Application of general circulation models to the study of stratospheric ozone

Summary Observations of the ozone distribution indicate that modifications are required to the photochemical theory. These modifications involve ozone destruction by hydrogen and nitrogen products and ozone transport (both vertical and horizontal) due to atmospheric motions in the stratosphere. If the photochemical terms in the ozone continuity equation are omitted, changes due to atmospheric transport alone can be evaluated.Numerical computations were made of the three-dimensional wind structure as derived from the 12-layer (0–36 km) General Circulation Model developed by NCAR. The results showed that ozone is transported from the equatorial stratosphere poleward and downward in both hemispheres. The horizontal transport is primarily by the Hadley Cell in the tropics and by large-scale eddies in mid and high latitudes. The dominant mechanism for ozone transport are found to be similar to those derived for the horizontal heat and momentum transport found in other general circulation studies.     

On the Eulerian source-receptor relationship

A new approach is proposed to delineate the source-receptor relationship in an Eulerian model. A small, unique oscillatory signal is superimposed on each emission source in the airshed. At receptor sites the concentration time series are analyzed by a Fourier transform to give the amplitudefrequency spectrum. Distinct peaks found in the spectrum are identified at the emission frequencies. The amplitude of the spectrum at the source frequency represents the individual contribution from that emitter. Various atmospheric transport and diffusion models are solved to show the effects of different physical and chemical processes on the oscillatory signals. Both analytical and numerical solutions are used to demonstrate the performance of the method.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

One‐Pot Synthesis of Xanthate‐Functionalized Cellulose for the Detection of Micromolar Copper(II) and Nickel(II) Ions

A one‐pot synthesis and application of cellulose‐based sensors to efficiently detect various toxic metal ions in aqueous solutions in micromolar quantities is reported. Cellulose microfibers have been functionalized with carbon disulfide in alkaline solution to form cellulose xanthate. The material detects several toxic metal ions such as copper, nickel, or cobalt ions through color change detectable by the naked eye. The optical sensor can be used as an ideal flash test for assessing the quality of drinking water.     

Climate Change and Pastoral Economy in Kenya:A Blinking Future

Abstract: The present paper examines the changing climatic scenarios and associated effects on livestock farming (pastoralism) in the arid and semi arid lands (ASAL) of Kenya, which cover over 80% of the country. The study was carried out in the semi arid Mukogodo Division of Laikipia District in Kenya. This division received a mean annual rainfall of approximately 507.8?mm and the main source of livelihood was pastoralism. Questionnaire, structured interview, observation and literature review were the main methods of data collection. Rainfall was used in delineating changes in climate. Standardized precipitation index (SPI) and Markov process were used in analyzing drought severity and persistence, respectively. Approximately 38% of all droughts between 1975 and 2005 were prolonged and extremely severe, with cumulative severity indices ranging between ?2.54 and ?6.49. The probability that normal climatic conditions persisted for two or more consecutive years in Mukogodo Division remained constant at approximately 52%. However, the probability of wet years persisting for two or more years showed a declining trend, while persistence of dry years increased with duration. A drying climatic trend was established. This drying trend in the area led to increased land degradation and encroachment of invasive nonpalatable bushes. The net effect on pastoralism was large-scale livestock loss through starvation, disease and cattle rustling. Proper drought monitoring and accurate forecasts, community participation in all government interventions, infrastructural development in the ASAL and allocation of adequate resources for livestock development are some of the measures necessary for mitigating the dwindling pastoral economy in Kenya and other parts of the world.     

Rainfall-related debris flows in Carhuacocha Valley, Cordillera Huayhuash, Peru

Continuous heavy rainfall hit northern Peru in the second half of the 2008/2009 summer season. From the end of January to the beginning of March, the Cordillera Huayhuash experienced abnormally high precipitations that exceeded 270?mm. The antecedent rainfall, aggravated with a severe rainstorm of 20?mm on March 7 triggered a large debris flow in the upper Carhuacocha Valley early in the morning on March 8. The debris flow interrupted drainage from the upper part of the valley damming a lake in the narrow depression between the trough slope and the lateral moraine. As a result of the drainage interruption, water percolated through the moraine dam of Cangrajanca Lake where a secondary mass movement occurred in its inner slope. In September 2009, we mapped the debris flow and related landforms and estimated the total area and volume of both mass movements using geodetic measurements. About 104,000?m³ of sediments was moved from the trough slope towards the moraine from which 534,000?m³ flowed to Cangrajanca Lake subsequently. We analysed the rainfall conditions that triggered the debris flow using rainfall data from the nearby stations. We also compared the precipitation preceding the event with the rainfall thresholds for debris flow initiation.     

