Climate warming, water storage, and Chinook salmon in California’s Sacramento Valley

The Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) spawns and rears in the cold, freshwater rivers and tributaries of California’s Central Valley, with four separate seasonal runs including fall and late-fall runs, a winter run, and a spring run. Dams and reservoirs have blocked access to most of the Chinook’s ancestral spawning areas in the upper reaches and tributaries. Consequently, the fish rely on the mainstem of the Sacramento River for spawning habitat. Future climatic warming could lead to alterations of the river’s temperature regime, which could further reduce the already fragmented Chinook habitat. Specifically, increased water temperatures could result in spawning and rearing temperature exceedences, thereby jeopardizing productivity, particularly in drought years. Paradoxically, water management plays a key role in potential adaptation options by maintaining spawning and rearing habitat now and in the future, as reservoirs such as Shasta provide a cold water supply that will be increasingly needed to counter the effects of climate change. Results suggest that the available cold pool behind Shasta could be maintained throughout the summer assuming median projections of mid-21st century warming of 2°C, but the maintenance of the cold pool with warming on the order of 4°C could be very challenging. The winter and spring runs are shown to be most at risk because of the timing of their reproduction.     

Clay smear processes in mechanically layered sequences — Results of water-saturated model experiments with free top surface

The aim of this study is to improve our knowledge of the processes that lead to clay smear during faulting of a layered sand-clay sequence in an analogue sandbox model. We carefully characterized mechanical properties of the materials used by a series of geotechnical tests. Displacement field was quantified using PIV (Particle Image Velocimetry). The model is water-saturated to allow the deformation of wet clay and sand in one experiment comprising a sand package with a horizontal layer of clay above a predefined rigid basement fault. The thickness and rigidity of the clay layer are the parameters varied in this study. The model shows a range of structures that are related to competence contrast between sand and different clay types. Results show ductile shearing of soft clay with a transition to brittle fracturing of stiff clay accompanied by the formation of rotating clay blocks in the fault zone. Localized deformation is observed through time showing (i) the propagation of one active fault migrating laterally through the sediment package, and (ii) the formation of a stable prism between two or more active faults that gets progressively smaller with minor rotation of the hanging wall fault. Continuous clay smear is observed resulting from the lateral injection of clay as well as from a reworked mixture of sand and clay.     

Using Argo data to investigate the Meridional Overturning Circulation in the North Atlantic

Using a variety of oceanographic data, including direct volume transports in the Florida Strait, and Argo float profiles and drift velocities at 24°N and 36°N in the North Atlantic, inverse calculations are presented in which the net meridional transport, down to a depth of approximately 1600 m, is estimated at both latitudes for a 5-year period 2003–2007. The upper ocean is divided into seven layers using neutral density, and mass conservation constraints have been applied to a closed box bounded by these latitudes, including the Florida Strait. Ekman layer transports have been included in the top-most layer, and the inverse calculation has solved for changes from the initial reference velocities, Ekman and Florida Strait transports, given a priori estimates on the accuracy of each of these quantities. Solutions with and without transformations due to Mediterranean Water (MW) formation are made. Our results indicate that (1) time-averaged transport estimates derived from Argo have significant less eddy noise than individual hydrographic sections, (2) Argo drift velocities provide information to the inverse solution for the ocean interior, and (3) comparison of the total integrated interior mass transports in the thermocline waters for the period 2003–2007 with the previous estimates based on trans-ocean hydrographic sections shows that, within the errors of our estimation, the upper limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation has not significantly changed since 1957.     

Mississippi Valley-type lead–zinc deposits through geological time: implications from recent age-dating research

Remarkable advances in age dating Mississippi Valley-type (MVT) lead-zinc deposits provide a new opportunity to understand how and where these deposits form in the Earth's crust. These dates are summarized and examined in a framework of global tectonics, paleogeography, fluid migration, and paleoclimate. Nineteen districts have been dated by paleomagnetic and/or radiometric methods. Of the districts that have both paleomagnetic and radiometric dates, only the Pine Point and East Tennessee districts have significant disagreements. This broad agreement between paleomagnetic and radiometric dates provides added confidence in the dating techniques used. The new dates confirm the direct connection between the genesis of MVT lead-zinc ores with global-scale tectonic events. The dates show that MVT deposits formed mainly during large contractional tectonic events at restricted times in the history of the Earth. Only the deposits in the Lennard Shelf of Australia and Nanisivik in Canada have dates that correspond to extensional tectonic events. The most important period for MVT genesis was the Devonian to Permian time, which corresponds to a series of intense tectonic events during the assimilation of Pangea. The second most important period for MVT genesis was Cretaceous to Tertiary time when microplate assimilation affected the western margin of North America and Africa-Eurasia. There is a notable paucity of MVT lead-zinc ore formation following the breakup of Rodinia and Pangea. Of the five MVT deposits hosted in Proterozoic rocks, only the Nanisivik deposit has been dated as Proterozoic. The contrast in abundance between SEDEX and MVT lead-zinc deposits in the Proterozoic questions the frequently suggested notion that the two types of ores share similar genetic paths. The ages of MVT deposits, when viewed with respect to the orogenic cycle in the adjacent orogen suggest that no single hydrologic model can be universally applied to the migration of the ore fluids. However, topographically driven models best explain most MVT districts. The migration of MVT ore fluids is not a natural consequence of basin evolution; rather, MVT districts formed mainly where platform carbonates had some hydrological connection to orogenic belts. There may be a connection between paleoclimate and the formation of some MVT deposits. This possible relationship is suggested by the dominance of evaporated seawater in fluid inclusions in MVT ores, by hydrological considerations that include the need for multiple-basin volumes of ore fluid to form most MVT districts, and the need for adequate precipitation to provide sufficient topographic head for topographically-driven fluid migration. Paleoclimatic conditions that lead to formation of evaporite conditions but yet have adequate precipitation to form large hydrological systems are most commonly present in low latitudes. For the MVT deposits and districts that have been dated, more than 75% of the combined metal produced are from deposits that have dates that correspond to assembly of Pangea in Devonian through Permian time. The exceptional endowment of Pangea and especially, North America with MVT lead-zinc deposits may be explained by the following: (1) Laurentia, which formed the core of North America, stayed in low latitudes during the Paleozoic, which allowed the development of vast carbonate platforms; (2) intense orogenic activity during the assembly of Pangea created ground preparation for many MVT districts through far-field deformation of the craton; (3) uplifted orogenic belts along Pangean suture zones established large-scale migration of basin fluids; and (4) the location of Pangea in low latitudes with paleoclimates with high evaporation rates led to the formation of brines by the evaporation of seawater and infiltration of these brines into deep basin aquifers during Pangean orogenic events.     

