Atmospheric stabilization and the timing of carbon mitigation

Stabilization of atmospheric CO₂ concentrations below a pre-industrial doubling (~550 ppm) is a commonly cited target in climate policy assessment. When the rate at which future emissions can fall is assumed to be fixed, the peak atmospheric concentration – or the stabilization “frontier” – is an increasing and convex function of the length of postponement. Here we find that a decline in emissions of 1% year^?1 beginning today would place the frontier near 475 ppm and that when mitigation is postponed, options disappear (on average) at the rate of ~9 ppm year^?1, meaning that delays of more than a decade will likely preclude stabilization below a doubling. When constraints on the future decline rate of emissions are relaxed, a particular atmospheric target can be realized in many ways, with scenarios that allow longer postponement of emissions reductions requiring greater increases in the intensity of future mitigation. However, the marginal rate of substitution between future mitigation and present delay becomes prohibitively large when the balance is shifted too far toward the future, meaning that some amount of postponement cannot be fully offset by simply increasing the intensity of future mitigation. Consequently, these results suggest that a practical transition path to a given stabilization target in the most commonly cited range can allow, at most, one or two decades of delay.     

Ecological assessments of the coral reef communities in the Eastern Caribbean and the effects of herbivory in influencing coral juvenile density and algal cover

Caribbean reefs have been unevenly surveyed, with many areas lacking baseline data. In this study, the current status of Orbicella reefs, a structurally complex forereef habitat, was quantified in an understudied region, the Eastern Caribbean. During 2011 the same observers surveyed benthic assemblages, coral juvenile density, herbivorous fishes, and invertebrates at 30 Orbicella reefs in four Eastern Caribbean areas: Antigua, Barbados, St Lucia, and St Vincent and the Grenadines (hereafter St Vincent). Not all Orbicella forereefs were functionally the same in the Eastern Caribbean. Benthic communities and herbivorous fishes varied greatly among islands. Hard coral had the highest overall percent cover on most reefs in this study, with an average cover of 22%, and was greater than fleshy macroalgal cover at 83% of the sites. Overall, coral juvenile density was low but was positively associated with higher densities of Diadema antillarum, highlighting the importance of herbivory on the reefs. Nearshore coral reefs in Barbados were in a better state than other areas, exhibiting higher coral cover dominated by spawning corals, higher densities of coral juveniles exhibiting higher coral cover dominated by spawning corals, higher densities of coral juveniles and D. antillarum. Low biomass of herbivorous fishes at a majority of the coral reef sites is of major concern for the functioning of these reefs. Conservation of parrotfishes and other herbivores is necessary given the abundance of algae on most of these reefs and the beneficial effect of their presence on coral juveniles. This is the first comprehensive study that compares the state of Orbicella reefs in the Eastern Caribbean, providing valuable information that will be useful in creating realistic targets for future management and conservation.     

Seismic evidence for the preservation of several stacked Pleistocene coastal barrier/lagoon systems on the Gulf of Valencia continental shelf (western Mediterranean)

The focus of this study is the analysis of coastal sand barriers and associated coastal lagoons on the inner continental shelf of the Gulf of Valencia (western Mediterranean), based on two W–E seismic profiles recorded seaward of the Albufera de Valencia coastal lagoon. Seismic facies identified include a number of coastal sand barriers with landward lagoons draped by contemporary continental shelf deposits. The barrier systems have been grouped into two sedimentary systems tracts, the older one corresponding to a prograding/aggrading highstand systems tract involving at least four paleo-coastal sand barrier/lagoon systems, followed landward by a transgressive systems tract comprising three such systems. All the systems have been allocated a Tyrrhenian age, the formation of individual barrier systems having been associated with successive sea-level stillstands, and their present-day position being explained by the very high regional subsidence rate. In summary, this study demonstrates that the Quaternary stratigraphic record of the Gulf of Valencia inner continental shelf is composed of littoral sand facies, in particular coastal sand barrier and lagoon deposits. These findings are in agreement with corresponding observations on other continental shelves of the western Mediterranean, showing that the formation of coastal sand barriers was a characteristic feature of this region during the Quaternary.     

