Estimation and prediction of the spatial occurrence of fish species using Bayesian latent Gaussian models

A methodological approach for modelling the occurrence patterns of species for the purpose of fisheries management is proposed here. The presence/absence of the species is modelled with a hierarchical Bayesian spatial model using the geographical and environmental characteristics of each fishing location. Maps of predicted probabilities of presence are generated using Bayesian kriging. Bayesian inference on the parameters and prediction of presence/absence in new locations (Bayesian kriging) are made by considering the model as a latent Gaussian model, which allows the use of the integrated nested Laplace approximation ( INLA ) software (which has been seen to be quite a bit faster than the well-known MCMC methods). In particular, the spatial effect has been implemented with the stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) approach. The methodology is evaluated on Mediterranean horse mackerel (Trachurus mediterraneus) in the Western Mediterranean. The analysis shows that environmental and geographical factors can play an important role in directing local distribution and variability in the occurrence of species. Although this approach is used to recognize the habitat of mackerel, it could also be for other different species and life stages in order to improve knowledge of fish populations and communities.     

Comparison of adaptive structural damage identification techniques in nonlinear hysteretic vibration isolation systems

Early structural damage identification to obtain an accurate condition assessment can assist in the reprioritization of structural retrofitting schedules in order to guarantee structural safety. Nowadays, seismic isolation technology has been applied in a wide variety of infrastructure, such as buildings, bridges, etc., and the health conditions of these nonlinear hysteretic vibration isolation systems have received considerable attention. To effectively detect structural damage in vibration isolation systems based on vibration data, three time-domain analysis techniques, referred to as the adaptive extended Kalman filter （AEKF）, adaptive sequential nonlinear least-square estimation （ASNLSE） and adaptive quadratic sum-sqnares error （AQSSE）, have been investigated. In this research, these analysis techniques are compared in terms of accuracy, convergence and efficiency, for structural damage detection using experimental data obtained through a series of laboratory tests based on a base-isolated structural model subjected to E1 Centro and Kobe earthquake excitations. The capability of the AEKF, ASNLSE and AQSSE approaches in tracking structural damage is demonstrated and compared.     

Integrating lysimeter drainage and eddy covariance flux measurements in a groundwater recharge model

Abstract

Field-scale water balance is difficult to characterize because controls exerted by soils and vegetation are mostly inferred from local-scale measurements with relatively small support volumes. Eddy covariance flux and lysimeters have been used to infer and evaluate field-scale water balances because they have larger footprint areas than local soil moisture measurements. This study quantifies heterogeneity of soil deep drainage (D) in four 12.5-m² repacked lysimeters, compares evapotranspiration from eddy covariance (ET_EC) and mass balance residuals of lysimeters (ETwb_Lys), and models D to estimate groundwater recharge. Variation in measured D was attributed to redirection of snowmelt infiltration and differences in lysimeter hydraulic properties caused by surface soil treatment. During the growing seasons of 2010, 2011 and 2012, ETwb_Lys (278, 289 and 269 mm, respectively) was in good agreement with ET_EC (298, 301 and 335 mm). Annual recharge estimated from modelled D was 486, 624 and 613 mm for three calendar years 2010, 2011 and 2012, respectively. In summary, lysimeter D and ET_EC can be integrated to estimate and model groundwater recharge.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis     

Methods, current status, and prospect of targeted observation

Targeted observation is an observation strategy by which the concerned phenomenon is observed.In geoscience,targeted observation is mainly related to the forecasts of weather events or predictions of climate events.This paper will first review the history of targeted observation,and then introduce the main methods used in targeted observation.The discussion on the theoretical basis of targeted observation includes its advantages and limitations.After presenting the current situation of domestic and international targeted observations in atmospheric and oceanic sciences,the methods used for targeted observation,and their effect evaluation and testing are mainly discussed here.Finally,the author presents his suggestion about the prospect of further development in the field,and how to extend the method of targeted observation to deal with numerical model errors.     