Social media insights on public perception and sentiment during and after disasters: The European floods in 2021 as a case study

Detecting and collecting public opinion via social media can provide near real-time information to decision-makers, which plays a vital role in urban disaster management and sustainable development. However, there has been little work focusing on identifying the perception and the sentiment polarity expressed by users during and after disasters, particularly regional flood events. In this article, we comprehensively analyze tweets data related to the “European floods in 2021” over time, topic, and sentiment, forming a complete workflow from data processing, topic modeling, sentiment analysis, and topic and sentiment prediction. The aim is to address the following research questions: (1) What are the public perception and main concerns during and after floods? (2) How does the public sentiment change during and after floods? Results indicate that there is a significant correlation between a flood's trend and the heat of corresponding tweets. The three topics that receive the most public concern are: (1) climate change and global warming; (2) praying for the victims: and (3) disaster situations and information. Negative sentiments are predominant during the floods and will continue for some time. We tested five different classifiers, of which TextCNN-attention turned out to deliver the best predictions in topic and sentiment prediction, and performed well for sparse flood tweets, it can be used to predict the topic and sentiment polarity of a single tweet in real-time during the flood events. Our findings can help disaster agencies to better understand the dynamics of social networks and develop stronger situational awareness towards a disaster, which can contribute to scientifically justified decision-making in urban risk management and also meet the challenges associated with the global sustainable development goal 11 (SDGs) on Sustainable Cities and Communities.     

Binary Star Detection with the GAIA Radial Velocity Spectrometer

Accuracy of the radial velocities and efficiency of the spectroscopic binary detection with the GAIA radial velocity spectrometer (RVS) is evaluated by employing the observed spectra (Cenarro et al., 2001) and simulated GAIA observations. Evaluation is performed in the magnitude range V =10-17 by applying the cross-correlation method. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Comparing the adaptive Gaussian mixture filter with the ensemble Kalman filter on synthetic reservoir models

Over the last years, the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has become a very popular tool for history matching petroleum reservoirs. EnKF is an alternative to more traditional history matching techniques as it is computationally fast and easy to implement. Instead of seeking one best model estimate, EnKF is a Monte Carlo method that represents the solution with an ensemble of state vectors. Lately, several ensemble-based methods have been proposed to improve upon the solution produced by EnKF. In this paper, we compare EnKF with one of the most recently proposed methods, the adaptive Gaussian mixture filter (AGM), on a 2D synthetic reservoir and the Punq-S3 test case. AGM was introduced to loosen up the requirement of a Gaussian prior distribution as implicitly formulated in EnKF. By combining ideas from particle filters with EnKF, AGM extends the low-rank kernel particle Kalman filter. The simulation study shows that while both methods match the historical data well, AGM is better at preserving the geostatistics of the prior distribution. Further, AGM also produces estimated fields that have a higher empirical correlation with the reference field than the corresponding fields obtained with EnKF.     

Drivers of Change and Sustainability in Linked Social–Ecological Systems: An Analysis in the Volta River Basin of Ghana,West Africa

Understanding the nature and relative importance of various drivers of change is crucial for sustainable management of natural resources and in prioritizing management efforts, allocating limited resources, and understanding cumulative effects. For this article, we employed structured an expert judgments approach to identify, characterize, and assess the relative importance of the key biophysical and socioeconomic drivers of change within the Volta River Basin, West Africa. Precipitation variability, water availability, land use change, drought events, and population growth were perceived as most important, while biodiversity loss, social conflicts, pest and disease occurrence, urbanization, and pollution were viewed as less critical. A majority of these drivers were characterized as “slow” acting processes as compared to rapidly changing drivers. Intra- and interexpert groups agreement were found to be significant and convergent, indicating the reliability of the results. The implications of these results for sustainable water resources management and agricultural production are discussed.     

对流层物质垂直交换模式中的参数化处理

为了研究对流层(TL)中垂直涡旋扩散系数(K_z)随高度变化的参数化形式对物质垂直交换的贡献,用“高分辨TL物质交换模式”(EM3)对5种不同K_z型进行了数值对比模拟,结果表明:KK_z型较好地描述了行星边界层(PBL)内受下垫面影响的高频湍流和PBL以上TL由各种动力学和热力学过程产生的切变湍流;垂直运动和K_z对PBL下层的物质输送到TL上层和从源高度向下输送到PBL低层两者均有重要作用;垂直运动的作用具有间隙性,而K_z是连续的.