Climate change and snow-cover duration in the Australian Alps

This study uses a model of snow-cover duration, an observed climate data set for the Australian alpine area, and a set of regional climate-change scenarios to assess quantitatively how changes in climate may affect snow cover in the Australian Alps. To begin, a regional interannual climate data set of high spatial resolution is prepared for input to the snow model and the resulting simulated interannual and spatial variations in snow-cover duration are assessed and compared with observations. The model provides a reasonable simulation of the sensitivities of snow-cover duration to changes in temperature and precipitation in the Australian Alps, although its performance is poorer at sites highly marginal for snow cover. (In a separate comparison, the model also performs well for sites in the European Alps.) The input climate data are then modified in line with scenarios of regional climate change based on the results of five global climate models run in enhanced greenhouse experiments. The scenarios are for the years 2030 and 2070 and allow for uncertainty associated with projecting future emissions of greenhouse gases and with estimating the sensitivity of the global climate system to enhanced greenhouse forcing. Attention focuses on the climate changes most favourable (best-case scenario) and least favourable (worst-case scenario) for snow cover amongst the range of climate changes in the scenarios. Under the best case scenario for 2030, simulated average snow-cover duration and the frequency of years of more than 60 days cover decline at all sites considered. However, at the higher sites (e.g., more than 1700 m) the effect is not very marked. For the worst case scenario, a much more dramatic decline in snow conditions is simulated. At higher sites, simulated average snow cover duration roughly halves by 2030 and approaches zero by 2070. At lower sites (around 1400 m), near zero average values are simulated by 2030 (compared to durations of around 60 days for current climate).These simulated changes, ranging between the best and worst case, are likely to be indicative of how climate change will affect natural snow-cover duration in the Australian Alps. However, note that the model does not allow directly for changes in the frequency and intensity of snow-bearing circulation systems, nor do the climate-change scenarios allow possible changes in interannual variability (particularly that due to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation) and local topographical effects not resolved by global climate models. The simulated changes in snow cover are worthy of further consideration in terms of their implications for the ski industry and tourism, water resources and hydroelectric power, and land-use management and planning.68 Barada Crescent, Aranda ACT 2614, Australia.     

One-dimensional checkerboards and blending heights

We analyze the checkerboard problem of many alternating surfaces with different properties, on scales up to (say) 3,000 m. Power-law representations of the vertical profiles of mean wind speed and eddy diffusivity lead to solutions in terms of Kelvin and trigonometric functions.These solutions are used to determine blending heights (_*), where deviations from the mean of concentration, or of vertical flux density, fall to some small fraction, , of their value at the surface. Values of _*are important for regional and larger-scale meteorological models. In smaller scale micrometeorological studies, they may serve also as the top levels of surface boundary layers.An important result for both theoretical and experimental contexts is that deviations of flux persist with elevation much more strongly than those of concentration, so that, in general, _* should be based on flux rather than concentration. Representative values of _*, for = 0.05, are of order 5 and 30 m for surface pattern wavelengths of 10² and 10³ m, respectively. Values of _* are robust to changes in adopted power-law indices, and are independent of wind speed. Surface roughness has a mild but calculable effect.     

Megamaser galaxies

An analysis of a sample of OH megamaser galaxies is presented. It is shown that the dependence of L_OH on L_FIR (far infrared) is not quadratic, as previously assumed, but closer to linear. In megamaser galaxies, L_C (radio continuum) L_FIR1. Analysis of the data also shows that as the OH emission line width decreases, the absolute values of the pumping efficiency and maser amplification coefficient increase. The radio luminosity of the central component in these galaxies increases with a decrease in the ratio L_FIR/L_C, whereas the FIR luminosity remains constant. These results will, in all probability, force a reexamination of the questions of pumping and maser emission mechanisms in megamaser galaxies.Translated fromAstrofizika, Vol. 39, No. 3, pp. 417–429, July–September, 1996.     

