport through the pyroxene layer. These effective diffusivities are faster than the lattice diffusivities for the slowest species (silicon) calculated from creep experiments, but slower than measured lattice diffusivities for oxygen in enstatite. Thus, silicon grain boundary diffusion is most likely to be the rate-limiting process in the growth of the pyroxene rims. Also, as oxygen transport through the pyroxene rims must be faster than silicon transport, diffusion of oxygen along the grain boundaries must be faster than through the lattice. The grain boundary diffusivity for silicon in orthopyroxenite is then given by D¯gbSiδ=(3.3±3.0)×10^?9f0.0O₂e^?400±65/RT?m³s^?1, where the activation energy for diffusion is in kJ/mol, and δ is the grain boundary width in m. Calculated growth rates for enstatite under these conditions are significantly slower than predicted by an extrapolation from similar experiments performed at 1000?°C under high pressure (hydrous) conditions by Yund and Tullis (1992), perhaps due to water-enhancement of diffusion in their experiments.     

Geophysical investigations over a segment of the Central Indian Ridge, Indian Ocean

 Swath bathymetric, gravity, and magnetic studies were carried out over a 55 km long segment of the Central Indian Ridge. The ridge is characterized by 12 to 15 km wide rift valley bounded by steep walls and prominent volcanic constructional ridges on either side of the central rift valley. A transform fault at 7°45′S displaces the ridge axis. A mantle Bouguer anomaly low of −14 mGals and shallowing of rift valley over the middle of the ridge segment indicate along axis crustal thickness variations. A poorly developed neovolcanic zone on the inner rift valley floor indicate dominance of tectonic extension. The off-axis volcanic ridgs suggest enhanced magmatic activity during the recent past. Received: 24 May 1996 / Rivision received: 13 January 1997     

Metamorphic evolution of exhumed middle to lower crustal rocks in the Mojave Extensional Belt, southern California, USA

The Waterman Metamorphic Complex of the central Mojave Desert was exposed as a consequence of early Miocene detachment-dominated extension. However, it has evidence consistent with a more extensive geological history that involves collision of a crustal fragment(s), tectonic thickening by overthrusting and two periods of extension. The metamorphic complex contains granitoid intrusives and felsic mylonitic gneisses as well as polymetamorphic rocks that include marble, calc-silicate, quartzite. mafic granulite, pyribolite, amphibolite, migmatite and biotite schist. The latter group of rocks was affected by an initial series of high-grade metamorphic events (M1 and M2) and a localized lower grade overprint (M3). The initial metamorphism (M1) can be separated into two stages along its high-grade P–T path: M1a, a granulite facies metamorphism at 800–850° C and 7.5–9 kbar and Mlb, an upper amphibolite facies overprint at 750–800° C and 10–12 kbar. M1a developed mineral assemblages and textures consistent with granulite facies conditions at a reduced activity of H₂O and is associated with intense ductile deformation (D1) and minor local partial melting. M1b overprinted the granulite assemblages with a series of hydrous phases under conditions of increasing pressure and H₂O activity and is accompanied by little or no deformation. M2 developed at lower pressures and temperatures (650–750° C, 4.5–5.5 kbar) and is distinguished by a second local overprint of hydrous phases that reflects an input of aqueous fluids probably associated with the intrusion of a series of granitic dykes and veins. Effects of M3 are confined to the Mitchel detachment zone, an anastomosing early Miocene detachment fault, and are characterized by local ductile/brittle deformation (D2) of the pre-existing high-grade rocks and granitoid intrusives and by the production of mylonites and mylonitic gneisses under greenschist facies conditions (300–350° C, 3–5 kbar). The initial overprint (M1a) represents metamorphism, devolatilization and minor partial melting of supracrustal rocks under granulite facies conditions as a consequence of tectonic and, possibly, magmatic thickening. The increasing pressure transition of M1a to M1b reflects a period of continued compressional tectonism, thrusting and influx of H₂O, in part, locally related to crystallization of partial melts. The near isothermal decompression between M1b and M2 probably represents a pre-112-Ma extensional episode that may have been the result of a decompressional readjustment of a thickened crust. Following the initial extensional event, the metamorphic complex remained at depths of 10–17 km for at least 90 Ma until it was uplifted following Miocene extension. M3 develops locally in response to this second extensional period resulting from the early Miocene detachment faulting.     

Recurrent Red-tides in the Southampton Water Estuary Caused by the Phototrophic CiliateMesodinium rubrum

In the Southampton Water estuary (southern England, U.K.), red-tides caused by the planktonic, phototrophic ciliateMesodinium rubrum(=Myrionecta rubra) occur during most summers and sometimes in autumn. These events were investigated in detail between 1985 and 1987 and were characterized by levels of chlorophylla(chl a) of over 100 μg l⁻¹, cell numbers ofM. rubrumof over 1×10³ ml⁻¹, oxygen saturations of around 150%, and depleted numbers of macrozooplankton. Initiation of red-water did not appear to be triggered by irradiance or nutrients, but coincided with an increase in temperature and water column stability. This enhanced stability was promoted by increased surface to bottom gradients of both temperature and salinity, and by reduced mixing during neap tides. Development of red-water was accompanied by removal of most of the dissolved NH⁺₄from the water column, whereas some NO⁻₃persisted, presumably maintained by freshwater input. NO⁻₃and NH⁺₄gradually returned to pre-bloom concentrations as the red-water declined in late summer. Maximal biomass ofM. rubrumappeared to be limited by irradiance, and self-shading probably imposed an upper limit of around 300 mg chl a m⁻²within the water column. At the observed levels of chl a, irradiance values within the population maximum between 1 and 3 m depth were only just of the order (≈15 μmol photons m⁻² s⁻¹) required to balance estimated respiratory demands. Oxygen concentration became undersaturated during the late bloom phase, with minimal values of 20–30% saturation recorded in deeper waters; however, despite this and reduced numbers of macrozooplankton, direct deleterious effects on other organisms were not observed.