Rare earth geochemistry of fused ophiolitic and alpine lherzolites

Partial fusion hypotheses have been proposed for the origin of lherzolite-harzburgite alpine peridotite associations. Analyzed lherzolites from Othris, Ronda, Lanzo and Beni Bouchera, have light REE depleted to chondritic REE abundances, and clinopyroxenes contain most of the REE relative to depleted olivine and orthopyroxene. Variation in the level of REE enrichment within these lherzolites indicates mantle heterogeneity probably caused by partial melting processes. The Beni Bouchera spinel lherzolite and the Othris plagioclase lherzolite are the best candidates for relatively undepleted mantle based on REE studies. Fractional fusion calculations (15–25%) reveal that partial melts have REE characteristics somewhat similar to oceanic tholeiites. Conversely, computed source peridotites from oceanic tholeiites (Schilling, 1975) are similar to the alpine lherzolites reported here. Alpine lherzolites are, however, depleted in trace elements (K, Rb, Sr and Ba, Menzies and Murthy 1976). Since the lherzolites have an undepleted major, minor and REE chemistry close to that of pyrolite, the lost trace element-rich fraction must represent a small degree of melting. It is proposed that alpine lherzolites are residue left after the loss of a nephelinitic/alkalic fraction, ([Ce/Yb]_N=2.0–4.01) representing a small degree of partial fusion. This labile fraction may have existed as an intergranular phase or hydrous mineral prior to melting.     

Isotopic composition of surface-correlated chromium in Apollo 16 lunar soils

We have analyzed by thermal ionization mass spectrometry (TIMS) the isotopic composition of Cr in five progressive etches of size-sorted plagioclase grains separated from lunar soils 60601 and 62281. Aliquots of the etch solutions were spiked for isotopic dilution (ID) analysis of Cr and Ca. The Ca ID data indicate that the initial etch steps represent dissolution of an average 0.1 to 0.2 μm depth from the grain surfaces, the approximate depth expected for implanted solar wind. The Cr/Ca ratio in the initial etches is several fold higher than that expected for bulk plagioclase composition, but in subsequent etches decreases to approach the bulk value. This indicates a source of Cr extrinsic to the plagioclase grains, surface-correlated and resident in the outermost fraction of a μm, which we provisionally identify as solar wind Cr. The surface-correlated Cr is isotopically anomalous and by conventional TIMS data reduction has approximately 1 permil excess ⁵⁴Cr and half as great excess ⁵³Cr. In successive etches, as the Cr/Ca ratio decreases and approaches the bulk plagioclase value, the magnitude of the apparent anomalies decreases approaching normal composition. If these results do indeed characterize the solar wind, then either the solar wind is enriched in Cr due to spallation in the solar atmosphere, or the Earth and the various parent bodies of the meteorites are isotopically distinct from the Sun and must have formed from slightly different mixes of presolar materials. Alternative interpretations include the possibility that the anomalous Cr is meteoritic rather than solar or that the observed (solar) Cr is normal except for a small admixture of spallation Cr generated on the Moon. We consider these latter possibilities less likely than the solar wind interpretation. However, they cannot be eliminated and remain working hypotheses.     

Impacts of Climate Change on the Global Forest Sector

The path and magnitude of future anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide will likely influence changes in climate that may impact the global forest sector. These responses in the global forest sector may have implications for international efforts to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. This study takes a step toward including the role of global forest sector in integrated assessments of the global carbon cycle by linking global models of climate dynamics, ecosystem processes and forest economics to assess the potential responses of the global forest sector to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We utilize three climate scenarios and two economic scenarios to represent a range of greenhouse gas emissions and economic behavior. At the end of the analysis period (2040), the potential responses in regional forest growing stock simulated by the global ecosystem model range from decreases and increases for the low emissions climate scenario to increases in all regions for the high emissions climate scenario. The changes in vegetation are used to adjust timber supply in the softwood and hardwood sectors of the economic model. In general, the global changes in welfare are positive, but small across all scenarios. At the regional level, the changes in welfare can be large and either negative or positive. Markets and trade in forest products play important roles in whether a region realizes any gains associated with climate change. In general, regions with the lowest wood fiber production cost are able to expand harvests. Trade in forest products leads to lower prices elsewhere. The low-cost regions expand market shares and force higher-cost regions to decrease their harvests. Trade produces different economic gains and losses across the globe even though, globally, economic welfare increases. The results of this study indicate that assumptions within alternative climate scenarios and about trade in forest products are important factors that strongly influence the effects of climate change on the global forest sector.