Data mining methods for hydroclimatic forecasting

Skillful streamflow forecasts at seasonal lead times may be useful to water managers seeking to provide reliable water supplies and maximize hydrosystem benefits. In this study, a class of data mining techniques, known as tree-structured models, is investigated to address the nonlinear dynamics of climate teleconnections and screen promising probabilistic streamflow forecast models for river–reservoir systems. In a case study of the Lower Colorado River system in central Texas, a number of potential predictors are evaluated for forecasting seasonal streamflow, including large-scale climate indices related to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and others. Results show that the tree-structured models can effectively capture the nonlinear features hidden in the data. Skill scores of probabilistic forecasts generated by both classification trees and logistic regression trees indicate that seasonal inflows throughout the system can be predicted with sufficient accuracy to improve water management, especially in the winter and spring seasons in central Texas.     

Petrogenesis of Miller Range 07273, a new type of anomalous melt breccia: Implications for impact effects on the H chondrite asteroid

Miller Range 07273 is a chondritic melt breccia that contains clasts of equilibrated ordinary chondrite set in a fine‐grained (<5 μm), largely crystalline, igneous matrix. Data indicate that MIL was derived from the H chondrite parent asteroid, although it has an oxygen isotope composition that approaches but falls outside of the established H group. MIL also is distinctive in having low porosity, cone‐like shapes for coarse metal grains, unusual internal textures and compositions for coarse metal, a matrix composed chiefly of clinoenstatite and omphacitic pigeonite, and troilite veining most common in coarse olivine and orthopyroxene. These features can be explained by a model involving impact into a porous target that produced brief but intense heating at high pressure, a sudden pressure drop, and a slower drop in temperature. Olivine and orthopyroxene in chondrule clasts were the least melted and the most deformed, whereas matrix and troilite melted completely and crystallized to nearly strain‐free minerals. Coarse metal was largely but incompletely liquefied, and matrix silicates formed by the breakdown during melting of albitic feldspar and some olivine to form pyroxene at high pressure (>3 GPa, possibly to ~15–19 GPa) and temperature (>1350 °C, possibly to ≥2000 °C). The higher pressures and temperatures would have involved back‐reaction of high‐pressure polymorphs to pyroxene and olivine upon cooling. Silicates outside of melt matrix have compositions that were relatively unchanged owing to brief heating duration.     

A noble gas and cosmogenic radionuclide analysis of two ordinary chondrites from Almahata Sitta

Abstract– We present the results of a noble gas (He, Ne, Ar) and cosmogenic radionuclide (¹⁰Be, ²⁶Al, ³⁶Cl) analysis of two chondritic fragments (#A100, L4 and #25, H5) found in the Almahata Sitta strewn field in Sudan. We confirm their earlier attribution to the same fall as the ureilites dominating the strewn field, based on the following findings: (1) both chondrite samples indicate a preatmospheric radius of approximately 300 g cm^?2, consistent with the preatmospheric size of asteroid 2008 TC₃ that produced the Almahata Sitta strewn field; (2) both have, within error, a ²¹Ne/²⁶Al‐based cosmic ray exposure age of approximately 20 Ma, identical to the reported ages of Almahata Sitta ureilites; (3) both exhibit hints of ureilitic Ar in the trapped component. We discuss a possible earlier irradiation phase for the two fragments of approximately 10–20 Ma, visible only in cosmogenic ³⁸Ar. We also discuss the approximately 3.8 Ga (⁴He) and approximately 4.6 Ga (⁴⁰Ar) gas retention ages, measured in both chondritic fragments. These imply that the two chondrite fragments were incorporated into the ureilite host early in solar system evolution, and that the parent asteroid from which 2008 TC₃ is derived has not experienced a large break‐up event in the last 3.8 Ga.     

Site survey and assessment for the planned seismogeodynamic monitoring network in the Republic of Armenia

We present results of a detailed analysis of data obtained from seismic geodynamic field studies conducted at proposed sites for the development of advanced seismic monitoring stations in the Republic of Armenia. These studies aim to determine the background seismic and geodynamic noise level around such sites. Finally, based on the received data and international standards, nine survey points were classified into respective classes according to their noise level. We also calculated minimum significant earthquake magnitude detectable by the proposed seismic network in different regions of Armenia and mapped it based on recorded regional earthquakes. The resulting map indicates that the proposed seismic monitoring network will provide homogenous initial data for the various seismically active regions of the territory of the Republic of Armenia.     

The impact of freshwater discharges on the ocean circulation in the Skagerrak/northern North Sea area Part I: model validation

We assess the performance of an eddy-recognizing numerical ocean model in simulating the pattern and variability of the hydrography in the Skagerrak/northern North Sea area. The model we use is a version of the widely used Princeton ocean model employing a terrain-following vertical coordinate. Results from a series of five multi-year simulations of the mesoscale response are described. The simulations differ in their representation of the lateral freshwater supply to the model ocean of which the first is a reference simulation. The next four are variations in which the river discharges and/or the Baltic outflow are given more realistic representations. For validation, we have used in situ hydrographic data. A novelty is that we use the concepts of freshwater height and potential energy anomaly as objective validation tools. We find that, in general, the model faithfully reproduces many of the observed hydrographic features including their mean patterns and their variance. Not surprisingly, we find that the Baltic outflow is by far the most significant freshwater source in terms of its influence on the hydrography in the area, a result corroborating earlier findings. The best validation is obtained when all freshwater supply is made as realistic as possible, in particular the Baltic outflow. We also find that the large scale cyclonic circulation and the location of fronts are robust characteristics of the Skagerrak/northern North Sea circulation given the impact changes in the freshwater input has on the hydrography. Finally, we find that a further exploration of the impact of the lateral open boundary forcing, e.g., the input of Atlantic water, is needed.     

