一种附约束的单频单历元GPS双差相位解算方法

在各类变形观测中，存在着2次观测的变形值不大及各种变形方向和大小可以比较精确预测等特点，可以把这些特征作为约束条件，对GPS单历元相位观测方程进行求解。基于以上几点，提出了一种含约束条件的单频单历元GPS相位求解算法和简单实用的模糊度搜索方法，本方法据观测值直接估计模糊度参数，并根据求出的模糊度估值进行搜索，还分析了最优解的获得和检验方法，最后用2个实例说明了该法的有效性和实用性。     

Recent Progress in the Impact of the Tibetan Plateau on Climate in China

Studies of the impacts of the Tibetan Plateau （TP） on climate in China in the last four years are reviewed. It is reported that temperature and precipitation over the TP have increased during recent decades. From satellite data analysis, it is demonstrated that most of the precipitation over the TP is from deep convection clouds. Moreover, the huge TP mechanical forcing and extraordinary elevated thermal forcing impose remarkable impacts upon local circulation and global climate. In winter and spring, stream flow is deflected by a large obstacle and appears as an asymmetric dipole, making East Asia much colder than mid Asia in winter and forming persistent rainfall in late winter and early spring over South China. In late spring, TP heating contributes to the establishment and intensification of the South Asian high and the abrupt seasonal transition of the surrounding circulations. In summer, TP heating in conjunction with the TP air pump cause the deviating stream field to resemble a cyclonic spiral, converging towards and rising over the TP. Therefore, the prominent Asian monsoon climate over East Asia and the dry climate over mid Asia in summer are forced by both TP local forcing and Eurasian continental forcing.
Due to the longer memory of snow and soil moisture, the TP thermal status both in summer and in late winter and spring can influence the variation of Eastern Asian summer rainfall. A combined index using both snow cover over the TP and the ENSO index in winter shows a better seasonal forecast.
On the other hand, strong sensible heating over the Tibetan Plateau in spring contributes significantly to anchor the earliest Asian monsoon being over the eastern Bay of Bengal （BOB） and the western Indochina peninsula. Qualitative prediction of the BOB monsoon onset was attempted by using the sign of meridional temperature gradient in March in the upper troposphere, or at 400 hPa over the TP. It is also demonstrated by a numerical experiment and theoretical study that the heating over the TP lea     

滇池福保湾间隙水氮磷分布及其与底泥微生物和磷酸酶相互关系

在滇池福保湾不同区域应用Peeper(渗析膜式)技术,分析了底泥间隙水NH4 -N、Po43--p的垂向分布特征和近表层10cm内底泥的微生物活性(FDA)、碱性磷酸酶活性(APA),并对它们之间的相互关系进行了统计分析.结果表明,NH4 -N和Po43--p浓度自上覆水向下层间隙水呈先升后降趋势,反映它们有自间隙水向上覆水扩散的潜在危害;底泥有机质(Loss-on-Ignion,LOI)、APA和FDA活性也有从表层底泥向下层逐步降低的趋势.在空问分布上,Po43--p浓度变化为河口区>湾心区>西部沿岸区>东部沿岸区,与沉积物中LOI、APA和FDA活性的大小顺序基本相同.间隙水NH4 6-N浓度与表层10cm内底泥的APA和FDA活性具有显著正相关性(α＝0.01).Po43--p浓度与底泥APA和FDA活性具有负相关性.但相关系数很低.     

河北坝上沙漠化土地综合整治优化模式

本文通过对河北丰宁坝上大滩村农业系统的环境条件、发展历史、结构现状及功能等的分析，针对存在的问题，提出了综合调整系统结构、提高系统功能的原则、对策及整治途径，建立了系统的优化模式并进行了效益分析。     

Multi-step ahead short-term predictions of storm surge level using CNN and LSTM network

Storm surges pose significant danger and havoc to the coastal residents' safety, property, and lives, particularly at offshore locations with shallow water levels. Predictions of storm surges with hours of warning time are important for evacuation measures in low-lying regions and coastal management plans. In addition to experienced predictions and numerical models, artificial intelligence (AI) techniques are also being used widely for short-term storm surge prediction owing to their merits in good level of prediction accuracy and rapid computations. Convolutional neural network (CNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) are two of the most important models among AI techniques. However, they have been scarcely utilised for surge level (SL) forecasting, and combinations of the two models are even rarer. This study applied CNN and LSTM both individually and in combination towards multi-step ahead short-term storm surge level prediction using observed SL and wind information. The architectures of the CNN, LSTM, and two sequential techniques of combining the models (LSTM–CNN and CNN–LSTM) were constructed via a trial-and-error approach and knowledge obtained from previous studies. As a case study, 11 a of hourly observed SL and wind data of the Xiuying Station, Hainan Province, China, were organised as inputs for training to verify the feasibility and superiority of the proposed models. The results show that CNN and LSTM had evident advantages over support vector regression (SVR) and multilayer perceptron (MLP), and the combined models outperformed the individual models (CNN and LSTM), mostly by 4％–6％. However, on comparing the model computed predictions during two severe typhoons that resulted in extreme storm surges, the accuracy was found to improve by over 10％ at all forecasting steps.     