The Taconite Inlet Lakes Project: a systems approach to paleoclimatic reconstruction

A comprehensive study of meteorological, hydrological, limnological and sedimentological conditions in the watersheds of density-stratified (meromictic) lakes around Taconite Inlet, Northern Ellesmere Island, N.W.T., Canada was carried out from 1990–1992. Lakes C1 and C2 contain seawater trapped by isostatic uplift as the former embayments became isolated from the sea. These lakes, and Lake C3, contain varved sediments which provide an annually resolvable paleoclimatic record. By studing the major systems influencing sedimentation in one of these lakes (Lake C2) a better understanding of the climatic controls on varve formation, and hence on the paleoclimatic signal in the varved sediment record, was obtained. The varves of Lake C2 provide a proxy record of summer temperature for the region.This is the first in a series of papers published in this issue on the Taconite Inlet Lakes Project. These papers were collected by Dr R. S. Bradley.     

Emigration,return, immigration: a review and evaluation of Greece's postwar experience of international migration

"This paper offers a review and evaluation of the Greek experience of international migration.... The analysis is based partly on available published data, and partly on qualitative appraisals. Three major international migration phases are analysed--emigration, return migration and immigration--and the main socio-economic and cultural effects of these migration trends are discussed. The paper pays particular attention to the recent mass immigration movements, noting their heterogeneity...and describing their impact on the Greek labour market. The article concludes with some comments on the difficulties of formulating a Greek migration policy in the light of the country's location, open borders and internationalized economy."     

Imaging coronal emission lines under high sky-background conditions

We have obtained images in solar coronal emission lines under high sky-background conditions by making precise differential measurements between the coronal emission line and the near-by continuum, which is primarily due to scattered light from the solar disk. Chopping between the two wavelengths was performed at 100 kHz to avoid artifacts from fast-flying dust particles and other aerosols, and also from seeing effects. The differential signal was detected with a novel CCD camera that demodulates signals up to 100 kHz. These preliminary observations show coronal emission at the 0.2% level of the scattered-light background and pave the way to efficient and precise imaging of coronal emission features under less than ideal coronal-sky conditions.Operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, Inc. (AURA) under cooperative agreement with the National Science Foundation.     

The effects of solar and ionospheric parameters on seasonal variation of 6300 Å line emission at Calcutta

The purpose of this paper is to find correlation between OI 6300 Å line intensity with solar and ionospheric parameters. A critical study have been made and the following important results are obtained:

A rural “eye” in the Capital: Tuti Island,Khartoum, Sudan

Islands at strategic points have often become the core of a modern city, or have been developed as historic heritage sites. This has been especially true when the settlers have been strangers in the land. This paper examines why such a situation has not occurred with Tuti Island at the confluence of the White and Blue Niles in the centre of Sudan's Three Towns capital, even though the first permanent inhabitants at the confluence were strangers and chose Tuti Island for their first settlement. The paper questions whether Tuti can survive as a green eye in its present form with the increasing pressures from the urban areas surrounding it.     

Towards a political geography of United Nations peacekeeping: Some considerations

Peacekeeping missions should be viewed from various political and spatial perspectives. Firstly, there is the macro-level perspective of the UN Organization itself, particularly the respective interests of the most powerful members of the UN and permanent seat holders on the Security Council. Secondly, there are the national perspectives of the various resources and troop-contributing states to specific UN operations. Thirdly, there are the interests of the conflicting parties themselves, including governments, national armies, local militia groups, factional political leaders and local communities. An analysis of UN peacekeeping involves a complex multi-dimensional geopolitical framework that incorporates the linkages and contradictions between all these differing perspectives, from macro to micro-spatial scales. Peacekeepers themselves are not passive figures in the political and human landscapes within which they operate. Many of the activities of UN blue helmets alter landscapes and conflict scenarios. Whilst some of these changes are deliberate, such as the creation of demilitarized zones, many are unforeseen and less visible, such as the ways in which local civilian populations are affected by the presence of large numbers of foreign peacekeepers. This paper examines some of the political, social and economic consequences of peacekeeping missions in places as diverse as Cambodia, Somalia, the Lebanon and Cyprus.     

