Internal variability in a regional climate model over West Africa

Sensitivity studies with regional climate models are often performed on the basis of a few simulations for which the difference is analysed and the statistical significance is often taken for granted. In this study we present some simple measures of the confidence limits for these types of experiments by analysing the internal variability of a regional climate model run over West Africa. Two 1-year long simulations, differing only in their initial conditions, are compared. The difference between the two runs gives a measure of the internal variability of the model and an indication of which timescales are reliable for analysis. The results are analysed for a range of timescales and spatial scales, and quantitative measures of the confidence limits for regional model simulations are diagnosed for a selection of study areas for rainfall, low level temperature and wind. As the averaging period or spatial scale is increased, the signal due to internal variability gets smaller and confidence in the simulations increases. This occurs more rapidly for variations in precipitation, which appear essentially random, than for dynamical variables, which show some organisation on larger scales.     

Competitive Adjustment and Advancement in Global Commodity Chains II: The Case of the Singapore Garment Industry

This is the second part of a contribution to the debate on the possibilities of leveraging economic globalisation — through incorporation in international production networks and global commodity chains (GCCs) — as a strategy for developing countries to industrialise and advance their position in the world economy. In the first part, we analysed the experience of the East Asian apparel industry and addressed the issues of sustaining positions, upgrading to more rewarding roles, and advancing to less dependent positions within production networks and GCCs. We developed an analytical framework at both the firm and industry levels, and subsequently identified alternative firm- and industry-level strategies and trajectories. The present paper deals with these issues in the context of the Singapore apparel industry. Based on extensive empirical research, we demonstrate that although the East Asian experience of upgrading and repositioning within the GCC is to some extent emulated in the case of the Singapore apparel industry, the outcomes have been less favourable in terms of the depth, extent and strength of these trajectories. The differing outcomes can be explained in terms of different (systemic) conditions in the Singapore business environment, including the agency of local players, the geography of sourcing networks, and the role of the state and prevailing business attitudes. Our conclusions merit continued attention in both research and policy circles on the development of capabilities at the firm level, and the role of local business and institutional environments in local industry development processes under globalisation.     

Jökulhlaup-related Ice Fracture and Supraglacial Water Release During the November 1996 Jökulhlaup, Skeiðarárjökull, Iceland

During the initial stages of the November 1996 jökulhlaup at Skeiðarárjökull, Iceland, floodwaters burst onto the glacier surface via a series of fractures. This supraglacial drainage led to the formation of a number of distinct ice surface depressions, one of which is investigated in detail. The morphology and structural characteristics of this feature are described, as well as the sedimentology of an associated assemblage of debris-filled fractures. This work suggests that debris-charged subglacial floodwaters travelled up to the glacier surface, where supraglacial flow occurred initially via an extensive network of fractures, orientated parallel to the glacier margin. Supraglacial discharge became progressively more focused into a series of discrete outlets, leading to the mechanical erosion of a number of depressions on the glacier surface. The associated transfer of subglacially derived floodwaters to high levels within the glacier resulted in the rapid entrainment of large volumes of sediment which may influence the patterns, processes and products of ice-marginal sedimentation in the future.     

A fractal climate response function can simulate global average temperature trends of the modern era and the past millennium

A climate response function is introduced that consists of six exponential (low-pass) filters with weights depending as a power law on their e-folding times. The response of this two-parameter function to the combined forcings of solar irradiance, greenhouse gases, and SO₂-related aerosols is fitted simultaneously to reconstructed temperatures of the past millennium, the response to solar cycles, the response to the 1991 Pinatubo volcanic eruption, and the modern 1850–2010 temperature trend. Assuming strong long-term modulation of solar irradiance, the quite adequate fit produces a climate response function with a millennium-scale response to doubled CO₂ concentration of 2.0 ± 0.3 °C (mean ± standard error), of which about 50 % is realized with e-folding times of 0.5 and 2 years, about 30 % with e-folding times of 8 and 32 years, and about 20 % with e-folding times of 128 and 512 years. The transient climate response (response after 70 years of 1 % yearly rise of CO₂ concentration) is 1.5 ± 0.2 °C. The temperature rise from 1820 to 1950 can be attributed for about 70 % to increased solar irradiance, while the temperature changes after 1950 are almost completely produced by the interplay of anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols. The SO₂-related forcing produces a small temperature drop in the years 1950–1970 and an inflection of the temperature curve around the year 2000. Fitting with a tenfold smaller modulation of solar irradiance produces a less adequate fit with millennium-scale and transient climate responses of 2.5 ± 0.4 and 1.9 ± 0.3 °C, respectively.     

Arsenic Speciation in Lichens and in Coarse and Fine Airborne Particulate Matter by HPLC–UV–HG–AFS

A three-step sequential extraction procedure with Milli-Q, CaCl₂ and H₃PO₄ was applied for extraction of arsenic species in lichen transplants and airborne particulate matter (fine and coarse fractions). The samples used in this work were collected in 1994–1995 near coal-fired power plants. Both transplant lichens and airborne particulate matter were submitted to the same environment simultaneously. Arsenic species identification and quantification was performed by HPLC–UV–HG–AFS. Inorganic forms of arsenic (arsenite and arsenate) were present in significant amounts in most of the samples. Only in lichens also organic forms of arsenic (monomethyl arsonic acid and dimethyl arsinic acid) were identified which may indicate biotransformation of inorganic arsenic.     

