Tsunami hazard and exposure on the global scale

In the aftermath of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, a large increase in the activity of tsunami hazard and risk mapping is observed. Most of these are site-specific studies with detailed modelling of the run-up locally. However, fewer studies exist on the regional and global scale. Therefore, tsunamis have been omitted in previous global studies comparing different natural hazards. Here, we present a first global tsunami hazard and population exposure study. A key topic is the development of a simple and robust method for obtaining reasonable estimates of the maximum water level during tsunami inundation. This method is mainly based on plane wave linear hydrostatic transect simulations, and validation against results from a standard run-up model is given. The global hazard study is scenario based, focusing on tsunamis caused by megathrust earthquakes only, as the largest events will often contribute more to the risk than the smaller events. Tsunamis caused by non-seismic sources are omitted. Hazard maps are implemented by conducting a number of tsunami scenario simulations supplemented with findings from literature. The maps are further used to quantify the number of people exposed to tsunamis using the Landscan population data set. Because of the large geographical extents, quantifying the tsunami hazard assessment is focusing on overall trends.     

GCM-simulated hydrology in the Arctic duringn the past 21,000 years

The Paleoclimates from Arctic Lakes and Estuaries (PALE) project has chosen to conduct high resolution data-model comparisons for the Arctic region at 21 and 10 (calendar) ka BP. The model simulations for 21, 10, and 0 ka BP were conducted with the GENESIS 2.0 GCM. The 10 ka BP simulation was coupled to the EVE vegetation model. The primary boundary conditions differing from present at 21 ka BP were the northern hemisphere ice sheets and lower CO2, and at 10 ka BP were the orbital insolation and smaller northern hemisphere ice sheets. The purpose of this article is to discuss the hydrological consequences of these simulations.At the Last Glacial Maximum (21 ka BP) the large ice sheets over North America and Eurasia and the lower CO2 levels produced a colder climate than present, with less precipitation throughout the Arctic, except where circulation was altered by the ice sheets. At 10 ka BP greater summer insolation resulted in a warmer and wetter Beringia, but conditions remained cold and dry in the north Atlantic sector, in the vicinity of the remnant ice sheets. Less winter insolation at 10 ka BP resulted in colder and drier conditions throughout the Arctic. Precipitation - evaporation generally correlated with precipitation except where changes in the surface type (ice sheets, vegetation at 10 ka BP, or sea level at 21 ka BP) caused large changes in the evaporation rate. The primary hydrological differences (from present) at 21 and 10 ka BP correlated with the temperature differences, which were a direct result of the large-scale boundary condition changes.     

Untangling the influence of in-lake productivity and terrestrial organic matter flux on 4,250 years of mercury accumulation in Lake Hambre, Southern Chile

There is ongoing debate about the relative influence of aquatic production, flux, and sedimentation of aquatic and terrestrial organic matter on mercury accumulation in lake sediments. In this study, lake sediments spanning the past 4,250 years, were collected from remote, organic-rich Lake Hambre, Patagonia (53° S) and investigated for changes in the accumulation of pre-anthropogenic mercury and organic matter of aquatic and terrestrial origin. Natural mercury accumulation varied by up to a factor of four, comparable to the recent anthropogenic forcing of the mercury cycle (factor 3–5). Hydrogen and Oxygen indices (HI and OI, Rock–Eval©) and nitrogen/carbon ratios of the organic matter, combined with multi-element sediment data, reveal intense changes in aquatic productivity as well as influx of terrestrial organic matter into the lake. Evaluation of the multi-element dataset using Principal Component Analysis shows clear covariation of mercury with other soil-derived elements such as copper and yttrium. This covariance reflects a common transport mechanism, i.e. leaching of trace-element-bearing organic matter complexes from catchment soils. Correlation between changes in aquatic productivity and mercury concentrations occurs in some sections of the record, but we do not suggest they are linked by a direct causal relationship. Mass balance approaches suggest that mercury scavenging and accumulation in this organic-rich lake is controlled by the supply of mercury from catchment soils rather than the amount of organic material produced within the water column. A common controlling mechanism, i.e. changing climate, however, is thought to independently drive variations in both the flux of terrestrial organic matter mercury complexes and aquatic productivity.     