Multiple Isotopic Components in Quaternary Volcanic Rocks of the Cascade Arc near Crater Lake, Oregon

Quaternary lavas and pyroclastic rocks of Mount Mazama, CraterLake caldera, and the surrounding area have variable Sr, Nd,and Pb isotopic compositions. High-alumina olivine tholeiites(HAOT) have ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios of 0.70346–0.70364; basalticandesite, 0–70349–0.70372; shoshonitic basalticandesite, 0.70374–0.70388; and andesite, 0.70324–0.70383.Dacites of Mount Mazama have ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios of 0.70348–0.70373.Most rhyodacites converge on 0.7037. However, rhyodacite ofthe caldera-forming, climactic eruption has ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr=0.70354because of an admixed low-⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr component. Andesitic tomafic-cumulate scoriae of the climactic eruption, and enclavesin preclimactic rhyodacites, cluster in two groups but shownearly the entire ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr range of the data set, confirmingpreviously suggested introduction of diverse parental magmasinto the growing climactic chamber. Pb and Nd isotope ratiosdisplay less variation (²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb= 18.838–18.967, ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb=15.556–15.616,²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb=38.405–38.619; _Nd= +3.9 to +6.1) and generallycovary with ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶ Sr ratios. Radiogenic isotope data fromCrater Lake plot with published data for other Cascade volcanoeson isotope ratio correlation diagrams. The isotopic data for the Crater Lake area require sources ofprimitive magmas to consist of depleted mantle and a subductioncomponent, introduced in variable quantity to the depleted mantlewedge. Variable degrees of melting of this heterogeneous mantle,possibly at different depths, produced the diversity of isotopiccompositions and large-ion lithophile element (LILE) abundancesin primitive magmas. Trace element ratios do not indicate presenceof an ocean island basalt (OIB) source component that has beenreported in lavas of some other Cascade volcanoes. Crustal contamination may have affected isotope ratios and LILEconcentrations in evolved HAOT, where initial LILE concentrationswere low. Contamination is more difficult to detect in the calcalkalinelavas because of their higher LILE concentrations and the smallisotopic contrast with likely contaminants, such as mid- tolower-crustal rocks thought to be equivalents of igneous rocksof the Klamath Mountains and associated lower crust. Crustalassimilation appears to be required for calcalkaline rocks onlyby ¹⁸O values, which vary from lows of +5.6 to + 6.0% in HAOTand primitive basaltic andesites to a high of +7.0% in dacite,a range that is too high to be explained by plagioclase-dominatedclosed-system fractional crystallization. Elevated ¹⁸O valuesof differentiated lavas may be attributed to interaction withrelatively ¹⁸O-rich, ⁸⁷Sr-poor crustal rocks. Variably fused granitoid blocks ejected in the climactic eruption,and rarely in late Pleistocene eruptive units, have ¹⁸Opl of–3.4 to +6.5% and ¹⁸O_qz of –2.2 to +8.0% but haveSr, Nd, and Pb isotope ratios similar to volcanic rocks (e.g.⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr0.7037). Rb and Sr data for glass separates from granodioritessuggest that the source pluton is Miocene. Glass from granodioritehas ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios as high as 0.70617. Oxygen isotope fractionationbetween quartz, plagioclase, and glass indicates requilibrationof O isotopes at magmatic temperatures, after ¹⁸O/¹⁶O had beenlowered by exchange with meteoric hydrothermal fluids. Unmeltedgranodiorite xenoliths from pre-climactic eruptive units have¹⁸O values that are consistent with onset of hydrothermal exchangeearly during growth of the climactic magma chamber. Assimilationof such upper-crustal granodiorite apparently lowered ¹⁸O valuesof rhyodacites without significantly affecting their magmaticcompositions in other ways.