Climate change impacts on water management and irrigated agriculture in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, USA

The Yakima River Reservoir system supplies water to ~180,000 irrigated hectares through the operation of five reservoirs with cumulative storage of ~30% mean annual river flow. Runoff is derived mostly from winter precipitation in the Cascade Mountains, much of which is stored as snowpack. Climate change is expected to result in earlier snowmelt runoff and reduced summer flows. Effects of these changes on irrigated agriculture were simulated using a reservoir system model coupled to a hydrological model driven by downscaled scenarios from 20 climate models archived by the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. We find earlier snowmelt results in increased water delivery curtailments. Historically, the basin experienced substantial water shortages in 14% of years. Without adaptations, for IPCC A1B global emission scenarios, water shortages increase to 27% (13% to 49% range) in the 2020s, to 33% in the 2040s, and 68% in the 2080s. For IPCC B1 emissions scenarios, shortages occur in 24% (7% to 54%) of years in the 2020s, 31% in the 2040s and 43% in the 2080s. Historically unprecedented conditions where senior water rights holders suffer shortfalls occur with increasing frequency in both A1B and B1 scenarios. Economic losses include expected annual production declines of 5%–16%, with greater probabilities of operating losses for junior water rights holders.     

A conceptual framework for multi-regional climate change assessments for international market systems with long-term investments

A conceptual framework for climate change assessments of international market systems that involve long-term investments is proposed. The framework is a hybrid of dynamic and static modeling. Dynamic modeling is used for those system components for which temporally continuous modeling is possible, while fixed time slices are used for other system components where it can be assumed that underlying assumptions are held constant within the time slices but allowed to vary between slices. An important component of the framework is the assessment of the “metauncertainty” arising from the structural uncertainties of a linked sequence of climate, production, trade and decision-making models. The impetus for proposing the framework is the paucity of industry-wide assessments for market systems with multiple production regions and long-term capital investments that are vulnerable to climate variations and change, especially climate extremes. The proposed framework is pragmatic, eschewing the ideal for the tractable. Even so, numerous implementation challenges are expected, which are illustrated using an example industry. The conceptual framework is offered as a starting point for further discussions of strategies and approaches for climate change impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments for international market systems.     

Snowmelt runoff and soil moisture dynamics on steep subalpine hillslopes

Snowmelt water supplies streamflow and growing season soil moisture in mountain regions, yet pathways of snowmelt water and their effects on moisture patterns are still largely unknown. This study examined how flow processes during snowmelt runoff affected spatial patterns of soil moisture on two steep sub‐alpine hillslope transects in Rocky Mountain National Park, CO, USA. The transects have northeast‐facing and east‐facing aspects, and both extend from high‐elevation bedrock outcrops down to streams in valley bottoms. Spatial patterns of both snow depth and near‐surface soil moisture were surveyed along these transects in the snowmelt and summer seasons of 2008–2010. To link these patterns to flow processes, soil moisture was measured continuously on both transects and compared with the timing of discharge in nearby streams. Results indicate that both slopes generated shallow lateral subsurface flow during snowmelt through near‐surface soil, colluvium and bedrock fractures. On the northeast‐facing transect, this shallow subsurface flow emerged through mid‐slope seepage zones, in some cases producing saturation overland flow, whereas the east‐facing slope had no seepage zones or overland flow. At the hillslope scale, earlier snowmelt timing on the east‐facing slope led to drier average soil moisture conditions than on the northeast‐facing slope, but within hillslopes, snow patterns had little relation to soil moisture patterns except in areas with persistent snow drifts. Results suggest that lateral flow and exfiltration processes are key controls on soil moisture spatial patterns in this steep sub‐alpine location. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ceres’ evolution and present state constrained by shape data

We model Ceres’ thermo-physical-chemical evolution by considering a large range of initial conditions as well as various evolutionary scenarios. Models are constrained by available shape measurements, which point to a differentiated interior for Ceres. We address the role played by hydrothermal activity in the long-term evolution of Ceres and especially the evolution of its hydrosphere. We suggest that models with times of formation shorter than about 5 My after the production of calcium-aluminum inclusions are more likely to undergo hydrothermal activity in their early history, which affects Ceres’ long-term thermal evolution. We evaluate the conditions for preserving liquid water inside Ceres, a possibility enhanced by its warm surface temperature and the enrichment of its hydrosphere in a variety of chemical species. However, thermal modeling of the hydrosphere needs to be further investigated. We show that shape data can help constrain the amount of hydrated silicate in the core, and thus the extent of hydrothermal activity in Ceres. We discuss the importance of these results for the Dawn mission’s arrival at Ceres in 2015.     

Galileo PPR observations of Europa: Hotspot detection limits and surface thermal properties

The Galileo photopolarimeter–radiometer (PPR) made over 100 observations of Europa’s surface temperature. We have used these data to constrain a diurnal thermal model and, thus, map the thermal inertia and bolometric albedo over 20% of the surface. We find an increased thermal inertia at mid-latitudes that is widespread in longitude and does not appear to correlate with geology, albedo, or other observables. Our derived thermophysical properties can be used to predict volatile stability across the surface over the course of a day and in planning of infrared instruments on future missions. Furthermore, while observations in the thermal infrared can and have been used to find endogenic activity, no such activity was detected at Europa. We have calculated the detection limits of these PPR observations and find that 100 km² hotspots with temperatures of 116–1200 K could exist undetected on the surface, depending on the location.     

