Climate change hotspots mapping: what have we learned?

In the past 5 years there has been a proliferation of efforts to map climate change “hotspots” — regions that are particularly vulnerable to current or future climate impacts, and where human security may be at risk. While some are academic exercises, many are produced with the goal of drawing policy maker attention to regions that are particularly susceptible to climate impacts, either to mitigate the risk of humanitarian crises or conflicts or to target adaptation assistance. Hotspots mapping efforts address a range of issues and sectors such as vulnerable populations, humanitarian crises, conflict, agriculture and food security, and water resources. This paper offers a timely assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of current hotspots mapping approaches with the goal of improving future efforts. It also highlights regions that are anticipated, based on combinations of high exposure, high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity, to suffer significant impacts from climate change.     

Countergradient Fluxes of Conserved Variables in the Clear convective and Stratocumulus-topped Boundary Layer: The role of the Entrainment Flux

Large-eddy simulations of a clear convective boundary layer (CBL)and a stratocumulus-topped boundary layer are studied. Bottom-upand a top-down scalars were included in the simulations, and theprinciple of linear superposition of variables was applied toreconstruct the fields of any arbitrary conserved variable.This approach allows a systematic analysis of countergradient fluxesas a function of the flux ratio, which is defined as the ratio betweenthe entrainment flux and the surface flux of the conserved quantity.In general, the turbulent flux of an arbitrary conserved quantityis counter to the mean vertical gradient if the heights where thevertical flux and the mean vertical gradient change sign do notcoincide. The regime where the flux is countergradient is thereforebounded by the so-called zero-flux and zero-gradient heights. Becausethe vertical flux changes sign only if the entrainment flux has anopposite sign to the surface flux, countergradient fluxes arepredominantly found for negative flux ratios. In the CBL the fluxratio for the virtual potential temperature is, to a good approximation,constant, and equal to -0.2. Only if the moisture contribution to thevirtual potential temperature is negligibly small will the flux ratio forthe potential temperature be equal to this value. Otherwise, theflux ratio for the potential temperature can have any arbitrary(negative) value, and, as a consequence, the fluxes for thepotential temperature and the virtual potential temperature willbe countergradient at different heights. As a practical application ofthe results, vertical profiles of the countergradient correction termfor different entrainment-to-surface-flux ratios are discussed.     

The intracloud/cloud-to-ground lightning ratio in Southeastern Brazil

The intracloud to cloud-to-ground lightning flash ratio (Z) has been estimated for the first time in Southeastern Brazil and in the tropical region using the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and Brazilian lightning detection network (BrasilDat) lightning data obtained from 1999 to 2005. Geographical variations of Z and their relation to elevation, latitude, precipitation, total lightning density and percentage of positive CG lightning will be discussed. Daily variations of Z will also be presented. The results suggest that Z values are similar to studies outside the tropics and that are influenced by orographic features.     

Holocene climate variability as derived from alkenone sea surface temperature and coupled ocean-atmosphere model experiments

Holocene climate modes are identified by the statistical analysis of reconstructed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from the tropical and North Atlantic regions. The leading mode of Holocene SST variability in the tropical region indicates a rapid warming from the early to mid Holocene followed by a relatively weak warming during the late Holocene. The dominant mode of the North Atlantic region SST captures the transition from relatively warm (cold) conditions in the eastern North Atlantic and the western Mediterranean Sea (the northern Red Sea) to relatively cold (warm) conditions in these regions from the early to late Holocene. This pattern of Holocene SST variability resembles the signature of the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation (AO/NAO). The second mode of both tropical and North Atlantic regions captures a warming towards the mid Holocene and a subsequent cooling. The dominant modes of Holocene SST variability emphasize enhanced variability around 2300 and 1000 years. The leading mode of the coupled tropical-North Atlantic Holocene SST variability shows that an increase of tropical SST is accompanied by a decrease of SST in the eastern North Atlantic. An analogy with the instrumental period as well as the analysis of a long-term integration of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model suggest that the AO/NAO is one dominant mode of climate variability at millennial time scales.     

Identifying Key Sources of Uncertainty in Climate Change Projections

What sources of uncertainty shouldbe included in climate change projections and whatgains can be made if specific sources of uncertaintyare reduced through improved research?DIALOGUE, anintegrated assessment model, has been used to answerthese questions. Central in the approach of DIALOGUEis the concept of parallel modeling, i.e., for eachstep in the chain from emissions to climate change anumber of equivalent models areimplemented. The followingconclusions are drawn:The key source of uncertainty in global temperatureprojections appears to be the uncertainty inradiative forcing models. Within this group ofmodels uncertainty within aerosol forcing models isabout equal to the total forcing of greenhouse gasmodels. In the latter group CO₂ is dominant.The least important source of uncertainty appears tobe the gas cycle models. Within this group of modelsthe role of carbon cycle models is dominant.Uncertainty in global temperature projections hasnot been treated consistently in the literature.First, uncertainty should be calculated as a productof all uncertainty sources. Second, aparticular choice of a base year for global warmingcalculations influences the ranking of uncertainty.Because of this, a comparison of ranking resultsacross different studies is hampered. We argue that`pre-Industrial' is the best choice for studies onuncertainty.There is a linear relationship between maximumuncertainty in the year 2100 and cumulativeemissions of CO₂ over the period 1990–2100:higher emissions lead to more uncertainty.     

Structural softening,mesh dependence,and regularisation in non-associated plastic flow

A severe dependence of numerical simulations on the mesh density is usually attributed to the presence of strain softening in the constitutive relation. However, other material instabilities, like non-associated plastic flow, can also cause mesh sensitivity. Indeed, loss of ellipticity in quasi-static analyses is the fundamental cause of the observed mesh dependence. It has been known since long that non-associated plastic flow can cause loss of ellipticity, but the consequence for mesh sensitivity, and subsequently, for the difficulty of the equilibrium-finding iterative procedure to converge have remained largely unnoticed. We first demonstrate at the hand of a biaxial test structural softening and a marked mesh dependence for an ideally plastic material equipped with a non-associated flow rule. The phenomena are then analysed in depth using an infinitely long shear layer. Finally, it is shown that the mesh effect disappears when the standard continuum model is replaced by a Cosserat continuum, a well-known regularisation method for strain-softening constitutive relations.     

Quantum Instability of Magnetized Stellar Objects

The equations of state for degenerate electron and neutron gases are studied in the presence of magnetic fields. After including quantum effects in the investigation of the structural properties of these systems, it is found that some hypermagnetized stars can be unstable according to the criterion of stability of pressures. Highly magnetized white dwarfs should collapse producing a supernova type Ia, while superstrong magnetized neutron stars cannot stand their own magnetic field and must implode, too. A comparison of our results with a set of the available observational data of some compact stars is also presented, and the agreement between this theory and observations is verified.