The Summer Surface Energy Balance of the High Antarctic Plateau

The summertime surface energy balance (SEB) at Kohnen station, situated on the high Antarctic plateau (75°00′ S, 0°04′ E, 2892m above sea level) is presented for the period of 8 January to 9 February 2002. Shortwave and longwave radiation fluxes were measured directly; the former was corrected for problems associated with the cosine response of the instrument. Sensible and latent heat fluxes were calculated using the bulk method, and eddy-correlation measurements and the modified Bowen ratio method were used to verify these calculated fluxes. The calculated sub-surface heat flux was checked by comparing calculated to measured snow temperatures. Uncertainties in the measurements and energy-balance calculations are discussed. The general meteorological conditions were not extraordinary during the period of the experiment, with a mean 2-m air temperature of −27.5°C, specific humidity of 0.52×10⁻³kg kg⁻¹ and wind speed of 4.1ms⁻¹. The experiment covered the transition period from Antarctic summer (positive net radiation) to winter (negative net radiation), and as a result the period mean net radiation, sensible heat, latent heat and sub-surface heat fluxes were small with values of −1.1, 0.0, −1.0 and 0.7 Wm⁻², respectively. Daily mean net radiation peaked on cloudy days (16 Wm⁻²) and was negative on clear-sky days (minimum of −19 W m⁻²). Daily mean sensible heat flux ranged from −8 to +10 Wm⁻², latent heat flux from −4 to 0 Wm⁻² and sub-surface heat flux from −8 to +7 Wm⁻².     

How well do integrated assessment models simulate climate change?

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are regularly used to evaluate different policies of future emissions reductions. Since the global costs associated with these policies are immense, it is vital that the uncertainties in IAMs are quantified and understood. We first demonstrate the significant spread in the climate system and carbon cycle components of several contemporary IAMs. We then examine these components in more detail to understand the causes of differences, comparing the results with more complex climate models and earth system models (ESMs), where available. Our results show that in most cases the outcomes of IAMs are within the range of the outcomes of complex models, but differences are large enough to matter for policy advice. There are areas where IAMs would benefit from improvements (e.g. climate sensitivity, inertia in climate response, carbon cycle feedbacks). In some cases, additional climate model experiments are needed to be able to tune some of these improvements. This will require better communication between the IAM and ESM development communities.     

Influence of the Surf Zone on the Marine Aerosol Concentration in a Coastal Area

Sea-salt aerosol concentrations in the coastal zone are assessed with the numerical aerosol-transport model MACMod that applies separate aerosol source functions for open ocean and the surf zone near the sea–land transition. Numerical simulations of the aerosol concentration as a function of offshore distance from the surf zone compare favourably with experimental data obtained during a surf-zone aerosol experiment in Duck, North Carolina in autumn 2007. Based on numerical simulations, the effect of variations in aerosol production (source strength) and transport conditions (wind speed, air–sea temperature difference), we show that the surf-zone aerosols are replaced by aerosols generated over the open ocean as the airmass advects out to sea. The contribution from the surf-generated aerosol is significant during high wind speeds and high wave events, and is significant up to 30 km away from the production zone. At low wind speeds, the oceanic component dominates, except within 1–5 km of the surf zone. Similar results are obtained for onshore flow, where no further sea-salt aerosol production occurs as the airmass advects out over land. The oceanic aerosols that are well-mixed throughout the boundary layer are then more efficiently transported inland than are the surf-generated aerosols, which are confined to the first few tens of metres above the surface, and are therefore also more susceptible to the type of surface (trees or grass) that determines the deposition velocity.     

Climate benefits of changing diet

Climate change mitigation policies tend to focus on the energy sector, while the livestock sector receives surprisingly little attention, despite the fact that it accounts for 18% of the greenhouse gas emissions and for 80% of total anthropogenic land use. From a dietary perspective, new insights in the adverse health effects of beef and pork have lead to a revision of meat consumption recommendations. Here, we explored the potential impact of dietary changes on achieving ambitious climate stabilization levels. By using an integrated assessment model, we found a global food transition to less meat, or even a complete switch to plant-based protein food to have a dramatic effect on land use. Up to 2,700 Mha of pasture and 100 Mha of cropland could be abandoned, resulting in a large carbon uptake from regrowing vegetation. Additionally, methane and nitrous oxide emission would be reduced substantially. A global transition to a low meat-diet as recommended for health reasons would reduce the mitigation costs to achieve a 450 ppm CO₂-eq. stabilisation target by about 50% in 2050 compared to the reference case. Dietary changes could therefore not only create substantial benefits for human health and global land use, but can also play an important role in future climate change mitigation policies.