Scale in structure and dynamics

Ian Main, Bruce Malamud, Chris Bean and John McCloskey summarize the presentations and lively debate at the British Geophysical Association's annual British Discussion Meeting on Scale-Invariance and Scale-Dependence in Earth Structure and Dynamics.     

Modelling the effects of motion on primary production in the mixed layer of lakes

A model of the time dependent relationship between productivity and light intensity following changes in light intensity is briefly described. The model incorporates two response timescales simulating initial response and photoinhibition, although additional timescales could easily be incorporated. The model is calibrated against one set of time dependent data, and applied to two simple models of motion in the upper mixed layer of a lake. The two models are: organised motion simulating Langmuir cells, and disorganised motion simulating the turbulent velocity field associated with surface wind stirring. The depth and therefore light histories for a number of photosynthesising particles are calculated by these models, and used by the productivity model to calculate mean productivities. The results show that the influence of the time dependent nature of the productivity relationship depends on the ratio of the mixed layer depth to the euphotic depth, and to a less extent, on the rate at which the particles circulate in the mixed layer.     

Subaqueous pyroclastic flows and ignimbrites: an assessment

An assessment of the literature on subaqueous pyroclastic flows and their deposits shows that the term pyroclastic flow is frequently used loosely to describe primary, hot gas-rich pyroclastic flows, mass-flows which resulted from the transformation of gassupported flows into water-supported ones, and secondary mass-flows carrying redeposited pyroclastic debris. Based on subaerial pyroclastic flows, the term pyroclastic flow should be restricted to demonstrably hot, gas-rich mass-flows of pyroclastic debris. Using this definition, very few examples of subaqueous pyroclastic deposits with evidence for hot emplacement and of having been wholly submerged have been described. In the majority of these cases, the evidence for a hot state of emplacement and for the subaqueous nature of the host depositional environment is inadequate. The only unequivocal cases of hot pyroclastic flow deposits with adequate supporting evidence are the Ordovician nearshore, shallow marine ignimbrites of Ireland and Wales, and Miocene ignimbrites of southwest Japan, resulting from the passage of subaerially erupted pyroclastic flows into shallow water. Other possible examples are near-vent dense clast deposits in the Donzurobo Formation of Japan, possible submarine intra-caldera ponded ignimbrite successions in California and Wales, and near-vent pumiceous deposits of Ramsay Island, Wales. All other purported cases are either clearly the result of water-supported mass-flow transportation and deposition (debris avalanches, debris flows, turbidity currents), or lack adequate supporting evidence regarding the heat state or the palaeoenvironment. Only the shallow marine ignimbrites of Ireland and Wales show adequate evidence of welding, but even these could have been nearly wholly exposed above sea-level when welding occurred. We conclude that when pyroclastic flows enter water they are generally disrupted explosively and/or ingest water and transform into water-supported mass-flows, and we suggest the various scenarios in which this occurs. There is no evidence to suggest that welding in wholly subaqueous environments is common.     

Storm surge computations in estuarine and near-coastal regions: the Mersey estuary and Irish Sea area

An unstructured grid storm surge model of the west coast of Britain, incorporating a high-resolution representation of the Mersey estuary is used to examine storm surge dynamics in the region. The focus of the study is the major surge that occurred during the period 11–14 November 1977, which has been investigated previously using uniform grid finite difference models and a finite element model of the west coast of Britain. However, none of these models included the Mersey estuary. Comparison of solutions in the eastern Irish Sea with those computed with these earlier models showed that, away from the Liverpool Bay region, the inclusion of the Mersey estuary had little effect. However, at the entrance to the Mersey, its inclusion did influence the solution. By including a detailed representation of the Mersey estuary within the model, it was possible to conduct a detailed study of storm surge propagation in the Mersey, which had never previously been performed. This detailed study showed for the first time that the surge’s temporal variability within the estuary is influenced by surge elevation at its entrance. This varies with time as a function of spatial and temporal variations of wind stress over the west coast of Britain. Within the Mersey, calculations show that the spatial variability is mainly determined by changes in bottom topography, which had not been included in earlier finite difference models. However, since water depth is influenced by variations in tidal elevation, this, together with tide surge interaction through bottom friction and momentum advection, influences the surge. The ability of the finite element model to vary the mesh in near-shore regions to such an extent that it can resolve the Mersey and hence the impact of the Mersey estuary upon the Liverpool Bay circulation shows that it has distinct advantages over earlier finite difference models. In the absence of detailed measurements within the Mersey at the time of the surge, it was not possible to validate predicted surge elevations within the Mersey. However, significant insight into physical processes influencing the surge propagation down the estuary, its reflection and spatial/temporal variability could be gained.     

