Developing an Event Tree for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment at Vesuvius

Probabilistic characterizations of possible future eruptive scenarios at Vesuvius volcano are elaborated and organized within a risk-based framework. In the EXPLORIS project, a wide variety of topics relating to this basic problem have been pursued: updates of historical data, reinterpretation of previous geological field data and the collection of new fieldwork results, the development of novel numerical modelling codes and of risk assessment techniques have all been completed. To achieve coherence, many diverse strands of evidence had to be unified within a formalised structure, and linked together by expert knowledge. For this purpose, a Vesuvius ‘Event Tree’ (ET) was created to summarise in a numerical-graphical form, at different levels of detail, all the relative likelihoods relating to the genesis and style of eruption, development and nature of volcanic hazards, and the probabilities of occurrence of different volcanic risks in the next eruption crisis. The Event Tree formulation provides a logical pathway connecting generic probabilistic hazard assessment to quantitative risk evaluation. In order to achieve a complete parameterization for this all-inclusive approach, exhaustive hazard and risk models were needed, quantified with comprehensive uncertainty distributions for all factors involved, rather than simple ‘best-estimate’ or nominal values. Thus, a structured expert elicitation procedure was implemented to complement more traditional data analysis and interpretative approaches. The structure of the Vesuvius Event Tree is presented, and some of the data analysis findings and elicitation outcomes that have provided initial indicative probability distributions to be associated with each of its branches are summarized. The Event Tree extends from initiating volcanic eruption events and hazards right through to human impact and infrastructure consequences, with the complete tree and its parameterisation forming a quantitative synoptic framework for comprehensive hazard evaluation and mapping of risk impacts. The organization of the Event Tree allows easy updating, as and when new information becomes available.     

Seismic reliability assessment of lifeline networks using clustering‐based multi‐scale approach

Seismic reliability assessment of lifeline networks gives rise to various technical challenges, which are mostly caused by a large number of network components, complex network topology, and statistical dependence between component failures. For effective risk assessment and probabilistic inference based on post‐hazard observations, various non‐simulation‐based algorithms have been developed, including the selective recursive decomposition algorithm (S‐RDA). To facilitate the application of such an algorithm to large networks, a new multi‐scale approach is developed in this paper. Using spectral clustering algorithms, a network is first divided into an adequate number of clusters such that the number of inter‐cluster links is minimized while the number of the nodes in each cluster remains reasonably large. The connectivity around the identified clusters is represented by super‐links. The reduced size of the simplified network enables the S‐RDA algorithm to perform the network risk assessment efficiently. When the simplified network is still large even after a clustering, additional levels of clustering can be introduced to have a hierarchical modeling structure. The efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed multi‐scale approach are demonstrated successfully by numerical examples of a hypothetical network, a gas transmission pipeline network, and a water transmission network. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatial scales of mesoscale eddies from GOCI Chlorophyll-a concentration images in the East/Japan Sea

The spatial scales of mesoscale eddies are of importance to understand physio-biogeochemical processes in the East/Japan Sea. Chlorophyll-a concentration images from the Geostationary Ocean Color Imager (GOCI) revealed numerous eddies during the phytoplankton bloom in spring. These eddies were manually digitized to obtain geolocation information at the peripheries from GOCI images and then least-square fitted to each ellipse. The elliptic elements were the geolocation position of the eddy center, the rotation angle from due east, the eccentricity, the lengths of the semi-major and semi-minor axes, and the mean radius of the ellipse. The spatial scales of eddies had a mean radii ranging from 10 km to 75 km and tended to be smaller in the northern region. The scales revealed a linear trend of about ?7.26 km/°N as a function of the latitude. This tendency depended on the latitudinal variation of the internal Rossby radius of deformation, which originates from the substantial difference in the density structure of the water column. The scales from the sea surface temperature image were larger by 1.30 times compared to those from ocean color image. This implies that physical processes along the periphery of the eddy affect the nutrient dynamics.     

Spatiotemporal Distribution of Dissolved Heavy Metals in Gyeonggi Bay,Korea

In this study, we investigated the spatial and temporal distribution of heavy metals and nutrients in Gyeonggi Bay, Korea, to determine their present statu     

Harmful Dinoflagellate Prorocentrum donghaiense Lu is Widely Distributed Along the East China Sea and Korean Coastal Area

Ocean Science Journal - There have been controversies regarding the taxonomy of Prorocentrum donghaiense, however Zhang et al. (2016) recently developed a probe with a quantitative real-time PCR...     

