Global high resolution versus Limited Area Model climate change projections over Europe: quantifying confidence level from PRUDENCE results

Four high resolution atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) have been integrated with the standard forcings of the PRUDENCE experiment: IPCC-SRES A2 radiative forcing and Hadley Centre sea surface temperature and sea-ice extent. The response over Europe, calculated as the difference between the 2071–2100 and the 1961–1990 means is compared with the same diagnostic obtained with nine Regional Climate Models (RCM) all driven by the Hadley Centre atmospheric GCM. The seasonal mean response for 2m temperature and precipitation is investigated. For temperature, GCMs and RCMs behave similarly, except that GCMs exhibit a larger spread. However, during summer, the spread of the RCMs—in particular in terms of precipitation—is larger than that of the GCMs. This indicates that the European summer climate is strongly controlled by parameterized physics and/or high-resolution processes. The temperature response is larger than the systematic error. The situation is different for precipitation. The model bias is twice as large as the climate response. The confidence in PRUDENCE results comes from the fact that the models have a similar response to the IPCC-SRES A2 forcing, whereas their systematic errors are more spread. In addition, GCM precipitation response is slightly but significantly different from that of the RCMs.     

The influence of 70 and 120 kHz tonal signals on the behavior of harbor porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) in a floating pen

Two harbor porpoises in a floating pen were subjected to five pure tone underwater signals of 70 or 120kHz with different signal durations, amplitudes and duty cycles (% of time sound is produced). Some signals were continuous, others were intermittent (duty cycles varied between 8% and 100%). The effect of each signal was judged by comparing the animals' surfacing locations and number of surfacings (i.e. number of respirations) during test periods with those during baseline periods. In all cases, both porpoises moved away from the sound source, but the effect of the signals on respiration rates was negligible. Pulsed 70kHz signals with a source level (SL) of 137dB had a similar effect as a continuous 70kHz signal with an SL of 148dB (re 1muPa, rms). Also, a pulsed 70kHz signal with an SL of 147dB had a much stronger deterring effect than a continuous 70kHz signal with a similar SL. For pulsed 70kHz signals (2s pulse duration, 4s pulse interval, SL 147dB re 1muPa, rms), the avoidance threshold sound pressure level (SPL), in the context of the present study, was estimated to be around 130dB (re 1muPa, rms) for porpoise 064 and around 124dB (re 1muPa, rms) for porpoise 047. This study shows that ultrasonic pingers (70kHz) can deter harbor porpoises. Such ultrasonic pingers have the advantage that they do not have a "dinner bell" effect on pinnipeds, and probably have no, or less, effect on other marine fauna, which are often sensitive to low frequency sounds.     

Authigenic carbonates from the eastern Black Sea as an archive for shallow gas hydrate dynamics – Results from the combination of CT imaging with mineralogical and stable isotope analyses

Authigenic carbonates associated with cold seeps provide valuable archives of changes in the long-term seepage activity. To investigate the role of shallow-buried hydrates on the seepage strength and fluid composition we analysed methane-derived carbonate precipitates from a high-flux hydrocarbon seepage area (“Batumi seep area”) located on the south-eastern Black Sea slope in ca. 850 m. In a novel approach, we combined computerized X-ray tomography (CT) with mineralogical and isotope geochemical methods to get additional insights into the three-dimensional internal structure of the carbonate build-ups.     

Analysis of coprolites from the extinct mountain goat Myotragus balearicus

Humans colonized the Balearic Islands 5–4 ka ago. They arrived in a uniquely adapted ecosystem with the Balearic mountain goat Myotragus balearicus (Bovidae, Antilopinae, Caprini) as the only large mammal. This mammal went extinct rapidly after human arrival. Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain the extinction of M. balearicus. For the present study ancient DNA analysis (Sanger sequencing, Roche-454, Ion Torrent), and pollen and macrofossil analyses were performed on preserved coprolites from M. balearicus, providing information on its diet and paleo-environment. The information retrieved shows that M. balearicus was heavily dependent on the Balearic box species Buxus balearica during at least part of the year, and that it was most probably a browser. Hindcast ecological niche modelling of B. balearica shows that local distribution of this plant species was affected by climate changes. This suggests that the extinction of M. balearicus can be related to the decline and regional extinction of a plant species that formed a major component of its diet. The vegetation change is thought to be caused by increased aridity occurring throughout the Mediterranean. Previous hypotheses relating the extinction of M. balearicus directly to the arrival of humans on the islands must therefore be adjusted.     

