Satellite observed long-term averaged seasonal and spatial ozone variations in the stratosphere

Nine years of Nimbus-7 SBUV ozone mixing ratio data (October 1978–September 1987) have been used to analyze the distributions of the long-term average annual and semiannual ozone oscillations in the lower, middle, and upper stratosphere over the region 65°S to 65°N. It is shown that the derived harmonics are consistent with the results of earlier investigations based on limited sets of data. Year-to-year changes of amplitudes of the annual and semiannual variations are generally small except in the tropical midstratosphere (due to the effect of El Chichon) and the southern subpolar upper stratosphere.

Analyses are also presented to show the vertical and seasonal distribution of the zonal ozone variations. It is shown that, for the long-term averaged data, wave 1 is larger during winter than summer and in winter larger in the Northern than Southern Hemisphere. The importance of photochemical and thermal/dynamic processes in modifying the time and zonal variations is discussed.     

The effect of a bounded interplanetary diffusion medium on the propagation of solar flare cosmic rays

An analysis of solar flare data indicates that the graph of log(nt ^3/(2–)) deviates late in the solar event from the straight line predicted for the infinite, unbounded interplanetary medium. It is shown by mathematical analysis, utilizing a model based on the radial diffusion coefficient D = Mr , with 1, that the deviation can be ascribed to the loss of flare particles through an external boundary at about 5–6 AU from the Sun. An inner region terminating at 5–6 AU, followed by an extensive region of increasingly less resistance to the diffusion of flare particles is also feasible and it is shown that measurements taken at the Earth cannot predict the extent of this outer region. The results are applicable to either the isotropic or highly anisotropic models. The constant diffusion model is shown to be inadequate since it requires a boundary 1.5 AU from the Sun. In view of the present and previous studies of solar flare data, it is asserted that the fundamental principle governing the diffusion of solar flare particles through interplanetary space is the radial diffusion coefficient mode of propagation.     

The continuous emission of low energy cosmic rays during solar flares

It has been recently suggested by several investigators that the accelerated charged particles provide the energy of the optical flare by the ionization loss process. We have examined this mechanism assuming different forms of the spectrum of the accelerated protons at lower chromosphere. The flux and the energy spectrum of protons of energy 0.1–100 MeV have been calculated at successive heights, from 10³ to 40 × 10³ km from the solar surface taking into account the ionization loss, pitch angle distribution and density distribution of the neutral and ionized hydrogen in the chromosphere and lower corona. Hence the energy spectrum of the protons escaping from the Sun and the amount of energy dissipated in the solar chromosphere are computed. Comparing the calculated results with the observational data on the solar event of September 28, 1961 it is found that the ionization loss of the accelerated protons and heavier nuclei in the solar atmosphere may supply a significant part of the energy of the optical flare assuming that the fraction, f, of magnetic tubes of force extending out of the solar atmosphere is about 1 %. The accelerated proton spectrum in the form of power law in kinetic energy seems to be the most appropriate form. In the event of September 28, 1961 best estimates are made on this basis of the total number and the energy spectrum of protons at injection, the flux and energy spectrum of escaping protons and the energy dissipated in the solar atmosphere by the accelerated ions. It is found that the possible range of variation of the height of injection level hardly affects the total energy dissipated. The high variability of the intensity of protons released by the Sun is interpreted in terms of the variations of the parameter, f, determined by the configurations of the magnetic field lines.Preliminary results were presented at the International Symposium on Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Leningrad, May, 1970.Presently at NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, U.S.A., on leave from T.I.F.R., Bombay.     

Detecting ancient wild rice (Zizania spp. L.) using phytoliths: a taphonomic study of modern wild rice in Minnesota (USA) lake sediments

Wild rice (Zizania spp. L.) is a North American native grain with spiritual and dietary significance to many native people. Wild rice is also an important aquatic plant that provides critical habitat to wetland and aquatic wildlife. Past distribution of wild rice in North America is poorly understood, largely because of the limited taxonomic resolution of Poaceae pollen. A novel technique for detecting diagnostic Zizania silica phytoliths allows unambiguous identification of this taxon in lake sediments. We need to better understand modern depositional patterns of phytoliths in lake sediments, however, before attempting detailed paleoreconstructions. We analyzed distributions of diagnostic Zizania and other Poaceae phytoliths in modern sediments from three lakes with variable percent cover of wild rice and a non-wild rice control lake in central Minnesota. Absolute counts of phytoliths per gram sediment were achieved using an exotic diatom marker. Non-Zizania short-cell phytoliths, i.e. phytoliths from wetland grasses Phragmites australis and Muhlenbergia glomerata, dominate the assemblages in all lakes. Most Poaceae short-cell phytoliths appear to be derived locally, with little evidence for regional inheritance from eolian or alluvial processes. Because of anatomical differences in decay of plant debris and other taphonomic issues, Zizania inflorescence rondel phytoliths were most abundant, with morphotypes from other parts rarely encountered. Even in sediments under the densest wild rice stands, Zizania phytoliths contributed a maximum of 9 % to total Poaceae phytolith abundance. Lake morphology also affects the depositional pattern of phytoliths in modern sediments, so coring locations should be considered carefully. At least 500 phytoliths should be counted to detect a sufficient number of wild rice phytolith morphotypes. Diagnostic Zizania phytoliths are a reliable tool for wild rice detection in paleolake sediments.     

