Probabilistic model for eruptions and associated flood events in the Katla caldera,Iceland

Eruptions in the subglacial Katla caldera, South Iceland, release catastrophic jokulhlaups (meltwater floods). The ice surface topography divides the caldera into three drainage sectors (Ko, So and En sectors) that drain onto Myrdalssandur, Solheimasandur and Markarfljot plains, respectively. In historical times, floods from the Ko sector have been dominant, with only two recorded So events. Geological records indicate that floods from the En sector occur every 500–800 years. A probabilistic model for an eruption is formulated in general terms by a stochastic parameter that simulates a series giving the time interval in years between two consecutive events. The model also contains a Markovian matrix that controls the location of the event and thereby what watercourse is hit by the flood. A record of Katla eruptions since the 8th and the 9th century a.d., and geological information of volcanogenic floods towards the west over the last 8,000 years is used to calibrate the model. The model is then used to find the probabilities for floods from the three sectors: Ko, So and En. The simulations predict that the most probable eruption interval for the En sector and the So sector is several times smaller than the average time interval, implying infrequent periods of high activity in these sectors. A correlation is found between the magnitude of eruptions and the following time intervals. Using the statistical approach and considering this magnitude–time interval correlation, the probability of an eruption in Katla volcano is considered to be 20% within the next 10 years. This compares to a probability of 93% if only a simple average is considered. These probabilities do not take account of long-term eruption precursors and should therefore be regarded as minimum values.     

The expectation of future precipitation change over the Mediterranean region is different from what we observe

In this study we assess the role of anthropogenic forcing (greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols, GS) in recently observed precipitation trends over the Mediterranean region. We investigate whether the observed precipitation trends (1966–2005 and 1979–2008) are consistent with what 22 models project as response of precipitation to GS forcing. Significance is estimated using 9,000-year control runs derived from the CMIP3 archive. The results indicate that externally forced changes are detectable in observed precipitation trends in winter, late summer and in autumn. Natural internal climate variability cannot explain these changes. However, the observed trends (derived from 3 sources) are markedly inconsistent with expected changes due to GS forcing. While the influence of GS signal is detectable in winter and early spring, observed changes are several times larger than the projected response to GS forcing. The most striking inconsistency, however, is the contradiction between projected drying and the observed increase in precipitation in late summer and autumn, irrespective of the data set used. Natural (internal) variability as estimated from the models cannot account for these inconsistencies, which are already present in the large scale circulation patterns (Geopotential height at 500 hPa). The obtained results are robust to the removal of the fingerprint of the North Atlantic Oscillation. The detection of an outright sign mismatch of observed and projected trends in autumn and late summer, leads us to conclude that the recently observed trends can not be used as an illustration of plausible future expected change in the Mediterranean region. These significant shortcomings in our understanding of recent observed changes complicate communication of future expected changes in Mediterranean precipitation.     

Allogenic and autogenic processes combined in the formation of shallow-water carbonate sequences (Middle Berriasian,Swiss and French Jura Mountains)

Sediment production and accumulation on shallow carbonate platforms are controlled by allogenic, externally controlled processes (such as sea level, climate, and/or platform-wide subsidence patterns) as well as by autogenic factors that are inherent to the sedimentary system (such as lateral migration of sediment bodies). The challenge is to determine how and in which proportion these processes interacted to create the observed sedimentary record. Here, a case study of Middle Berriasian, shallow-marine carbonates of the Swiss and French Jura Mountains is presented. Based on vertical facies evolution and bedding surfaces, different orders of depositional sequences (elementary, small-scale, medium-scale) have been identified in the studied sections. The hierarchical stacking pattern of these sequences and the time span represented by the investigated interval imply that eustatic sea-level fluctuations in the Milankovitch frequency band were an important controlling factor. The small-scale and medium-scale sequences relate to the 100 and 400-kyr orbital eccentricity cycles, respectively. The elementary sequences are attributed to the 20-kyr precession cycle. Differential subsidence additionally produced accommodation changes. The present study focuses on one specific small-scale sequence situated at the base of the transgressive systems tract of large-scale sequence Be4, which is identified also in other European basins. This small-scale sequence has been logged in detail at eight different outcrops in the Jura Mountains. Detailed facies analysis reveals that different depositional environments (tidal flats, internal lagoons, open lagoons, carbonate sand shoals) were juxtaposed and evolved through time, often shifting position on the platform. The boundaries of the small-scale (100-kyr) sequence can be followed over the entire study area and thus must have formed through predominantly allogenic processes (eustatic sea-level fall, the effect of which was locally modified by differential subsidence). In two sections, five well-developed elementary sequences constitute the small-scale sequence. In the other sections, the identification of elementary sequences often is difficult because sedimentation was dominated by autogenic processes that overruled the influence of sea-level fluctuations. In low-energy, tidal-flat and internal-lagoonal settings, orbitally induced sea-level changes were recorded more faithfully, while high-energy shoals were mainly submitted to autogenic processes and the allogenic signal is masked. Consequently, the studied Jura platform experienced a combination of auto- and allogenic processes, which created a complex facies mosaic and a complex stacking of depositional sequences. Nevertheless, the 100-kyr orbital signal was strong enough to create correlatable sequence boundaries. Within a 100-kyr sequence, however, the unambiguous definition of sequences related to the 20-kyr orbital cycle is often difficult and the prediction of their lateral or vertical facies evolution impossible.     