Does sea-level rise have an impact on saltwater intrusion?

Climate change effects are expected to substantially raise the average sea level. It is widely assumed that this raise will have a severe adverse impact on saltwater intrusion processes in coastal aquifers. In this study we hypothesize that a natural mechanism, identified here as the “lifting process,” has the potential to mitigate, or in some cases completely reverse, the adverse intrusion effects induced by sea-level rise. A detailed numerical study using the MODFLOW-family computer code SEAWAT was completed to test this hypothesis and to understand the effects of this lifting process in both confined and unconfined systems. Our conceptual simulation results show that if the ambient recharge remains constant, the sea-level rise will have no long-term impact (i.e., it will not affect the steady-state salt wedge) on confined aquifers. Our transient confined-flow simulations show a self-reversal mechanism where the wedge which will initially intrude into the formation due to the sea-level rise would be naturally driven back to the original position. In unconfined systems, the lifting process would have a lesser influence due to changes in the value of effective transmissivity. A detailed sensitivity analysis was also completed to understand the sensitivity of this self-reversal effect to various aquifer parameters.     

Assessment of satellite-based rainfall estimates in urban areas in different geographic and climatic regions

This paper presents an assessment of the 3B42 research version rainfall product from NASA’s Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA). The study provides new results of TMPA data accuracy in urban areas and highlights trends associated with the climatological indicators of temperature and relative humidity in cities. Ten years (1998-2007) of TMPA data were analyzed for three case study cities in the United States (Houston, Atlanta, and Las Vegas) and one in Korea (Cheongju), representing semi-arid to humid climates. At each location, an urbanized river basin and non-urbanized river basin were selected and comparisons between TMPA and rain gage observations were made for recorded storm events in the study period, the largest storm events by total depth, and selected hurricanes and topical storms. The results indicate TMPA data match well with rain gage observations at all locations. TMPA is slightly underestimated for semi-arid regions and overestimated for humid regions. The relative magnitude of TMPA rain event accumulation compared to rain gage accumulation is noted to be smaller for urbanized watersheds and high intensity events. The correlation of TMPA accuracy with temperature and relative humidity and the analysis of accuracy by season indicate TMPA is more accurate for convective rainfall events. This suggests a possible linkage between the observed urban-modified temperatures, hypothesized enhanced convection, and improved TMPA accuracy in urban areas.     

Sediment mounds and other sedimentary features related to hydrate occurrences in a columnar seismic blanking zone of the Ulleung Basin, East Sea, Korea

A mound related to a cold vent in a columnar seismic blanking zone (CSBZ) was formed around site UBGH1-10 in the central Ulleung Basin (2077 m water depth), East Sea, Korea. The mound is 300–400 m wide and 2–3 m high according to multi-beam bathymetry, 2–7 kHz sub-bottom profiler data, and multi-channel reflection seismic data. Seafloor topography and characteristics were investigated using a remotely operated vehicle (ROV) around site UBGH1-10, which is located near the northern part of the mound. The origin of the mound was investigated through lithology, mineralogy, hydrate occurrence, and sedimentary features using dive cores, piston cores, and a deep-drilling core. The CSBZ extends to ∼265 ms two-way traveltime (TWT) below the seafloor within a mass-transport deposit (MTD) unit. Gas hydrate was entirely contained 6–141 m below the seafloor (mbsf) within hemipelagic deposits intercalated with a fine-grained turbidite (HTD) unit, characteristically associated with high resistivity values at site UBGH1-10. The hydrate is commonly characterized by veins, nodules, and massive types, and is found within muddy sediments as a fracture-filling type. Methane has been produced by microbial reduction of CO₂, as indicated by C₁/C₂₊, δ¹³CCH4, and δD₄CH analyses. The bowl-shaped hydrate cap revealed at 20–45 ms TWT below the seafloor has very high resistivity and high salinity, suggesting rapid and recent gas hydrate formation. The origin of the sediment mound is interpreted as a topographic high formed by the expansion associated with the formation of the gas hydrate cap above the CSBZ. The lower sedimentation rate of the mound sediments may be due to local enhancement of bottom currents by topographic effects. In addition, no evidence of gas bubbles, chemosynthetic communities, or bacterial mats was observed in the mound, suggesting an inactive cold vent.