Climate change and critical thresholds in China’s food security

Identification of ‘critical thresholds’ of temperature increase is an essential task for inform policy decisions on establishing greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets. We use the A2 (medium-high GHG emission pathway) and B2 (medium-low) climate change scenarios produced by the Regional Climate Model PRECIS, the crop model – CERES, and socio-economic scenarios described by IPCC SRES, to simulate the average yield changes per hectare of three main grain crops (rice, wheat, and maize) at 50 km × 50 km scale. The threshold of food production to temperature increases was analyzed based on the relationship between yield changes and temperature rise, and then food security was discussed corresponding to each IPCC SRES scenario. The results show that without the CO₂ fertilization effect in the analysis, the yield per hectare for the three crops would fall consistently as temperature rises beyond 2.5 ^{^}C; when the CO₂ fertilization effect was included in the simulation, there were no adverse impacts on China’s food production under the projected range of temperature rise (0.9–3.9 ^{^}C). A critical threshold of temperature increase was not found for food production. When the socio-economic scenarios, agricultural technology development and international trade were incorporated in the analysis, China’s internal food production would meet a critical threshold of basic demand (300 kg/capita) while it would not under A2 (no CO₂ fertilization); whereas basic food demand would be satisfied under both A2 and B2, and would even meet a higher food demand threshold required to sustain economic growth (400 kg/capita) under B2, when CO₂ fertilization was considered.     

新疆新源、和静交界M_S6.6地震房屋建筑和震害特征分析

2012年6月30日新疆新源、和静交界MS6.6地震造成灾区大量工业与民用建筑遭到破坏。为了能对灾区今后恢复重建加强房屋的抗震性能提供依据,介绍了灾区房屋建筑结构类型和建筑特点,分析了各类房屋建筑的震害特征及其破坏原因,并对提高房屋的抗震能力提出了建议。     

三峡坝区截流期气候背景及径流特征分析

根据宜昌最近四十多年逐日气象资料和一百多年流量资料，详细分析了大江截流期（１０—１２月）坝区的一般气候特征和可能影响施工的气温、降水、风、天气现象等演变规律。最后，着重探讨了坝址在截流期（１１月）的流量和上游汇水区前期降水量的统计关系，并在此基础上建立了流量的长期预报模式     

Semi-empirical models of the white-light flare on October 24, 1991

On October 24, 1991, a white-light flare was observed both from space and from the ground. A multi-waveband spectral analysis shows that the peak time of the continuum emission coincides well with that of a radio burst at 2840 MHz and with the hard X-ray emission. Three semi-empirical models, corresponding to the pre-flare condition and to the peak time of continuum emission both with and without non-thermal excitation and ionization of hydrogen by an electron beam, have been obtained. The results indicate that there is fast heating both in the chromosphere and the photosphere. Some evidence is given that this WLF is very likely a result of bombardment by an electron beam. By taking into account non-thermal effects, the chromospheric temperature of the semi-empirical model is significantly reduced.     

WRF模式对山谷城市边界层模拟能力的检验及地面气象特征分析

利用先进的WRF中尺度模式中3种边界层参数化方案(YSU、MYJ和ACM2),模拟了2005年1月25~28日兰州市冬季地面温度和风速的变化,并与同期系留探空和自动气象站的实测资料进行了对比分析。结果表明:对兰州冬季大气边界层地面温度日变化的模拟,局地闭合的MYJ方案优于非局地闭合的YSU和ACM2方案;3种方案模拟的夜间位温廓线较好,白天的较差;在边界层低层,考虑局地和非局地闭合的ACM2方案模拟的位温廓线与观测值比较一致;在边界层上部,局地闭合的MYJ方案则更适合于描述大气湍流对位温垂直分布的影响;3种边界层参数化方案模拟的兰州地区冬季温度场空间分布特征相似,但MYJ方案模拟的夜间温度低于YSU和ACM2方案,白天则高于YSU和ACM2方案。     

