张掖盆地水文地质特征与稳定同位素研究

论述了张掖盆地地下水赋存分布特征与地下水补给、径流、排泄条件,利用水化学、同位素调查的方法,重点对张掖甘州平原区地下水水化学类型及其演化过程进行了研究。结果表明：张掖盆地由源于南部祁连山和北部龙首山的水系沉积物组成,其冲洪积平原规模、含水层富水性、导水性与地下水水化学特征等方面存在差异;同时地下水稳定同住素特征分析印证了水文地质条件的差异。祁连山前沉积物与龙首山前沉积物中地下水有着不同的补给来源和径流路径。浅层地下水和龙首山前深层承压水主要补给源为大气降水和山区河流入渗补给,祁连山前深层承压地下水系统可能有冰雪融水补给。     

Study on polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons（PAHs） contents and sources in the surface so~l or l-lmznou City, South China, based on multivariate statistics analysis

Studies of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the surface soil were conducted in Huizhou City, which is located in the Pearl River Delta, South China. Sixteen PAHs in 42 soil samples were detected. The results showed that 4 components of PAHs were detectable in all soil samples, and other 12 components were also detectable to some extent. The total PAHs contents range from 35.40 to 534.5 μg/kg with the mean value of 123.09 μg/kg. Soil in Huizhou was slightly polluted by PAHs according to Maliszewska-Kordybach’s study. It can be confirmed that the increase of PAHs contents in the surface soil of Huizhou City is closely connected to human activities. Multivariate analysis was also made in this study. Principal component analysis was used to constrain their origins, and 3 principal components (PCs) were extracted. The results showed that coal combustion and oil spilling made the major contributions to PAHs. Cluster analysis was made and 16 priority PAHs were classified as 4 sorts, and the result revealed the differences in environmental behavior, chemical properties and sources of PAHs.     

基于agent的两区域旅游系统非均衡动态模拟

建立中国沿海与内陆两区域旅游系统模型,在空间经济学演绎模型的基础上,通过基于agent建模(agent-based modeling)的计算实验方法,探讨市场需求、区域间和区域内旅游产品的替代弹性、固定成本投入以及区位和交通条件等影响因素对区域旅游系统演化的非均衡动态过程。模拟表明,旅游往往集聚在具有区位优势、规模经济和消费能力的沿海地区,而交通条件的持续改善、沿海与内陆区域间以及区域内部旅游产品和服务的持续差异化将有助于加快中国内陆地区旅游产业的空间集聚过程,并且收入水平越高、外部需求越大对区域旅游系统的动态影响越大。     

基于全球通道与本地蜂鸣的张江IC产业集群演化

产业集群演化是全球通道和本地蜂鸣共同作用的结果.在产业集群不同发展阶段,其全球通道和本地蜂鸣的作用方式和效果并不相同.通过调研访谈张江高科技园区集成电路企业及相关机构,分析了产业集群的不同阶段特征和发展轨迹,发现产业集群主要驱动因素由全球通道向本地蜂鸣转变、产业集群由外生向内生演变的发展轨迹.在产业集群孕育期,跨国公司入驻具有决定性作用.在产业集群形成期,跨国公司全球生产网络和跨国技术社区是与外界联系的两种全球通道,也是产业集群发展的关键所在.在产业集群成熟期,全球通道的作用相对下降,本地蜂鸣、创新环境和区域品牌等内生因素作用凸显.为了防止产业集群锁定和衰退,当地政府管理部门需要同时注重本地蜂鸣和全球通道建设.     

A new methodology for measuring coastline recession using buffering and non‐linear least squares estimation

Coastline recession is one of the best indicators of coastal erosion. Three methods for computing coastline recession – the baseline approach, the dynamic segmentation approach and the area‐based approach – have been used, each of which has one or more drawbacks. To overcome these problems, a new methodology for measuring coastline recession is proposed, using buffering and non‐linear least squares estimation. The proposed method was compared with the three existing methods with respect to two simulated cases and two real coastlines. Test results confirmed that the new method is more reliable than the three other methods, all of which are susceptible to variability of recession, scale, number of line segments, length of coastlines and direction of the baseline. The proposed method, incorporating two physically meaningful values – magnitude and variability of coastline recession according to the mean and standard deviation of coastline offsets, respectively – presents itself as an effective alternative method of assessing coastline recession.     