Fluids in granulites of the Southern Marginal Zone of the Limpopo Belt, South Africa

The Southern Marginal Zone of the Limpopo Belt in South Africa is characterised by a granulite and retrograde hydrated granulite terrane. The Southern Marginal Zone is, therefore, perfectly suitable to study fluids during and after granulite facies metamorphism by means of fluid inclusions and equilibrium calculations. Isolated and clustered high-salinity aqueous and CO₂(-CH₄) fluid inclusions within quartz inclusions in garnet in metapelites demonstrate that these immiscible low H₂O activity fluids were present under peak metamorphic conditions (800-850 °C, 7.5-8.5 kbar). The absence of widespread high-temperature metasomatic alteration indicates that the brine fluid was probably only locally present in small quantities. Thermocalc calculations demonstrate that the peak metamorphic mineral assemblage in mafic granulites was in equilibrium with a fluid with a low H₂O activity (0.2-0.3). The absence of water in CO₂-rich fluid inclusions is due to either observation difficulties or selective water leakage. The density of CO₂ inclusions in trails suggests a retrograde P-T path dominated by decompression at T<600 °C. Re-evaluation of previously published data demonstrates that retrograde hydration of the granulites at 600 °C occurred in the presence of H₂O and CO₂-rich fluids under P-T conditions of 5-6 kbar and ~600 °C. The different compositions of the hydrating fluid suggest more than one fluid source.     

A study to discriminate local,urban and regional source contributions to the particulate matter concentrations in the city of Dresden,Germany

The fractions of local traffic (LT), urban background (UBG) and regional background (RBG) of the particle pollution at a traffic-influenced kerbside in Dresden, Germany, were determined by measurements of size-segregated mass concentration, chemical composition and particle size distributions in a network of five measurement stations partly existing and partly set up for this study. Besides the kerbside station, one urban background site and three rural sites were included in the study. Using data from these different sites, the LT, UBG, and RBG contributions were calculated, following the approach of Lenschow et al. (2001). At the kerbside site, 19% of the total number concentration (Dp_St = 10–600 nm) could be attributed to the RBG, 15% to the UBG, and 66% to the LT immediately nearby. Particle mass concentrations up to Dp_aer = 420 nm RBG amounts to 68%, UBG to 21%, and LT only to 11%. Highest mass concentrations were observed at all stations in autumn and winter during easterly inflow directions. The local traffic fraction of PM₁₀ mass at the kerbside station was found to be 30% for westerly inflow, but only 7% for southeasterly inflow due to the dominating transport fraction from up to 80% of the particle mass at this inflow direction. Size-resolved investigation showed the main fractions in both the particle size ranges of Dp_aer = 0.42 to 1.2 and 0.14 to 0.42 μm at all stations. The main components sulphate, ammonium and total carbon showed higher concentrations at south-eastern/eastern inflow in autumn at all stations, while nitrate at the kerbside and urban background site was higher during westerly inflow in winter. The chemical composition at the regional background site at westerly inflow (12% nitrate, 8% sulphate, 11% total carbon) was significantly different from that at easterly inflow (3% nitrate, 15% sulphate, 22% total carbon). The prevailing part of the ionic mass was always found in the fine particle range of Dp_aer = 0.14 to 1.2 μm at all stations. For all inflow directions highest total carbon concentrations were observed at the kerbside station, especially in the ultra-fine size range of Dp_aer = 0.05 to 0.14 μm with up to 30% of the whole carbon. PAH concentrations were always higher at south-eastern/eastern inflow especially during wintertime. Trace metal components and silicon were found mainly in the coarse mode fraction at the kerbside resulting from abrasion or resuspension.     

基于生态水文学的黄河口湿地生态需水评价

根据生态系统保护的要求,以提高生态系统承载力、保护河口生态系统完整性和稳定性为原则,以促进区域生态系统的良性维持为目标,从生物多样性保护的角度,研究确定了23600hm^2的黄河三角洲应补水的湿地恢复和保护规模。在此基础上,采用景观生态学的原理和方法,在湿地植物生理学、生态学、水文学研究基础上及遥感和GIS技术的支持下,研究水分—生态耦合作用机理,建立基于生态水文学的黄河口湿地生态需水及评价模型,并运用预案研究方法和景观生态决策支持系统的规划评价思想,预测和评价了黄河口湿地不同补水方案产生的生态效果,重点研究了丹顶鹤、东方白鹳、黑嘴鸥等指示性物种适宜生境条件与湿地补水后的生态格局变化。评价结果表明,黄河三角洲湿地具备东方白鹳及丹顶鹤等保护性鸟类的繁殖和越冬的潜在生境条件,但其生境质量并不十分理想,通过湿地补水,作为珍稀鸟类重要栖息地芦苇湿地面积从现状的10000hm^2增加至22000hm^2,生态承载力大幅提高;研究在统筹黄河水资源条件、水资源配置工程措施和湿地生态系统综合保护需求后,推荐提出了黄河三角洲湿地恢复和保护的3.5亿m^3黄河补水量及补水时期。     

