A Model of Magmatic Crystallization

A computer model simulating fractional crystallization at oneatmosphere pressure incorporates nine broadly-defined minerals—magnetite,olivine, hypersthene, augite, quartz, plagioclase, orthoclase,leucite, and nepheline. The crystallization temperature of eachmineral is considered to be a smooth function of the compositionof the magmatic liquid. These mineral temperature equationsare obtained by multiple linear regression analysis of informationfrom published silicate systems and rock melting experiments.The nine equations are solved for any primary liquid, withinthe broad range of common magma types, to select the crystallizingmineral or minerals. Partition ratios from published experimentsand analyses of lavas and phenocrysts permit calculation ofthe composition of the crystallizing mineral assemblage. Subtractionof a small amount of that composition from the primary liquidyields a new liquid, which may be recycled to yield a sequenceof liquids during fractional crystallization. The crystallizationmodel handles assemblages of co-precipitating minerals, andcan trace progressive saturation in new minerals, substitutionof a new mineral for an old mineral, and cessation of crystallizationof a mineral. The sequences of minerals and liquids derivedfrom a broad set of primary liquids are geologically realistic,so the model is useful in predicting phenocrysts in volcanicrocks and events during crystallization of shallow intrusions.     

Risk Assessment and Disaster Management for Natural and Anthropogenically Induced Geologic Hazards: Application to the Preolkhon Region,Western Lake Baikal,Siberia, Russia

In the Western Lake Baikal, recent Baikal Rift's tectonics control the topography, seismicity, climate, geomorphology, and economy. Scarps, facets, structural terraces, horsts and grabens, and trapezoid valleys can be clearly observed. They have been generated by the recent tectonic movements along the faults and represent a serious geologic hazard. The specific geological conditions predetermine a unique variety of landscapes. Thus, the main type of the economy is tourism. However, unorganized tourism leads to the degradation of the unique landscapes. It increases risk and requires disaster management. Three criteria has been used for risk assessment: (1) degree of geologic hazard; (2) degree of landscape degradation; and (3) degree of the economy's vitality. The high ecological significance and low stability to antropogeneous pressure are typical for landscapes of the Western Lake Baikal. Thus, some special activities of disaster management should be implemented based on our investigation.     

A 2D finite volume model for bebris flow and its application to events occurred in the Eastern Pyrenees

FLATModel is a 2D finite volume code that contains several original approaches to improve debris-flow simulation. Firstly, FLATModel incorporates a ＂stop-and-go＂ technique in each cell to allow continuous collapses and remobilizations of the debris-flow mass. Secondly, flow velocity and consequently yield stress is directly associated with the type of rheology to improve boundary accuracy. Thirdly, a simple approach for entrainment is also included in the model to analyse the effect of basal erosion of debris flows. FLATMODEL was tested at several events that occurred in the Eastern Pyrenees and simulation results indicated that the model can represent rather well the different characteristics observed in the field.     

Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the CMIP5 ensemble

Twenty-year temperature and precipitation extremes and their projected future changes are evaluated in an ensemble of climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), updating a similar study based on the CMIP3 ensemble. The projected changes are documented for three radiative forcing scenarios. The performance of the CMIP5 models in simulating 20-year temperature and precipitation extremes is comparable to that of the CMIP3 ensemble. The models simulate late 20th century warm extremes reasonably well, compared to estimates from reanalyses. The model discrepancies in simulating cold extremes are generally larger than those for warm extremes. Simulated late 20th century precipitation extremes are plausible in the extratropics but uncertainty in extreme precipitation in the tropics and subtropics remains very large, both in the models and the observationally-constrained datasets. Consistent with CMIP3 results, CMIP5 cold extremes generally warm faster than warm extremes, mainly in regions where snow and sea-ice retreat with global warming. There are tropical and subtropical regions where warming rates of warm extremes exceed those of cold extremes. Relative changes in the intensity of precipitation extremes generally exceed relative changes in annual mean precipitation. The corresponding waiting times for late 20th century extreme precipitation events are reduced almost everywhere, except for a few subtropical regions. The CMIP5 planetary sensitivity in extreme precipitation is about 6 %/°C, with generally lower values over extratropical land.     

Diurnal variation of deep cloud systems over the Indian region using INSAT-1B pixel data

Summary Among the various time scales of deep clouds, diurnal variation is found to be prominent over the tropics. The present study examines the diurnal variation in the number and area cover associated with the cloud systems over the tropical Indian region using INSAT-1B pixel data. Three periods, namely, April–May 1988, July–August 1988, and January–February 1989 are considered. The dependence of diurnal characteristics on the temperature threshold, life duration and size of cloud systems, and land-sea contrast has been explored. The diurnal characteristics of cloud systems living for more than a day have been studied for the first time. It is shown that cloud systems exhibit strong diurnal dependence at the coldest temperature threshold used (201 K). Also, the diurnal variation is more for larger cloud systems and for longer living systems. In general, more deep cloud activity is found from the satellite data during the pre-dawn and early morning hours. Precipitation is enhanced during morning to early noon hours. Further, using data from a recent field experiment, clear evidence of diurnal variation in precipitation over the Bay of Bengal is also presented. Received March 20, 2000/Revised October 3, 2000     

Polarized Radiation in Relativistic Cosmology

A method to solve the general-relativistic equation of radiative transfer for polarized light incorporating elastic COMPTON scattering is discussed. The method is based on an expansion in spin-o and spin-2 spherical harmonics.     

Simulation Study on High Energy Cosmic Electron Detection by Shower Image

Many projects have recently been carried out and proposed for observing high energy electrons since it is realized that cosmic ray electrons are very important when study-ing the dark matter particles and the acceleration mechanism of cosmic rays. An imaging calorimeter,BETS (Balloon-borne Electron Telescope with Scintillator fiber),has been de-veloped for this purpose. Using pattern analysis of the shower development,the electrons can be selected from those primary cosmic ray proton events with flux heights one-tenth that of the electrons. The Monte-Carlo simulation is indispensable for the instrument design,the sig-nal trigger and the data analysis. We present different shower simulation codes and compare the simulation results with the beam test and the flight data of BETS. We conclude that the code FLUKA2002 gives the most consistent results with the experimental data.     

A new semi-quantitative Surface-Enhanced Raman Spectroscopy (SERS) method for detection of maleimide (2,5-pyrroledione) with potential application to astrobiology

Nitrogen-containing heterocyclic compounds are fundamental biochemical components of all life on Earth and, presumably, life elsewhere in our solar system. Dete...     

Measures of Parameter Uncertainty in Geostatistical Estimation and Geostatistical Optimal Design

Studies of site exploration, data assimilation, or geostatistical inversion measure parameter uncertainty in order to assess the optimality of a suggested scheme. This study reviews and discusses measures for parameter uncertainty in spatial estimation. Most measures originate from alphabetic criteria in optimal design and were transferred to geostatistical estimation. Further rather intuitive measures can be found in the geostatistical literature, and some new measures will be suggested in this study. It is shown how these measures relate to the optimality alphabet and to relative entropy. Issues of physical and statistical significance are addressed whenever they arise. Computational feasibility and efficient ways to evaluate the above measures are discussed in this paper, and an illustrative synthetic case study is provided. A major conclusion is that the mean estimation variance and the averaged conditional integral scale are a powerful duo for characterizing conditional parameter uncertainty, with direct correspondence to the well-understood optimality alphabet. This study is based on cokriging generalized to uncertain mean and trends because it is the most general representative of linear spatial estimation within the Bayesian framework. Generalization to kriging and quasi-linear schemes is straightforward. Options for application to non-Gaussian and non-linear problems are discussed.