SHRIMP U–Pb zircon geochronological evidence for Neoarchean basement in western Arnhem Land, northern Australia

The Pine Creek Orogen, located on the exposed northern periphery of the North Australian Craton, comprises a thick succession of variably metamorphosed Palaeoproterozoic siliciclastic and carbonate sedimentary and volcanic rocks, which were extensively intruded by mafic and granitic rocks. Exposed Neoarchean basement is rare in the Pine Creek Orogen and the North Australian Craton in general. However, recent field mapping, in conjunction with new SHRIMP U–Pb zircon data for six granitic gneiss samples, have identified previously unrecognised Neoarchean crystalline crust in the Nimbuwah Domain, the eastern-most region of the Pine Creek Orogen. Four samples from the Myra Falls and Caramal Inliers, the Cobourg Peninsula, and the Kakadu region have magmatic crystallisation ages in the range 2527–2510 Ma. An additional sample, from northeast Myra Falls Inlier, yielded a magmatic crystallisation age of 2671 ± 3 Ma, the oldest exposed Archean basement yet recognised in the North Australian Craton. These results are consistent with previously determined magmatic ages for known outcropping and subcropping crystalline basement some 200 km to the west. A sixth sample yielded a magmatic crystallisation age of 2640 ± 4 Ma. The ca. 2670 Ma and ca. 2640 Ma samples have ca. 2500 Ma metamorphic zircon rims, consistent with metamorphism broadly coeval with emplacement of the volumetrically dominant ca. 2530–2510 Ma granites and granitic gneisses. Neoarchean zircon detritus, particularly in the ca. 2530–2510 Ma and ca. 2670–2640 Ma age span, are an almost ubiquitous feature of detrital zircon spectra of unconformably overlying metamorphosed Palaeoproterozoic strata of the Pine Creek Orogen, and of local post-tectonic Proterozoic sequences, consistent with this local provenance. Neoarchean zircon is also a common detrital component in Palaeoproterozoic sedimentary units across much of the North Australian Craton suggesting the existence of an extensive, if not contiguous, Neoarchean crystalline basement underlying not only a large part of the Pine Creek Orogen, but also much of the North Australian Craton.     

Late Holocene lake-level and lake development signals in Lower Herring Lake, Michigan

Paleolimnological investigations of a marginal lake in the Lake Michigan basin revealed signals of long-term lake-level changes primarily controlled by climatic forces. Multiple analyses identified concurrent signals in sediment chemistry, grain size, and the microfossil record. Coarse-grained sediments, benthic diatoms, and nutrient response species increased as lake levels rose or fell. Finer sediments and higher percentages of taxa associated with stable thermocline conditions occurred during high-lake periods. Sedimentary evidence revealed corresponding strong high-lake signals c. 2500–2200, 1800–1500, 1170–730, and 500–280 BP. Low-lake periods occurred c. 1500–1170 and 700–500 B.P. An additional signal of lake-level decline was apparent beginning c. 280 BP but was interrupted by anthropogenic effects. Evidence of extreme low-lake levels (c. 1400–1300 BP), and signals for a medieval warming period (1030–910 BP) and the Maunder minimum (370–325 BP) indicate occurrence of short-lived dry climatic conditions.     

Texturally-early fluid inclusions in garnets: evidence of the prograde metamorphic path?

Well-formed, texturally-early fluid inclusions in garnets from the Archean Pikwitonei granulite domain, Manitoba, Canada, have been analyzed using microthermometric methods. The mean CO₂ homogenization temperature (to liquid) for inclusions in 12 of 13 samples from the Cauchon Lake-Nelson River area is +15.2° C (n=125, 2σ=8.2° C), corresponding to a CO₂ density of 0.82 g/cm³. Inclusions in the remaining sample have somewhat lower CO₂ homogenization temperatures (mean=+5.4° C, n=24). The studied inclusions contain an estimated 10 to 20 vol. percent H₂O, with minor amounts of other fluid species such as CH₄, N₂, and/or H₂S. The fluid inclusions were probably trapped during early garnet growth at relatively low pressures (≤5 kbar if at 750° C), and appear to have undergone only limited or possibly no subsequent re-equilibration. This interpretation is consistent with the “anti-clock-wise” P-T-t path (heating before loading) determined for the Pikwitonei region by other workers. For such a prograde path, inclusions entrapped early, at high temperatures but at relatively low pressures, would experience internal underpressures during most of the subsequent prograde and retrograde phases of metamorphism. The texturally-early fluid inclusions in garnets from the Pikwitonei region therefore cannot be used to provide direct information about the highest metamorphic temperature and pressure conditions (750° C and 7 kbar). However, the results obtained in this study suggest that texturally-early fluid inclusions in garnets may, in some cases, retain evidence of the prograde metamorphic path.     

Pleistocene raised marine deposits on Wrangel Island, northeast Siberia and implications for the presence of an East Siberian ice sheet

Two previously undocumented Pleistocene marine transgressions on Wrangel Island, northeastern Siberia, question the presence of an East Siberian or Beringian ice sheet during the last glacial maximum (LGM). The Tundrovayan Transgression (459,000–780,000 yr B.P.) is represented by raised marine deposits and landforms 15–41 m asl located up to 18 km inland. The presence of high sea level 64,000–73,000 yr ago (the Krasny Flagian Transgression) is preserved in deposits and landforms 4–7 m asl in the Krasny Flag valley. These deposits and landforms were mapped, dated, and described using amino acid geochronology, radiocarbon, optically stimulated luminescence, electron spin resonance, oxygen isotopes, micropaleontology, paleomagnetism, and grain sizes. The marine deposits are eustatic and not isostatic in origin. All marine deposits on Wrangel Island predate the LGM, indicating that neither Wrangel Island nor the East Siberian or Chukchi Seas experienced extensive glaciation over the last 64,000 yr.