Development of regional future climate change scenarios in South America using the Eta CPTEC/HadCM3 climate change projections: climatology and regional analyses for the Amazon, S?o Francisco and the Paraná River basins

The objective of this study is to assess the climate projections over South America using the Eta-CPTEC regional model driven by four members of an ensemble of the Met Office Hadley Centre Global Coupled climate model HadCM3. The global model ensemble was run over the twenty-first century according to the SRES A1B emissions scenario, but with each member having a different climate sensitivity. The four members selected to drive the Eta-CPTEC model span the sensitivity range in the global model ensemble. The Eta-CPTEC model nested in these lateral boundary conditions was configured with a 40-km grid size and was run over 1961–1990 to represent baseline climate, and 2011–2100 to simulate possible future changes. Results presented here focus on austral summer and winter climate of 2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100 periods, for South America and for three major river basins in Brazil. Projections of changes in upper and low-level circulation and the mean sea level pressure (SLP) fields simulate a pattern of weakening of the tropical circulation and strengthening of the subtropical circulation, marked by intensification at the surface of the Chaco Low and the subtropical highs. Strong warming (4–6°C) of continental South America increases the temperature gradient between continental South America and the South Atlantic. This leads to stronger SLP gradients between continent and oceans, and to changes in moisture transport and rainfall. Large rainfall reductions are simulated in Amazonia and Northeast Brazil (reaching up to 40%), and rainfall increases around the northern coast of Peru and Ecuador and in southeastern South America, reaching up to 30% in northern Argentina. All changes are more intense after 2040. The Precipitation–Evaporation (P–E) difference in the A1B downscaled scenario suggest water deficits and river runoff reductions in the eastern Amazon and S?o Francisco Basin, making these regions susceptible to drier conditions and droughts in the future.     

Molecular and isotopic characterization of organic samples from the wreck of the Saint-Etienne merchant ship (XVIIIth century): Identification of pitch,fat, hair and sulfur

The wreck U Pezzo, excavated within the Saint Florent Gulf in northern Corsica was identified as the pink, Saint Etienne, a merchant ship which sank on January 31, 1769. In order to determine the composition of organic materials used to coat the hull or to waterproof different parts of the pink, a study of several samples, using molecular biomarker and carbon isotopic analysis, was initiated. The results revealed that the remarkable yellow coat, covering the outside planks of the ship’s bottom under the water line, is composed of sulfur, tallow (of ox and not of cetacean origin) and black pitch which corresponds to a mixture called “couroi” or “stuff”. Onboard ropes had been submitted to a tarring treatment with pitch. Hairs mixed with pitch were identified in samples collected between the two layers of the hull or under the sheathing planking. The study also provides a key model for weathering of pitch, as different degrees of degradation were found between the surface and the heart of several samples. Accordingly, molecular parameters for alteration were proposed. Furthermore novel mixed esters between terpenic and diterpenic alcohols and the free major fatty acids (C_14:0, C_16:0, C_18:0) were detected in the yellow coat.     

A multi-method approach for the characterization of landslides in an intramontane basin in the Andes (Loja,Ecuador)

In the last several decades, population growth in the cities of the Andes has caused urban areas to expand into landslide-prone areas. Fatal landslides affecting urban settlements are especially frequent in cities located in the Neogene intramontane basins of the Andes. These basins have similar situations and include geographical and geological features that frequently generate ground instabilities. We studied the characteristics of the mass movements observed in these basins by carrying out a detailed analysis of four landslides that have occurred in the Loja Basin (Ecuador). This multi-method study integrated geophysical, geotechnical methods, mineralogical studies and analyses of precipitation time series. Our study characterizes the slope movements as active, slow-moving, complex earthslide earthflows. According to Differential GPS measurements, these landslides move at velocities of up to several metres per year. Electrical resistivity tomography profiles show that most of the landslides are mainly surficial. Time-series analyses of precipitation reveal that rainfall events that are not exceptionally intensive can reactivate these landslides. This characteristic and the development of these landslides on low-gradient slopes are explained using the results obtained from the geotechnical and mineralogical analyses. We find that the smectite clay minerals detected in the mobilized geological formations, combined with the tropical climate of the northern Andean region, induce the observed weak slope stability conditions. The conceptual model for the studied landslides may aid in assessing landslide-prone areas in Loja and other Neogene intramontane basins of the Andes and can help to mitigate the associated risks.     