Onshore sandbar migration at Tairua Beach (New Zealand): Numerical simulations and field measurements

We observed the onshore migration (3.5 m/day) of a nearshore sandbar at Tairua Beach, New Zealand during 4 days of low-energy wave conditions. The morphological observations, together with concurrent measurements of waves and suspended sediment concentrations, were used to test a coupled, wave-averaged, cross-shore model. Because of the coarse bed material and the relatively low-energy conditions, the contribution of the suspended transport to the total transport was predicted and observed to be negligible. The model predicted the bar to move onshore because of the feedback between near-bed wave skewness, bedload, and the sandbar under weakly to non-breaking conditions at high tide. The predicted bathymetric evolution contrasts, however, with the observations that the bar migrated onshore predominantly at low tide. Also, the model flattened the bar, while in the observations the sandbar retained its steep landward-facing flank. A comparison between available observations and numerical simulations suggests that onshore propagating surf zone bores in very shallow water (< 0.25 m) may have been responsible for most of the observed bar behaviour. These processes are missing from the applied model and, given that the observed conditions can be considered typical of very shallow sandbars, highlight a priority for further field study and model development. The possibility that the excess water transported by the bores across the bar was channelled alongshore to near-by rip-channels further implies that traditional cross-shore measures to judge the applicability of a cross-shore morphodynamic model may be misleading.     

Recent sediment transport and accumulation on the NW Iberian margin

Five transects across the NW Iberian margin were studied in the framework of the EU-funded Ocean Margin EXchange II (OMEX II) project, to determine and establish recent sediment and organic carbon transport and accumulation processes and fluxes.On the Galician shelf and shelf edge, resuspension of sediments resulting in well-developed bottom nepheloid layers was observed at all stations, but transport of suspended sediment appears largely confined to the shelf. On the continental slope, only very dilute bottom nepheloid layers were present, and intermediate nepheloid layers were only occasionally seen. This suggests that cross-slope transfer of particles is limited by the prevailing northerly directed shelf and slope currents.Optical backscatter and ADCP current measurements by the BOBO lander, deployed at 2152 m depth on the Galician slope, indicated that particles in the bottom boundary layer were kept in suspension by tidal currents with highest speeds between 15–25 cm s⁻¹. Net currents during the recording period August 6th–September 10th 1998, were initially directed along-slope toward the NNW, but later turned off-slope toward the SW.The separation of the water masses on the slope from the sediment-laden shelf water by the along-slope current regime is reflected in the recent sedimentary deposits of the Galician shelf and slope. Apart from compositional differences, shelf deposits differ from those on the slope by their higher flux of excess ²¹⁰Pb (0.57–5.37 dpm cm⁻²y⁻¹ versus 0.11–3.00 dpm cm⁻²y⁻¹), a much higher sediment accumulation rate (315.6–2295.9 g m⁻²y⁻¹ versus 10.9–124.7 g m⁻²y⁻¹) and organic carbon burial rate (1.01–34.30 g m⁻²y⁻¹ versus 0.01–0.69 g m⁻²y⁻¹).In contrast to the observations on the Galician margin, pronounced nepheloid layers occurred in the Nazaré Canyon, which extended to considerably greater water depths. This indicates that significantly greater transport of fine-grained particles in both the INL and the BNL was occurring within the canyon, as reflected in the exceptionally high ²¹⁰Pb excess flux (up to 34.09 dpm cm⁻²y⁻¹), mass accumulation rates (maximum 9623.1 g m⁻²y⁻¹) and carbon burial fluxes (up to 180.91 g m⁻²y⁻¹) in the sediment. However, radioisotope fluxes in the lower canyon were only slightly higher than at comparable depths on the Galician margin. This suggests that transport and rapid accumulation is focused on the upper and middle part of the canyon, from where it is episodically released to the deep sea. Compared to the Galician margin, the Nazaré Canyon may be considered as an important organic carbon depocenter on short time-scales, and a major conduit for particulate matter transport to the deep sea on >100 y time-scales.