O, S, Sr, and Pb isotope variations in volcanic rocks from the Northern Mariana Islands: implications for crustal recycling in intra-oceanic arcs

Quaternary lavas from the Northern Mariana Islands have respective O- and S-isotope ranges ofδ¹⁸O = +5.7 to +6.6 (‰ SMOW) andδ³⁴S = +2.0to+20.7 (‰ CDT). Chemically evolved andesites and dacites with meanδ¹⁸O = +6.3 ± 0.2 are slightly enriched in¹⁸O with respect to unfractionated basalts of<53%SiO₂ with meanδ¹⁸O = +6.0 ± 0.1. This¹⁸O enrichment can be explained in terms of differentiation of parental mafic magmas havingδ¹⁸O values between +5.7 to +6.2‰ through closed-system crystal fractionation because the lavas from all nine islands of the arc define a coherentδ¹⁸OSiO₂ trend. The S-isotope composition of oxidized magmas is not modified extensively through the degassing of SO₂; therefore, the meanδ³⁴S value of ca. +11‰ for the Mariana lavas is considered to be representative of their source region.The enrichment of¹⁸O and³⁴S in Mariana Arc parental magmas relative to ocean floor basalts withδ¹⁸O ca. + 5.7‰ andδ³⁴S = ca.0.3‰ is attributed to the recycling of¹⁸O- and³⁴S-rich crustal components (sediment withδ¹⁸O = ca. + 25‰ and seawater sulfate withδ³⁴S = ca. +20‰ into the upper mantle source region for these arc magmas. This interpretation is consistent with enrichments of radiogenic Sr and Pb in the same lavas relative to ocean-floor basalts erupted either side of the arc, which are presumed to share a common upper mantle source. This enrichment is considered to reflect the mixing of two components, one having a typical upper mantle composition and the other having a more radiogenic character similar to that of western Pacific pelagic sediments.     

Radar observations of Itokawa in 2004 and improved shape estimation

Abstract— We present June 2004 radar images of asteroid 25143 Itokawa (1998 SF36) that improve upon the longitude‐latitude coverage of images obtained in 2001 by Ostro et al. (2004) and use the 2001–2004 data to refine that paper's constraints on Itokawa's shape. The 2004 images, the first of the asteroid's southern side, look distinctly different from the 2001 images, revealing leading edges that are much more curved and rugged than the nearly convex leading edges seen at northern latitudes in 2001. Itokawa is shaped like a slightly asymmetrical, bent, lumpy ellipsoid with dimensions along the principal axes within 10% of 594 times 320 times 288 m. To illustrate the uncertainty space associated with shape reconstruction from images with suboptimal orientational coverage, we present two alternative three‐dimensional models of the object.     

A sea-level test for inertial interchange true polar wander events

The possibility of inertial interchange true polar wander (IITPW) events, in which the rotation pole moves 90° with respect to the solid Earth in a matter of ∼10  Myr, has been discussed in the geophysical literature for more than three decades. Recent evidence for an IITPW event in Early Cambrian time has renewed interest in the issue; however, the veracity of supporting palaeomagnetic evidence remains a matter of significant debate. We propose that sea-level variations driven by polar wander provide an important independent test for the occurrence of IITPW events. Our numerical simulations of the response of a viscoelastic planet to an IITPW-induced forcing predict sea-level changes of up to 200  m, depending on the details of the earth model, the location of the site relative to the rotation path and the elapsed time for the reorientation of the pole. A preliminary comparison of our predictions to Early–Middle Cambrian sea-level records for Australia, Laurentia and Baltica shows qualitative agreement. This comparison suggests that a definitive test for the Cambrian IITPW hypothesis is possible given a sufficiently accurate, and globally distributed, database of sea-level histories.     

Governance and technology transfer in the Clean Development Mechanism in India

Despite significant technological advances in emerging economies, the further development of clean energy technologies in developing countries remains crucial to reducing the greenhouse gas emissions associated with economic development. In this paper we address two significant gaps in the growing body of literature that has assessed the role of the Clean Development Mechanism in promoting the transfer of clean technologies to developing countries. First, we present a qualitative analysis of the governance of the Clean Development Mechanism in India. This provides a basis for understanding the extent to which and the ways in which governance may impact upon the likelihood that projects promote technology transfer. Second, we provide a novel quantification of the level and nature of technology transfer that has occurred in Indian Clean Development Mechanism projects, based on insights from literature on technological capability building. We find that the Clean Development Mechanism in India has produced a negligible number of projects that promote technology transfer if technology transfer is understood as a process of learning about technology. Together these qualitative and quantitative analyses show how politics and governance have contributed to the current form of the Clean Development Mechanism market in India, in which processes of building indigenous technological capabilities have been neglected.     

Video observations of marine gravel transport

In an analysis of video observations of gravel transport in the West Slent, UK, collective and individual characteristics of 458 bursts of bedload have been examined and the transport velocity and distance of 1680 individual particles in a consecutive succession of burst events determined. Infrequent, long duration, high stress events account for 60% of total transport in only 24% of the total time with the mean free path and transport velocity for particles being 0.16 m and 0.22 m/s, respectively. Clear links between intense intermittent turbulence and bedload transport revealed in this study, suggest progress in modelling requires a clearer understanding of near bed flow structure.