Modeling the low-latitude ionospheric electron density and plasma turbulence in the November 2004 storm period

The storm period of 8–12 November 2004 offers an opportunity for insight into the phenomena of low-latitude ionospheric structure during geomagnetically disturbed times because of the strength of the disturbances, the timing of the storms, and the instrumentation that was operating during the interval. We will take advantage of these factors to model the ambient ionosphere and the plasma turbulence responsible for radio scintillation within it, using the AFRL low-latitude ambient/turbulent ionospheric model and the storm-time model features described in the companion paper [Retterer, J.M., Kelley, M.C., 2009. Solar-wind drivers for low-latitude ionospheric models during geomagnetic storms. J. Atmos. Solar-Terr. Phys., this issue]. The model plasma densities show very good agreement with the densities measured by the Jicamarca ISR as well as with the total electron content (TEC) measured by the Boston College South American chain of GPS receivers. The detection by the radar of coherent returns from plasma turbulence match well the times of predicted ionospheric instability. The predicted geographic extent of the occurrence of equatorial plasma bubbles was matched by DMSP satellite observations and our forecasts of scintillation strength were validated with measurements of S4 at Ancon and Antofagasta by stations of the AFRL SCINDA network.     

Hydrostratigraphic framework and hydrogeological behaviour of the Mancha Oriental System (SE Spain)

The Mancha Oriental System (MOS) has a surface area of 7,260 km², making it one of the largest carbonate aquifer systems in Spain. The system sustains about 1,000 km² of irrigated crops and supplies groundwater to 275,000 inhabitants. The economic transformation brought about by the development of extensive irrigated cropland has led to a water-balance disequilibrium of about 75 million m³/year. This input–output deficit has negative consequences in the quantity and quality of the available resources, in the river–aquifer relationship, and in the associated ecosystems as well. To understand the hydrogeological behaviour of the system, it is necessary to design a conceptual model. Further, the conceptualisation of a groundwater flow system is a requirement of the European Water Framework Directive for the characterisation of groundwater bodies. The robustness of the conceptual model depends heavily on the user capability of representing the real system. In this work, a multidisciplinary approach has been used to represent the three-dimensional geological framework and the groundwater flow conceptualisation of the MOS. Data management and three-dimensional visualisation have been carried out by means of geographical information system (GIS) tools and software for contouring and three-dimensional surface mapping.     

Comparison of ground motions from the 2010 Mw 7.2 El Mayor–Cucapah earthquake with the next generation attenuation ground motion prediction equations

A total of 144 free-field ground motions with closest site-to-rupture distances (R_rup) less than 200 km recorded during the 2010 M_w 7.2 El Mayor–Cucapah earthquake are used to investigate predictive capabilities of the next generation attenuation (NGA) ground-motion prediction equations (GMPE). The NGA GMPEs underpredict observed spectral accelerations at sites with shear wave velocity in the upper 30 m of the site (V_s30) between 180 and 366 m/s with R_rup from about 10 to 50 km and overpredict at sites with R_rup from about 50 to 200 km. Intra-event residuals of the NGA GMPEs exhibit a noticeable negative trend for peak ground acceleration and 0.3, 1.0, and 2.0 s periods. Comparison of the inter-event residual between the 2010 M_w 7.2 El Mayor–Cucapah earthquake and the NGA dataset reveals that short-period inter-event residuals from the 2010 M_w 7.2 El Mayor–Cucapah earthquake is within the scatter of inter-event residuals from the NGA dataset but long-period inter-event residuals do not appear within of the scatter of inter-event residuals from the NGA dataset. Spectral accelerations predicted by the NGA GMPEs are generally unbiased against V_s30 and periods of less than 4.0 s. Observed spectral accelerations show a stronger V_s30 dependence for both short and long periods compared with the NGA GMPEs. The Boore and Atkinson (Earthq Spectra 24(1):99–138, 2008) and Chiou and Youngs (Earthq Spectra 24(1):173–215, 2008) GMPEs perform better in predicting observed short-period spectral accelerations at the sites with V_s30 between 180 and 250 m/s than the Abrahamson and Silva (Earthq Spectra 24(1):67–97, 2008) and Campbell and Bozorgnia (Earthq Spectra 24(1):139–171, 2008) GMPEs.     

Residual drift demands in moment‐resisting steel frames subjected to narrow‐band earthquake ground motions