雅浦海沟南缘铁锰结核矿物与地球化学特征及其成因研究

本文采用X射线衍射、全岩地球化学和电子探针等测试方法,对雅浦海沟南部附近海域获得的铁锰结核样品进行了显微构造、矿物和地球化学分析,并探讨了其成因。结果表明:铁锰结核的显微构造主要包括平行纹层构造、柱状构造、叠层状构造和同心环状构造;显微构造和探针结果显示铁锰结核在生长初期处于底部海洋动力比较强烈的环境,后期生长环境逐渐趋于稳定;铁锰结核的矿物组分以水羟锰矿、钠水锰矿、石英和钙十字石为主;样品中Fe、Mn元素含量较高且含量比较接近,Cu、Co、Ni和REE相对富集,REE分布模式整体比较平缓并都出现较强的Ce正异常和重稀土元素亏损现象;文中两块铁锰结核都为水成成因,成矿物质主要来自同期的海水沉淀,同时也受一定海底火山物质和陆源风尘物质的影响。     

“2007.4.1”四川盆地强寒潮天气过程分析

利用T2131°×1°和欧洲中心实时资料,对2007年4月1～3日四川盆地区域性寒潮天气过程的环流背景及影响系统进行了分析,结果表明:500hPa乌拉尔山到贝加尔湖以东为宽广深厚的低压带,地面上巴湖附近为冷高压,此冷高压在500hPa脊前西北气流的引导下东移南压,是造成此次寒潮大风天气的主要原因;而且低空急流也对降温有一定的作用。     

河流地貌演化研究进展

本文基于近年来全球河流地貌演化的研究实例及新进展,介绍了主要的研究载体与思路,讨论了河流地貌演化事件背后的地质、环境意义。沉积学、地貌学、物源分析、低温热年代学等是解决河流地貌演化问题的重要工具。沉积学记录着河流演化的一手资料,同时,沉积物定年技术的发展为揭示河流演化过程提供了高精度的时间约束。地貌指数研究是根据河流剖面形态与流域特征等揭示河流及区域地貌演化过程的研究手段,在恢复基岩隆升历史,定义地貌演化状态和判断分水岭迁移等方面具有优势。基于碎屑热年代学的物源分析方法结合沉积物沉积年代测定的研究思路则是利用了地表物质的“源—汇”过程变化,是揭示水系沟通演化历史的有效手段。当借助中-低温热年代学的多方法联合和单矿物的多重定年作为物源示踪剂时,可以有效提高分析精度,具有广阔的研究前景。另外,低温热年代学和宇宙核素¹⁰Be等对浅表过程十分敏感,记录了百万年—千年尺度的河流侵蚀作用,是示踪流域侵蚀方式空间变化和定量化揭示侵蚀过程的有力工具。河流的诞生与演化是地表过程的重大事件,记录了局部或区域的构造—气候背景,也是研究构造—气候—地貌耦合及互馈过程的重要纽带。特别是新生代晚期以来,地貌形成过程伴随着古人类的诞生与发展,而河流的演化则在古人类活动和迁徙中起到了重要的控制作用。因此,河流地貌演化的背景动力及环境意义体现了地球多圈层的相互作用与协同演化。

     

川南煤田龙潭组煤系泥页岩气与煤层气组合模式及合采前景分析

文中研究的上二叠统龙潭组煤层及其顶底板泥页岩含气性特征、组合模式及合采对煤系气勘探开发意义重大。为改变煤层气产业低产低效长周期的现状,实现综合效益的目标,将龙潭组作为目标层进行研究;简述了川南煤田龙潭组含气泥页岩与煤层的组合模式,并初步探讨了上述组合模式合探合采的必要性、条件和前景,并提出了开展综合勘探开采的建议。     

Precise orbit and baseline determination for maneuvering low earth orbiters

GPS Solutions - Orbital maneuvers are usually performed as needed for low earth orbiters to maintain a predefined trajectory or formation-flying configuration. To avoid unexpected discontinuities...