Modeling the morphology of gully cross sections in the Yuanmou Dry-hot Valley

Abstract

Characterizing gully cross sections (GCs) is essential for calculating the volume and erosion rate of the gully. However, little research has focused on modeling the morphology of GCs. This study investigated 456 GCs with a laser distance meter located at the mouth, middle, and head of 152 gullies in the Yuanmou Dry-hot Valley of China; mapped them with AutoCAD software; fitted them with 2nd–6th degree polynomial functions, and discussed the correlation between the coefficients and the morphology of GCs. The results showed that: (1) using a 2nd-degree polynomial function (y = ax² + bx + c) to describe the morphology of GCs produced a better result than other polynomial functions; (2) the coefficient a of 2nd-degree polynomial function was correlated with depth (r = ?0.226, p < 0.01), gradient (r = 0.545, p < 0.01), and activities; and (3) the symmetry axis (?b/2a) of 2nd-degree polynomial function increased with gully change from left-deflection to right-skewed, and the absolute value showed the asymmetrical degree (r = 0.216, p < 0.01). This study will not only help to understand the morphology and evolution of gullies, but will also provide a scientific basis for prevention of gully erosion.     

Trace-element composition and zoning in clinopyroxene- and amphibole-group minerals: Implications for element partitioning and evolution of carbonatites

The present work is a first comprehensive study of the trace-element composition and zoning in clinopyroxene- and amphibole-group minerals from carbonatites, incorporating samples from 14 localities worldwide (Afrikanda, Aley, Alnö, Blue River, Eden Lake, Huayangchuan, Murun, Oka, Ozernaya Varaka, Ozernyi, Paint Lake, Pinghe, Prairie Lake, Turiy Mys). The new electron-microprobe data presented here significantly extend the known compositional range of clinopyroxenes and amphiboles from carbonatites. These data confirm that calcic and sodic clinopyroxenes from carbonatites are not separated by a compositional gap, instead forming an arcuate trend from nearly pure diopside through intermediate aegirine–augite compositions confined to a limited range of CaFeSi₂O₆ contents (15–45 mol%) to aegirine with < 25 mol% of CaMgSi₂O₆ and a negligible proportion of CaFeSi₂O₆. A large set of LA-ICPMS data shows that the clinopyroxenes of different composition are characterized by relatively low levels of Cr, Co and Ni (≤ 40 ppm) and manifold variations in the concentration of trivalent lithophile and some incompatible elements (1–150 ppm Sc, 26–6870 ppm V, 5–550 ppm Sr, 90–2360 ppm Zr, and nil to 150 ppm REE), recorded in some cases within a single crystal. The relative contribution of clinopyroxenes to the whole-rock Rb, Nb, Ta, Th and U budget is negligible. The major-element compositional range of amphiboles spans from alkali- and Al-poor members (tremolite) to Na–Al-rich Mg- or, less commonly, Fe-dominant members (magnesiohastingsite, hastingsite and pargasite), to calcic–sodic, sodic and potassic–sodic compositions intermediate between magnesio-ferrikatophorite, richterite, magnesioriebeckite, ferri-nyböite and (potassic-)magnesio-arfvedsonite. In comparison with the clinopyroxenes, the amphiboles contain similar levels of tetravalent high-field-strength elements (Ti, Zr and Hf) and compatible transition elements (Cr, Co and Ni), but are capable of incorporating much higher concentrations of Sc and incompatible elements (up to 500 ppm Sc, 43 ppm Rb, 1470 ppm Sr, 1230 ppm Ba, 80 ppm Pb, 1070 ppm REE, 140 ppm Y, and 180 ppm Nb). In some carbonatites, amphiboles contribute as much as 25% of the Zr + Hf, 15% of the Sr and 35% of the Rb + Ba whole-rock budget. Both clinopyroxenes and amphiboles may also host a significant share (~ 10%) of the bulk heavy-REE content. Our trace-element data show that the partitioning of REE between clinopyroxene (and, in some samples, amphibole) and the melt is clearly bimodal and requires a revision of the existing models assuming single-site REE partitioning. Clinopyroxenes and amphiboles from carbonatites exhibit a diversity of zoning patterns that cannot be explained exclusively on the basis of crystal chemistry and relative compatibility of different trace-element in these minerals. Paragenetic analysis indicates that in most cases, the observed zoning patterns develop in response to removal of selected trace elements by phases co-precipitating with clinopyroxene and amphibole (especially magnetite, fluorapatite, phlogopite and pyrochlore). With the exception of magnesiohastingsite–richterite sample from Afrikanda, the invariability of trace-element ratios in the majority of zoned clinopyroxene and amphibole crystals implies that fluids are not involved in the development of zoning in these minerals. The implications of the new trace-element data for mineral exploration targeting REE, Nb and other types of carbonatite-hosted rare-metal mineralization are discussed.     