This paper presents the main results of the evaluation of residual inter‐story drift demands in typical moment‐resisting steel buildings designed accordingly to the Mexican design practice when subjected to narrow‐band earthquake ground motions. Analytical 2D‐framed models representative of the study‐case buildings were subjected to a set of 30 narrow‐band earthquake ground motions recorded on stations placed in soft‐soil sites of Mexico City, where most significant structural damage was found in buildings as a consequence of the 1985 Michoacan earthquake, and scaled to reach several levels of intensity to perform incremental dynamic analyses. Thus, results were statistically processed to obtain hazard curves of peak (maximum) and residual drift demands for each frame model. It is shown that the study‐case frames might exhibit maximum residual inter‐story drift demands in excess of 0.5%, which is perceptible for building's occupants and could cause human discomfort, for a mean annual rate of exceedance associated to peak inter‐story drift demands of about 3%, which is the limiting drift to avoid collapse prescribed in the 2004 Mexico City Seismic Design Provisions. The influence of a member's post‐yield stiffness ratio and material overstrength in the evaluation of maximum residual inter‐story drift demands is also discussed. Finally, this study introduces response transformation factors, T_p, that allow establishing residual drift limits compatible with the same mean annual rate of exceedance of peak inter‐story drift limits for future seismic design/evaluation criteria that take into account both drift demands for assessing a building's seismic performance. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Chemical and isotopic assessment of surface water–shallow groundwater interaction in the arid Grande river basin,North-Central Chile

ABSTRACT

This paper analyses the composition of surface water and shallow groundwater in the Grande River basin, North-Central Chile, using this information to characterize water interactions. Chemical and isotopic data for surface water and groundwater (7 and 6 sampling locations, respectively) were obtained from three sampling campaigns performed in March–April (autumn), August–September (late winter) and December (early summer) 2012. Precipitation samples were also collected. Data was processed using spatial distribution charts, Piper and Stiff diagrams, and multivariate analysis. In general, the results for each method converge on a high degree of connectivity between surface water and shallow groundwater in the study area. Furthermore, approximately a 10% of groundwater contribution to the surface flow discharge was estimated for a particular reach. This multi-method approach was useful for the characterization of surface water–groundwater interactions in the Grande River basin, and may become a suitable and replicable scheme for studies in arid and semi-arid basins facing similar water management challenges.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor B. Dewals     

The contrasted evolution of high and low flows and precipitation indices in the Duero basin (Spain)

Abstract

Trends in high and low flows are valuable indicators of hydrological change because they highlight changes in various parts of the frequency distribution of streamflow series. This enables improved assessment of water availability in regions with high seasonal and inter-annual variability. There has been a substantial reduction in water resources in the Duero basin (Iberian Peninsula, Spain) and other areas of the Mediterranean region during the last 50 years, and this is likely to continue because of climate change. In this study, we investigated the evolution and trends in high and low flows in the Spanish part of the Duero basin, and in equivalent or closely-related precipitation indices for the period 1961–2005. The results showed a general trend of decrease in the frequency and magnitude of high flows throughout most of the basin. Moreover, the number of days with low flows significantly increased over this period. No clear relationship was evident between the evolution of high/low flows and changes in the distribution frequencies of the precipitation series. In contrast to what was expected, the number of days with heavy precipitation and the mean annual precipitation did not show significant trends across the basin, and the number of days without rainfall decreased slightly. The divergence between precipitation and runoff evolution was more accentuated in spring and summer. In the absence of trends in precipitation, it is possible that reforestation processes in the region, and increasing temperatures in recent decades, could be related to the decreasing frequency of high flows and the increasing frequency of low flows.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor S. Grimaldi

Citation Morán-Tejeda, E., López-Moreno, J.I., Vicente-Serrano, S.M., Lorenzo-Lacruz, J. and Ceballos-Barbancho, A., 2012. The contrasted evolution of high and low flows and precipitation indices in the Duero basin (Spain). Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (4), 591–611.     

Upper Pleistocene to Holocene peatland evolution in Southern Brazilian highlands as depicted by radar stratigraphy,sedimentology and palynology

Paleoenvironmental interpretation of proxy data derived from peatlands is largely based upon an evolutionary model for ombrotrophic bogs, in which peat accumulates in still environments. Reports on proxies obtained from minerotrophic fens, where hydrologic inputs are variable, are less common. In this study, a highland peatland in southern Brazil is presented through ground penetrating radar (GPR) and sedimentological, palynological and geochronologic data. The radar stratigraphic interpretation suggests a relatively complex history of erosion and deposition at the site since the beginning of Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3) interstadial period. In spite of this, radar stratigraphic and palynologic interpretations converge. Electromagnetic reflections tend to group in clusters that show lateral coherence and correlate with different sediment types, while pollen grains abound and are well preserved. As a result, the study of minerotrophic fens provides a source of proxies, suggesting that ombrotrophic bogs are not the only reliable source of data in wetlands for palynological analysis.     

Sixty thousand years of magmatic volatile history before the caldera-forming eruption of Mount Mazama, Crater Lake, Oregon