Uncertainty,cost-effectiveness and environmental safety of robust carbon trading: integrated approach

Carbon markets, like other commodity markets, are volatile. They react to stochastic “disequilibrium” spot prices, which may be affected by inadequate policies, speculations and bubbles. The market-based emission trading, therefore, does not necessarily minimize abatement costs and achieve emission reduction goals. We introduce a basic stochastic model integrating emissions reduction, monitoring and trading costs allowing us to analyze the robustness of emission and uncertainty reduction policies under environmental safety constraints asymmetric information and other multiple anthropogenic and natural uncertainties. Explicit treatment of uncertainties provides incentives for reducing them before trading. We illustrate functioning of the robust market with numerical results involving such countries as the US, Australia, Canada, Japan, EU27, Russia, Ukraine. In particular, we analyze if the knowledge about uncertainties may affect portfolios of technological and trade policies or structure of the market and how uncertainty characteristics may affect market prices and change the market structure.     

A Geographic Information System (GIS)-based approach for relating anthropogenic impact and environmental stress: a case study within the African Albertine Rift

This study introduces a potentially cost-effective methodology to assess habitat quality remotely using anthropogenic variables derived from both Geographic Information System (GIS) and remote sensing. We related anthropogenic impact to organism-level response across the Albertine Rift of East-Africa, which was measured using body condition (BC) in Lophuromys aquilus, the dark-coloured brush-furred rat. We chose seven variables to measure anthropogenic impact, ranging from land cover/land use to nighttime light radiance. Using a principal component analysis, we extracted four components that describe human impact and correlated each with BC. We documented that BC tended to be higher in more disturbed areas. We recommend this GIS-based methodology to relate anthropogenic impact to organismal-level response in the Albertine Rift region, and we provide broad guidelines for its application to assess habitat quality for species of conservation concern.     

Effect of fluid pressure distribution on the structural evolution of accretionary wedges

Numerical experiments on evolving accretionary wedges usually implement predefined weak basal décollements and constant strength parameters for overlying compressed sequences, although fluid pressure ratio, and therefore brittle strength, can vary strongly in sedimentary basins. A two‐dimensional finite difference model with a visco‐elasto‐plastic rheology is used to investigate the influence of different simplified fluid pressure ratio distributions on the structural evolution of accretionary wedge systems. Results show that a linear increase in fluid pressure ratio towards the base leads to toeward‐verging thrust sheets and underplating of strata, while simulations with a predefined décollement form conjugate shear zones supporting box‐fold‐type frontal accretion. Surface tapers are in agreement with the critical wedge theory, which here is modified for cases of varying fluid pressure ratio. Furthermore, the numerical results resemble findings from natural examples of accretionary wedges.     

A model of diffuse Galactic radio emission from 10 MHz to 100 GHz

Understanding diffuse Galactic radio emission is interesting both in its own right and for minimizing foreground contamination of cosmological measurements. cosmic microwave background experiments have focused on frequencies ≳10 GHz, whereas 21-cm tomography of the high-redshift universe will mainly focus on ≲0.2 GHz, for which less is currently known about Galactic emission. Motivated by this, we present a global sky model derived from all publicly available total power large-area radio surveys, digitized with optical character recognition when necessary and compiled into a uniform format, as well as the new Villa Elisa data extending the 1.42-GHz map to the entire sky. We quantify statistical and systematic uncertainties in these surveys by comparing them with various global multifrequency model fits. We find that a principal component based model with only three components can fit the 11 most accurate data sets (at 10, 22, 45 and 408 MHz and 1.42, 2.326, 23, 33, 41, 61, 94 GHz) to an accuracy around 1–10 per cent depending on frequency and sky region. Both our data compilation and our software returning a predicted all-sky map at any frequency from 10 MHz to 100 GHz are publicly available at http://space.mit.edu/home/angelica/gsm .     

Comparison of preparatory signal analysis techniques for consideration in the (post-)Kyoto policy process

Our study is a preparatory exercise. We focus on the analysis of uncertainty in greenhouse gas emission inventories. Inventory uncertainty is monitored, but not regulated, under the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Under the Convention, countries publish annual or periodic national inventories of greenhouse gas emissions and removals. Policymakers use these inventories to develop strategies and policies for emission reductions and to track the progress of these policies. However, greenhouse gas inventories contain uncertainty for a variety of reasons, and these uncertainties have important scientific and policy implications. For most countries, the emission changes agreed under the Protocol are of the same order of magnitude as the uncertainty that underlies their combined (carbon dioxide equivalent) emissions estimates. Here we apply and compare six available techniques to analyze the uncertainty in the emission changes that countries agreed to realize by the end of the Protocol’s first commitment period 2008–2012. Any such technique, if implemented, could “make or break” claims of compliance, especially in cases where countries claim fulfillment of their commitments to reduce or limit emissions. The techniques all perform differently and can thus have a different impact on the design and execution of emission control policies. A thorough comparison of the techniques has not yet been made but is needed when expanding the discussion on how to go about dealing with uncertainty under the Kyoto Protocol and its successor.     

Governance,complexity, and resilience

This special issue brings together prominent scholars to explore novel multilevel governance challenges posed by the behavior of dynamic and complex social-ecological systems. Here we expand and investigate the emerging notion of “resilience” as a perspective for understanding how societies can cope with, and develop from, disturbances and change. As the contributions to the special issue illustrate, resilience thinking in its current form contains substantial normative and conceptual difficulties for the analysis of social systems. However, a resilience approach to governance issues also shows a great deal of promise as it enables a more refined understanding of the dynamics of rapid, interlinked and multiscale change. This potential should not be underestimated as institutions and decision-makers try to deal with converging trends of global interconnectedness and increasing pressure on social-ecological systems.