渤海湾西岸全新世地层的分段与划组

本文以岩性地层、气候地层(CaCO3含量、古温度和Rb/Sr比值等)、年代地层、沉积化学地层和生物组合地层等资料为基础,根据地层规范以及建组要求将渤海湾西岸全新世地层划分为3个组:独流镇组( Qh3 dl)、大黄洼组(Qh2dh)和西翟庄组(Qh1xz).其地层埋深界线及测年界线分别为:晚全新世独流镇组(Qh3dl)与...     

Sources and behavior of arsenic and trace elements in groundwater and surface water in the Poopó Lake Basin,Bolivian Altiplano

Water management in semiarid and arid catchments such as the Poopó Lake Basin requires improved understanding of the complex behavior of the various contaminants, which affect the drinking water quality and considered as crucial for sustainable development of the region. Mechanisms of arsenic (As) release in the surface and groundwater were studied. Hydrochemical data for surface water (4 samples) and groundwater (28 samples) were collected in a small watershed in the Poopó catchment at the highland of the Bolivian Andes (Altiplano). All of them show high electrical conductivity values and moderately oxidizing conditions. The surface water contains high concentration of sulfate and the trace elements As, Zn and Pb in the zone affected by acid mine drainage. There is a large variability of the concentration of As and of the trace elements in the groundwater in the five different regions within the Poopó catchment. The metal concentrations sensitive to changes of redox state and results of speciation modeling suggest that As (V) is a predominant aqueous species, which conforms to the prevailing oxidizing conditions in the shallow groundwater environment. Two generalized trends for As distribution were identified in groundwater: (a) high concentrations are found in the arid zone (100–250 μg/L) in the southern (region III) and in the northwestern (region V) regions, and (b) low concentrations (<50 μg/L) are found in the remaining part of the basin (region I, II and IV). However, the spatial distribution within these regions needs to be investigated further. A conclusion from the present study is that there are multiple sources of As as well as other trace elements (such as Cd, Mn and Zn) in the Poopó Lake Basin. Among the sources and the processes which led to the mobility of As and other trace metals in the region are: (a) weathering of sulfide minerals, (b) oxidation of pyrite and/or arsenopyrite in mineralized areas and (c) desorption from hydrous ferric oxide (HFO) surfaces. In non-mining areas, volcanic ash is suggested to be a significant source of As.     

Optimal Perturbations Triggering Weather Regime Transitions: Onset of Blocking and Strong Zonal Flow

In this paper, the approach proposed by Mu and Jiang (2008) to obtain the optimal perturbations for triggering blocking (BL) onset is generalized to seek the optimal perturbations triggering onset of the strong zonal flow (SZF) regime. The BL and SZF regimes are characterized by the same dipole-like anomaly pattern superposed on the climatological flow, but with opposite sign. The results show that this method is also superior at finding the initial optimal perturbations triggering onset of the SZF regime, especially in the medium range. Furthermore, by comparing the two kinds of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations (CNOPs) trig-gering onset of BL and SZF regimes, we find that in the linear approximation, there is symmetry in the sensitivities for BL and SZF onset, and the perturbations that optimally trigger onset of BL and SZF regimes at times when linear approximation is valid are also characterized by the same spatial pattern but with opposite sign. Whereas when the optimization time is extended to 6 days, the two kinds of CNOPs lose their out-of-phase behavior. The nonlinearity results in an asymmetry between the sensitivity for BL and SZF onset. Additionally, we find that the optimal perturbations have one common property, which is that the second baroclinic mode contributes more to the initial perturbations while the barotropic mode dominates the final structures.     

基于VAD技术的迭代法在实测多普勒速度缺测区域的填补研究

多普勒天气雷达径向速度场缺测区域的存在是影响速度二次产品算法精确度的重要因素,在实际风场为线性分布的假设条件下,文中详细介绍了一种基于VAD技术的迭代填补技术.在合理考虑迭代约束条件的情况下,应用实测多普勒速度数据,根据缺测区域类型随机制造非连续累积10°-180°缺口的缺测区域和连续累积10°-180°缺口的缺测区域...