The temporal hierarchy of shelters: a hierarchical location model for earthquake-shelter planning

The problem of emergency facility location is a critical component in evacuation planning. The emergence of geographic information systems (GIS) has provided a useful operational platform to assist this issue. A previously overlooked facet is the consideration of a hierarchical structure in the placement of emergency shelters. Due to the fact that survivors' needs change over time during post-disaster evacuations, shelters have now been categorized on a temporal scale based on their functions at different evacuation phases. This article proposes a three-level hierarchical location model for optimizing the placement of earthquake shelters by taking into account this temporal variance. The article not only scrutinizes the modeling procedure but also implements the model in a planning area with many real-world details. Based on the optimization results derived from a GIS context, we have found that the quality of the earthquake response procedure is not only dependent on the placement strategy of shelters, but more importantly on the financial constraints imposed on the planning and construction of these shelters. A discussion has been proposed to balance the trade-off between budget planning and evacuation efficiency. As the first attempt to model the hierarchical configuration of emergency shelters with specific focus on evacuees' escalating sheltering demands, this article will be of great significance in helping policy makers consider both the spatial and financial aspects of the strategic placement of emergency shelters.     

基于序列参数的水库地震类型综合判定研究

收集整理了我国大陆东部地区44 组水库地震序列,其中震群型32 组,主余型和孤立型12 组。分别计算了44 组序列的h 值、b 值、归一化熵值K、能量均匀度U、地震发生方式参数ρ 等5 个序列参数。在95% 的置信水平下,对每一参数分震群型、主余型加孤立型两大类进行差异性检验。结果表明,h、U、ρ 值对水库地震序列类型的分类能力不强;b 值平均值虽存在一定差异,但数值分布范围有部分重叠;K 值差异性显著,K = 0. 35 可作为区分震群型与主余型加孤立型两类水库地震序列的判别指标。在此基础上,建立以上述5 个参数为自变量的Fisher 判别函数,用于序列类型的综合判定。结果显示,所有数据全部参与建立判别函数并进行回溯性内符判别检验,识别正确率为97. 6% ;利用32 组序列参数参与判别函数建立,另外10 组进行外推检验,识别正确率为100% ,表明上述综合判别方法具有较高的水库地震序列分类能力。     

2013 年3 月27 日台湾南投MW 6. 0 地震震源机制解与发震构造研究

采用基于近远震波形的CAPjoint 方法,对2013 年3 月27 日台湾南投MW6. 0 地震分别进行了单独反演和联合反演,获得了各自的震源机制解及震源深度。其中,联合反演所得的最优双力偶机制解参数为,节面Ⅰ:方位角0°,倾角30°,滑动角78°;节面Ⅱ:方位角193°,倾角60°,滑动角96°;震源深度18km。为了验证联合反演的有效性和可靠性,采用由重抽样理论发展而来的Bootstrap 方法,对近远震数据分别进行了重采样,并对其单独反演和联合反演所得的参数进行了统计,验证了联合反演的有效性及稳定性,并发现远震反演震源深度的结果一定程度上受台站分布的影响,若要获得精确的震源深度则需要方位角分布较好的远震台站记录。根据前人对集集地震及车笼埔断层的研究成果以及南投地震的发震断层性质接近车笼埔断层的认识,推测此次地震可能发生在车笼埔断层上。     

Earthquake magnitude estimation using the τc and Pd method for earthquake early warning systems

Earthquake early warning （EEW） systems are one of the most effective ways to reduce earthquake disaster. Earthquake magnitude estimation is one of the most important and also the most difficult parts of the entire EEW system. In this paper, based on 142 earthquake events and 253 seismic records that were recorded by the KiK-net in Japan, and aftershocks of the large Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan, we obtained earthquake magnitude estimation relationships using the τe and Pa methods. The standard variances of magnitude calculation of these two formulas are ±0.65 and ±0.56, respectively. The Pd value can also be used to estimate the peak ground motion of velocity, then warning information can be released to the public rapidly, according to the estimation results. In order to insure the stability and reliability of magnitude estimation results, we propose a compatibility test according to the natures of these two parameters. The reliability of the early warning information is significantly improved though this test.     

基于COSMIC掩星数据分析中低纬度地区电子密度分布变化

利用COSMIC掩星2009年电子密度剖面数据,筛选数据进行网格划分,网格内数据统计平均,基于球谐函数计算模型值,分析电离层中低纬度地区最大电子密度的地磁季节变化、昼夜测分布相对变化,及地磁活动对电子密度的分布影响.结果表明,最大电子密度昼测值明显高于夜测值,在中纬度部分区域增大明显.电子密度昼测值在地磁活动期间高度150-550 km中低纬度范围为正相扰动,随纬度变化存在区域差异,随高度增加,扰动加强.