Badass gully morphodynamics and sediment generation in Waipaoa Catchment,New Zealand

Large (>0.1 km²) gully–mass movement complexes (badass gullies) are significant contributors to the sediment cascade in New Zealand's steepland East Coast Region catchments. The scale of change taking place in these gully systems allows significant evolution in morphology and sediment dynamics to be tracked at annual to decadal timescales. Here we document changes in two adjacent badass gullies in Waipaoa catchment (Tarndale and Mangatu) to infer sediment generation processes and connectivity using a morphological budgeting approach. A baseline dataset for this study is provided by a LiDAR-derived digital elevation model (DEM) in 2005. We produced new DEMs and orthophoto mosaics using photogrammetry in 2017, 2018, and 2019 to quantify gully morphodynamics and associated volumes of sediment erosion and deposition in both systems as they co-evolved. Results indicate ongoing rapid development of both gully complexes. Severe erosion took place at the gully heads with lowering and migration (up to 25 m vertically and laterally) of the topographic divide separating the two gullies between 2005 and 2019. Over the same period, net lowering of each gully system was ~250 mm year⁻¹. Key sediment-generating processes included surface erosion, deep-seated landslides, and debris flows. Longer term, the overall contribution of sediment from both badass gullies to the Waipaoa catchment has been declining. In the mid-20th century, both gullies yielded in excess of 300 kt year⁻¹. From 2005 to 2019, 80 kt year⁻¹ was yielded from Tarndale and 110 kt year⁻¹ from Mangatu. Our most recent surveys demonstrated considerable variability in sediment yield, ranging from 76 kt year⁻¹ (2017–2018) to 291 kt year⁻¹ (2018–2019). The annual variability observed reflects the complex morphodynamics of discrete hillslopes and tributary fans in these badass gully systems and underlines the importance of integrating decadal and annual surveys when assessing system trajectory. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

PREDICTING THE DEPTH OF EROSION IN RESERVOIRS FOLLOWING DAM REMOVAL USING BANK STABILITY ANALYSIS

1 INTRODUCTION 1. 1 Dam Removal The aging of the more than 75,000 dams in the U.S., coupled with the increasing awareness of their environmental costs, has made dam decommissioning and removal a topic of current interest to the scientific community, management agencies, and the general public. It is estimated that 85% of the dams in the U.S. will be near the end of their operational lives by the year 2020 (FEMA, 1999), necessitating thorough consideration of dam removal or repair for…     

The effects of spatial targeting of fishing effort on the distribution of the Norway lobster,Nephrops norvegicus,on the Farn Deeps grounds,northeast England

Nephrops norvegicus is an essentially sedentary species of lobster that forms the basis of valuable fisheries in the northwest Atlantic and western Mediterranean. Fishers exploiting a sedentary stock are likely to visit the most profitable (highest catch rate) areas first. Such spatial targeting of fishing effort is likely to have important consequences for stock monitoring and assessment. We used underwater television surveys of Nephrops burrow densities on the Farn Deeps grounds, northeast England, to describe changes in abundance and distribution between the beginning and end of a winter fishing season. Above a threshold of c. 0.6 burrows m^–2, overwinter depletion increased with burrow density, consistent with fishing effort being targeted at the highest densities. A simple simulation model showed that this pattern of mortality is an expected consequence of spatially targeted fishing behaviour. The model also predicted that there is decreased spatial variability in density after fishing. An overall decrease in variability was not evident from the survey data, but geostatistical analysis indicated that there was “flattening” of the density profile along a north‐south axis, consistent with the dominant direction of commercial trawling. We concluded that Nephrops fishers are able to find and exploit the highest densities of their target species. A potential consequence is that catch per unit effort (CPUE) data used to monitor trends in this stock potentially could mask declines in stock abundance. CPUE might be more effective if analysed at finer spatial scales, but this is not currently possible. In the absence of these fine scale commercial data, fishery‐independent surveys (e.g., underwater television) are an important source of information on trends in stock abundance.     

A Robust Surface Matching Technique for Integrated Monitoring of Coastal Geohazards

At the dynamic coastal fringe, numerous processes interact with local morphology. In soft-cliff environments, this can often lead to the occurrence of coastal geohazards. These can pose a major threat to property and cultural heritage, and an effective monitoring strategy is therefore essential. While contemporary monitoring techniques have been applied, these are often unsuitable in isolation. This paper presents an integrated approach, with the development of weighted surface matching software enabling reliable dataset fusion and multi-temporal change detection, even where significant surface differences exist. Evaluation of this approach is presented and discussed.