Expression of the Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event: New insights from a Swiss transect

A sedimentological, biostratigraphical and geochemical (stable isotopes and Rock‐Eval parameters) analysis was performed on four Swiss successions, in order to examine the expression of the Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event along a north–south transect, from the Jura through the Alpine Tethys (Sub‐Briançonnais and Lombardian basins). The locations were selected to represent a range of palaeoceanographic positions from an epicontinental sea to a more open marine setting. The Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event was recognized by the presence of the characteristic negative carbon‐isotope excursion in carbonate (ca 2 to 4‰) and organic matter (ca 4 to 5‰) at the base of the falciferum ammonite Zone (NJT6 nannofossil Zone). The sedimentary expression of the Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event varies along the transect from laminated mudstone rich in total organic carbon (≤11 wt.%) in the Jura, to thin‐bedded marl (≤5 wt.% total organic carbon) in the Sub‐Briançonnais Basin and to hemipelagic reddish marly limestone (total organic carbon <0·05 wt.%) in equivalent levels from the Lombardian Basin. The carbon‐isotope excursion is thus independent of facies and palaeoceanographic position. The low nannofossil abundance and the peak in Calyculaceae in the Jura and the Sub‐Briançonnais Basin indicate low salinity surface waters and stratified water masses in general. Sedimentological observations (for example, obliquely‐bedded laminae and homogeneous mud layers containing rip‐up clasts) indicate the presence of dynamic conditions, suggesting that water mass stratification was episodically disrupted during the Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event. The proposed correlation highlights a stratigraphic gap and/or condensed interval between the Pliensbachian–Toarcian boundary and the Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event interval (most of the tenuicostatum ammonite Zone is missing), which is also observed in coeval European sections and points to the influence of sea‐level change and current dynamics. This transect shows that the sedimentary expression of the Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event is not uniform across the Alpine Tethys, supporting the importance of local conditions in determining how this event is recorded across different palaeoceanographic settings.     

Sulfide variation in the pore and surface waters of artificial salt-marsh ditches and a natural tidal creek

Pore and surface water sulfide variation near artificial ditches and a natural creek are examined in salt marshes bordering the Indian River Lagoon in east-central Florida. Pore water sulfide concentrations ranged from 0 μg-at I^?1 to 1,640 μg-at I^?1. On average, the natural creek had the lowest sulfide concentrations (mean <1.0 μ-at I^?1) and the perimeter ditch of a managed salt marsh impoundment the highest (436.5 μg-at I^?1). There was a trend of increasing sulfide concentration in the summer, and sharp peaks in late fall-early winter which correspond with peak litter input into the sediments. Significant differences in sulfide concentration between sites are attributed to differences in water flow and in organic matter content. Delaying the seasonal opening of culverts (which connect impounded marshes with the lagoon) until lagoon water levels rise in fall may prevent massive fish kills that have been associated with high sulfide levels in the impoundment perimeter ditches.     

Structure and dynamics of mangrove forests along a flooding gradient

The zonation patterns ofAvicennia bicolor andRhizophora racemosa were studied in a mangrove forest on the Pacific Coast of Costa Rica. Comparisons were made between the establishment, survival, and growth of both species in three plots, 1 ha each, located along the flooding gradient. Based on cohort analysis and reciprocal planting observations, it was concluded that species zonation was primarily regulated by the depth of tidal inundation and the differential ability of the propagules to become established. However, tidal sorting was not the only operative factor related to inundation. Drought and probably high soil salinities limited the survival and growth ofR. racemosa in the landward sections of the forest. Tidal sorting, however, confined propagules to zones where they probably had the highest likelihood of contributing to another generation.