The application of lead isotope ratios in the Antarctic macroalga Iridaea cordata as a contaminant monitoring tool

Lead (Pb) isotope ratios were measured in the marine macroalga Iridaea cordata collected from four locations in the Windmill Islands, East Antarctica. Based on the masses of thalli collected, samples analysed in this study were likely to be a mixture of one and two year old thalli. For a sample of thalli of various ages (<12 months to 2 years old) from the same site there was no apparent variation in Pb concentration or Pb isotope ratio with thallus mass/age, indicating that contaminant sources had been constant over the lifetime of the thalli sampled. I.cordata samples close to the Thala Valley waste disposal site (Brown Bay Inner) near the Australian Station, Casey, displayed isotopic signatures (²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb 35.99; ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb 1.066; n = 3; average values shown) trending towards that possessed by major Australian Pb sources (Broken Hill and Mt Isa, ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb 35.60; ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb 1.041) suggesting that these samples had been exposed to anthropogenic Pb originating from the Thala Valley waste disposal site. Material collected hundreds of metres from the tip location at Brown Bay Outer had isotopic values (²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb 36.32; ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb 1.088; n = 10) intermediate between Brown Bay Inner and sites further from the contaminant source at Sparkes Bay and Wilkes (²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb 36.46; ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁷Pb 1.094; n = 4) showing that contaminant transport was predominantly restricted to Brown Bay Inner. This study demonstrates that the isotope ratios of Pb in marine macroalgae can provide valuable information as to the origin and extent of heavy metal flux in a marine environment.     

Monitored Natural Attenuation of Manufactured Gas Plant Tar Mono- and Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons in Ground Water: A 14-Year Field Study

Site 24 was the subject of a 14-year (5110-day) study of a ground water plume created by the disposal of manufactured gas plant (MGP) tar into a shallow sandy aquifer approximately 25 years prior to the study. The ground water plume in 1988 extended from a well-defined source area to a distance of approximately 400 m down gradient. A system of monitoring wells was installed along six transects that ran perpendicular to the longitudinal axis of the plume centerline. The MGP tar source was removed from the site in 1991 and a 14-year ground water monitored natural attenuation (MNA) study commenced. The program measured the dissolved mono- and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (MAHs and PAHs) periodically over time, which decreased significantly over the 14-year period. Naphthalene decreased to less than 99% of the original dissolved mass, with mass degradation rates of 0.30 per year (half-life 2.3 years). Bulk attenuation rate constants for plume centerline concentrations over time ranged from 0.33 ± 0.09 per year (half-life 2.3 ± 0.8 years) for toluene and 0.45 ± 0.06 per year (half-life 1.6 ± 0.2 years) for naphthalene. The hydrogeologic setting at Site 24, having a sandy aquifer, shallow water table, clay confining layer, and aerobic conditions, was ideal for demonstrating MNA. However, these results demonstrate that MNA is a viable remedial strategy for ground water at sites impacted by MAHs and PAHs after the original source is removed, stabilized, or contained.     

Practical Postcalibration Uncertainty Analysis: Yucca Mountain, Nevada

The values of parameters in a groundwater flow model govern the precision of predictions of future system behavior. Predictive precision, thus, typically depends on an ability to infer values of system properties from historical measurements through calibration. When such data are scarce, or when their information content with respect to parameters that are most relevant to predictions of interest is weak, predictive uncertainty may be high, even if the model is "calibrated." Recent advances help recognize this condition, quantitatively evaluate predictive uncertainty, and suggest a path toward improved predictive accuracy by identifying sources of predictive uncertainty and by determining what observations will most effectively reduce this uncertainty. We demonstrate linear and nonlinear predictive error/uncertainty analyses as applied to a groundwater flow model of Yucca Mountain, Nevada, the United States' proposed site for disposal of high-level radioactive waste. Linear and nonlinear uncertainty analyses are readily implemented as an adjunct to model calibration with medium to high parameterization density. Linear analysis yields contributions made by each parameter to a prediction's uncertainty and the worth of different observations, both existing and yet-to-be-gathered, toward reducing this uncertainty. Nonlinear analysis provides more accurate characterization of the uncertainty of model predictions while yielding their (approximate) probability distribution functions. This article applies the above methods to a prediction of specific discharge and confirms the uncertainty bounds on specific discharge supplied in the Yucca Mountain Project License Application.     

Evaluation of spatially clustered ordnance when using compliance sampling surveys after clean-up at military training sites

After site clean-up teams have removed all of what they believe to be UXO within a specific impact area, statistical compliance sampling is a possible method for verifying with a specified probability that this area has been cleaned to specifications. Schilling [J Qual Technol 10(2):47–51, 1978, Acceptance sampling in quality control. Marcel Dekker, Inc., New York, 1982] developed a compliance sampling methodology based on the hypergeometric distribution. Bowen and Bennett (1987) also use compliance sampling where they provide an approximation for estimating the number of samples (n) required to state with desired probability that the entire population of sample units (N, where n < N) are in compliance with cleanup goals. This article describes two methods (anomaly and transect) for applying the Schilling [J Qual Technol 10(2):47–51, 1978, Acceptance sampling in quality control. Marcel Dekker, Inc., New York, 1982] compliance sampling method to military training sites. After describing these methods, a simulation study is presented which demonstrates the performance of transect compliance sampling calculations based on varied degrees of clustered UXO within a specific impact area and different types of sampling routines.