Observation impact analysis methods for storm surge forecasting systems

This paper presents a simple method for estimating the impact of assimilating individual or group of observations on forecast accuracy improvement. This method is derived from the nsemble-based observation impact analysis method of Liu and Kalnay (Q J R Meteorol Soc 134:1327–1335, 2008). The method described here is different in two ways from their method. Firstly, it uses a quadratic function of model-minus-observation residuals as a measure of forecast accuracy, instead of model-minus-analysis. Secondly, it simply makes use of time series of observations and the corresponding model output generated without data assimilation. These time series are usually available in an operational database. Hence, it is simple to implement. It can be used before any data assimilation is implemented. Therefore, it is useful as a design tool of a data assimilation system, namely for selecting which observations to assimilate. The method can also be used as a diagnostic tool, for example, to assess if all observation contributes positively to the accuracy improvement. The method is applicable for systems with stationary error process and fixed observing network. Using twin experiments with a simple one-dimensional advection model, the method is shown to work perfectly in an idealized situation. The method is used to evaluate the observation impact in the operational storm surge forecasting system based on the Dutch Continental Shelf Model version 5 (DCSMv5).     

Neue Ergebnisse der Geschiebeforschung im norddeutschen Diluvium (kristalline Geschiebe)

Zusammenfassung Die neuen Geschiebeuntersuchungen bestätigen die Erfahrung, daß jede Vereisung ihren besonderen Geschiebeinhalt besitzt. Für die Elster-Vereisung spielen ostfennoskandische, für die Saale-Vereisung westfennoskandische Geschiebe die Hauptrolle. Im jüngeren Diluvium sind alle Geschiebegruppen etwa gleich stark an der Zusammensetzung des Geschiebeinhaltes beteiligt. Das Ostseebecken tritt besonders in der Warthe-Vereisung als Hauptlieferant von Geschieben auf. Von der Pommerschen Phase ab ergeben sich stark differenzierte Geschiebeverhältnisse.Von einer Gleichartigkeit des Geschiebebestandes von Holland bis Ostpreußen, wieKummerow meint, kann man demnach nicht sprechen. Scharf abgetrennte Sonderungen des Geschiebeinhaltes nach Gesteinsprovinzen oder sogar noch kleineren Heimatgebieten haben sich für kristalline Geschiebe in Norddeutschland nicht ergeben. Sie waren nach den mehrfach richtungswechselnden Gletscherbahnen und bei der Rolle des norddeutschen Diluviums als Randbildung einer großen fennoskandischen Eismasse auch nicht zu erwarten. Die Unterschiede in der Beteiligung von 4 großen Geschiebegruppen genügen aber, um das Alter von Diluvialablagerungen an ihren Geschieben zu erkennen. Die Durchführung derartiger stratigraphischer Aufgaben ist durch die Heranziehung von 80 neuen kristallinen Leitgeschieben verbessert. Auf der verbreiterten Grundlage ist natürlich auch eine verfeinerte Analyse der Gletscherbahnen und des Vereisungsmechanismus überhaupt im großen und kleinen Maßstabe möglich. Man darf sich allerdings dabei nicht verhehlen, daß nun zwar die Grundzüge, aber noch längst nicht die Einzelgeschehnisse des Eiszeitalters geklärt sind. An dieser Aufgabe mitzuwirken, ist auch die Geschiebeforschung berufen und in vielen, oben dargetanen Fällen durch keine andere Forschungsart zu ersetzen. Daß Untersuchungen kristalliner Geschiebe je nach Neigung nebenbei oder hauptsächlich petrographisch, paläogeographisch oder rein sammlungsmäßig-heimatkundlich dankbare Objekte abgeben, dafür sind aus den Arbeiten der letzten 5 Jahre ebenfalls einige Beispiele angeführt.