北黄海温盐分布季节变化特征分析

利用2006～2007年夏冬春秋4个季节北黄海的大面调查资料,分析了4个季节北黄海温度和盐度大面以及典型断面分布特征,得出以下结论:2007年冷水团势力范围强于2006年,北黄海冷水团的形成受地形影响.黄海暖流冬春季较强,冬季最强,夏季最弱,秋季开始形成.鲁北沿岸流冬季最强,春季减弱,夏秋季消失,但夏季鲁北沿岸存在冬季鲁北沿岸流水的残余体,即鲁北沿岸水.辽南沿岸水4个季节都以低盐为特征,除夏季低盐中心位于庄河口外,其它3个季节低盐中心均位于调查区域的东北角.渤海与北黄海之间的水交换4个季节都存在.春季,断面盐跃层形成滞后于温跃层;秋季,断面盐跃层消失滞后于温跃层.     

新一代区域海-气-浪耦合台风预报系统

依托国家重点基础研究（973）计划项目"上层海洋对台风的响应和调制机理研究",中国气象局上海台风研究所联合国家海洋局的相关单位,通过实施近海台风的外场观测科学试验、加强台风边界层（特别是海气相互作用）物理过程诊断分析及参数化方案等的研究,建立并改进了台风强度预报的海-气-浪耦合预报模式系统,并在此基础上发展了台风强度的集合预报技术,在历史典型台风个例和2016-2017年台汛期的业务化测试中表现出良好的预报性能。     

过去千年气候变化重建研究新进展

20世纪气候变暖的归因是当前全球共同关注的焦点之一,而解决这一问题的途径之一是对过去千年的气候变化历史进行精确重建。简要回顾过去千年气候重建的研究进展,重点关注古气候空间重建方法方面的最新进展,并将目前古气候空间重建方法划分为3类,即综合-比例法（Composite Plus Scale, CPS）、气候场重建法（Climate Field Reconstruction, CFR）以及状态空间模型（State-space Model）法,同时指出了这些方法的优缺点以及可能的解决途径。     

贵金属资源的应用及开发

将贵金属的应用,资源分布,生产和贵金属的分析化学结合在一起进行了综述,由于贵金属资源的短缺性及考虑可持续发展战略,特别介绍了贵金属资源的二次回收问题,并对其将来的发展作了一定的评价和展望。     

陆生蜗牛壳体碳氧同位素组成与气候

陆生蜗牛响应气候环境变化敏感,其壳体化石碳氧同位素组成（δ¹³C和δ¹⁸O）具有重建古生态和古大气水文条件的巨大潜力。然而目前针对中国黄土古土壤沉积序列中蜗牛化石碳氧同位素组成开展的古环境古气候重建研究却仍然不足,根源在于对蜗牛壳体δ¹³C和δ¹⁸O指标气候意义的认识仍不明确。文章从现代过程研究着手,综述了目前有关蜗牛壳体δ¹³C和δ¹⁸O气候环境意义的研究进展,并指出各自指标存在受控因子的复杂性和多解性等问题。通过总结这些研究认为：陆生蜗牛壳体δ¹³C值主要通过反映植物（尤其C₃）δ¹³C值变化来进一步响应当地降水量变化,进而指示环境的干湿程度,但同时需要考虑环境碳酸盐、大气CO₂等额外因子对壳体δ¹³C的影响;壳体δ¹⁸O值可以在较大程度上反映大气降水δ¹⁸O值变化,但同时需要考虑蒸发作用和温度等因素对壳体δ¹⁸O的影响;壳体δ¹³C和δ¹⁸O在作为气候指标时常受区域和蜗牛种属等因素影响。此外,还介绍了目前中国北方黄土地层中蜗牛壳体化石稳定同位素组成重建季风变化的研究进展和近十年来有关蜗牛壳体团簇同位素新方法的研究进展。最后,论文针对壳体δ¹³C和δ¹⁸O指标存在的问题提出可能的解决办法,并对以后蜗牛碳氧同位素古环境研究方向进行展望。