The well-documented eruptive history of Mount Mazama, Oregon, provides an excellent opportunity to use pre-eruptive volatile concentrations to study the growth of an explosive silicic magmatic system. Melt inclusions (MI) hosted in pyroxene and plagioclase crystals from eight dacitic–rhyodacitic eruptive deposits (71–7.7?ka) were analyzed to determine variations in volatile-element concentrations and changes in magma storage conditions leading up to and including the climactic eruption of Crater Lake caldera. Temperatures (Fe–Ti oxides) increased through the series of dacites, then decreased, and increased again through the rhyodacites (918–968 to ~950 to 845–895?°C). Oxygen fugacity began at nickel–nickel-oxide buffer (NNO) +0.8 (71?ka), dropped slightly to NNO +0.3, and then climbed to its highest value with the climactic eruption (7.7?ka) at NNO +1.1 log units. In parallel with oxidation state, maximum MI sulfur concentrations were high early in the eruptive sequence (~500?ppm), decreased (to ~200?ppm), and then increased again with the climactic eruption (~500?ppm). Maximum MI sulfur correlates with the Sr content (as a proxy for LREE, Ba, Rb, P₂O₅) of recharge magmas, represented by basaltic andesitic to andesitic enclaves and similar-aged lavas. These results suggest that oxidized Sr-rich recharge magmas dominated early and late in the development of the pre-climactic dacite–rhyodacite system. Dissolved H₂O concentrations in MI do not, however, correlate with these changes in dominant recharge magma, instead recording vapor solubility relations in the developing shallow magma storage and conduit region. Dissolved H₂O concentrations form two populations through time: the first at 3–4.6 wt% (with a few extreme values up to 6.1 wt%) and the second at ≤2.4 wt%. CO₂ concentrations measured in a subset of these inclusions reach up to 240?ppm in early-erupted deposits (71?ka) and are below detection in climactic deposits (7.7?ka). Combined H₂O and CO₂ concentrations and solubility models indicate a dominant storage region at 4–7?km (up to 12?km), with drier inclusions that diffusively re-equilibrated and/or were trapped at shallower depths. Boron and Cl (except in the climactic deposit) largely remained in the melt, suggesting vapor–melt partition coefficients and gas fractions were low. Modeled Li, F, and S vapor–melt partition coefficients are higher than those of B and Cl. The decrease in maximum MI CO₂ concentration following the earliest dacitic eruptions is interpreted to result from a broadening of the shallow storage region to greater than the diameter of subjacent feeders, so that greater proportions of reservoir magma were to the side of CO₂-bearing vapor bubbles ascending vertically from the locus of recharge magma injection, thereby escaping recarbonation by streaming vapor bubbles. The Mazama melt inclusions provide a picture of a growing magma storage region, where chemical variations in melt and magma occur due to changes in the nature and supply rate of magma recharge, the timing of degassing, and the possible degree of equilibration with gases from below.     

Sources and behavior of arsenic and trace elements in groundwater and surface water in the Poopó Lake Basin,Bolivian Altiplano

Water management in semiarid and arid catchments such as the Poopó Lake Basin requires improved understanding of the complex behavior of the various contaminants, which affect the drinking water quality and considered as crucial for sustainable development of the region. Mechanisms of arsenic (As) release in the surface and groundwater were studied. Hydrochemical data for surface water (4 samples) and groundwater (28 samples) were collected in a small watershed in the Poopó catchment at the highland of the Bolivian Andes (Altiplano). All of them show high electrical conductivity values and moderately oxidizing conditions. The surface water contains high concentration of sulfate and the trace elements As, Zn and Pb in the zone affected by acid mine drainage. There is a large variability of the concentration of As and of the trace elements in the groundwater in the five different regions within the Poopó catchment. The metal concentrations sensitive to changes of redox state and results of speciation modeling suggest that As (V) is a predominant aqueous species, which conforms to the prevailing oxidizing conditions in the shallow groundwater environment. Two generalized trends for As distribution were identified in groundwater: (a) high concentrations are found in the arid zone (100–250 μg/L) in the southern (region III) and in the northwestern (region V) regions, and (b) low concentrations (<50 μg/L) are found in the remaining part of the basin (region I, II and IV). However, the spatial distribution within these regions needs to be investigated further. A conclusion from the present study is that there are multiple sources of As as well as other trace elements (such as Cd, Mn and Zn) in the Poopó Lake Basin. Among the sources and the processes which led to the mobility of As and other trace metals in the region are: (a) weathering of sulfide minerals, (b) oxidation of pyrite and/or arsenopyrite in mineralized areas and (c) desorption from hydrous ferric oxide (HFO) surfaces. In non-mining areas, volcanic ash is suggested to be a significant source of As.     

Predictability of the spring rainfall in Northwestern Iberian Peninsula from sea surfaces temperature of ENSO areas

The influence of sea surface temperature (SST) of the ocean on seasonal rainfall in Northwestern Iberian Peninsula is studied for the period 1951–2006. Seasonal correlations were calculated for all seasons and different lags applied on SST. A test for field-significance considering the properties of finiteness and interdependence of the spatial grid was applied to avoid correlations by chance. The most significant and repetitive correlation is found between SST over Equatorial Pacific and spring rainfall. The correlation is maintained for different lags, and the common area that satisfies the criteria for statistical field significance is coincident with ENSO area. A forecast scheme is developed to predict spring rainfall anomalies based in SST over ENSO area in precedent seasons. An analysis of principal components was also carried out to obtain the main modes of the Pacific Ocean and their influence on spring rainfall in NWIP. This study concludes that for the period 1951–2006 the negative phase of ENSO, “La Niña”, almost always announces dry springs in NW Iberian Peninsula. However, the positive phase of ENSO, “El Niño”, does not anticipate the appearance of wet springs.