Seasonal prediction of global sea level anomalies using an ocean–atmosphere dynamical model

Advanced warning of extreme sea level events is an invaluable tool for coastal communities, allowing the implementation of management policies and strategies to minimise loss of life and infrastructure damage. This study is an initial attempt to apply a dynamical coupled ocean–atmosphere model to the prediction of seasonal sea level anomalies (SLA) globally for up to 7 months in advance. We assess the ability of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s operational seasonal dynamical forecast system, the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), to predict seasonal SLA, using gridded satellite altimeter observation-based analyses over the period 1993–2010 and model reanalysis over 1981–2010. Hindcasts from POAMA are based on a 33-member ensemble of seasonal forecasts that are initialised once per month for the period 1981–2010. Our results show POAMA demonstrates high skill in the equatorial Pacific basin and consistently exhibits more skill globally than a forecast based on persistence. Model predictability estimates indicate there is scope for improvement in the higher latitudes and in the Atlantic and Southern Oceans. Most characteristics of the asymmetric SLA fields generated by El-Nino/La Nina events are well represented by POAMA, although the forecast amplitude weakens with increasing lead-time.     

Cosmic ray ionization of the Jovian atmosphere

An approximate form of the Boltzmann equation has been used to obtain local ionization rates due to the absorption of galactic cosmic rays in the Jovian atmosphere. It is shown that the muon flux component of the cosmic ray-induced cascade may be especially importannt in ionizing the atmosphere at levels where the total number density exceeds 10¹⁹ cm^?3 (well below the ionospheric layers produced by solar euv). A model containing both positive and negative ion reactions has been employed to compute equilibrium electron and ion number densities. Peak electron number densities on the order of 10³ cm^?3 may be expected even at relatively low magnetic latitudes. The dominant positive ions are NH₄⁺ and C_nH_m⁺ cluster ions, with n ? 2; it is suggested that the absorption of galactic cosmic ray energy at such relatively high pressures in the Jovian atmosphere $\text{(M ? 10}{}^{18}\text{to}\text{10}{}^{20}\text{cm}{}^{\mathrm{?3}}\text{)}$ and the subsequent chemical reactions may be instrumental in the local formation of complex hydrocarbons.     

Water and salt balance modelling to predict the effects of land-use changes in forested catchments. 1. Small catchment water balance model

A long-term water balance model has been developed to predict the hydrological effects of land-use change (especially forest clearing) in small experimental catchments in the south-west of Western Australia. This small catchment model has been used as the building block for the development of a large catchment-scale model, and has also formed the basis for a coupled water and salt balance model, developed to predict the changes in stream salinity resulting from land-use and climate change. The application of the coupled salt and water balance model to predict stream salinities in two small experimental catchments, and the application of the large catchment-scale model to predict changes in water yield in a medium-sized catchment that is being mined for bauxite, are presented in Parts 2 and 3, respectively, of this series of papers. The small catchment model has been designed as a simple, robust, conceptually based model of the basic daily water balance fluxes in forested catchments. The responses of the catchment to rainfall and pan evaporation are conceptualized in terms of three interdependent subsurface stores A, B and F. Store A depicts a near-stream perched aquifer system; B represents a deeper, permanent groundwater system; and F is an intermediate, unsaturated infiltration store. The responses of these stores are characterized by a set of constitutive relations which involves a number of conceptual parameters. These parameters are estimated by calibration by comparing observed and predicted runoff. The model has performed very well in simulations carried out on Salmon and Wights, two small experimental catchments in the Collie River basin in south-west Western Australia. The results from the application of the model to these small catchments are presented in this paper.     

Kinetic studies of the rate of dissolution of silica and diatom tests in sea water

Kinetic studies have been carried out on the dissolution of 10μm beads of silica and of the siliceous tests of two species of diatoms (Thalassiosira fluviatus andSkeletonema costatum) in sea water at 10–50°C and over the pH range 6–9. At all temperatures dissolution of the biogenous silica occurred most rapidly at pH 8 and most slowly at pH 6. First order kinetics were closely followed when the silica was present in a considerable excess over that required for saturation, the rate being proportional to the area of the silica. Apparent deviation from this type of kinetics occurred when there was insufficient silica to bring about saturation. This was undoubtedly due to the progressive decrease in the surface area which takes place as the particle dissolves. Application of the rather simplistic model developed by Kamataniet al. (1980), which makes allowance for this decrease, gave a close correspondence with the data until ∼ 90% of the silica had dissolved.     

Climate Suitability: For Stable Malaria Transmission in Zimbabwe Under Different Climate Change Scenarios

As climate is one factor determining the potential range of malaria, climate change may work with or against efforts to bring malaria under control. We developed a model of future climate suitability for stable Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Zimbabwe. Current climate suitability for stable malaria transmission is based on the MARA/ARMA model of climatic constraints on the survival and development of the Anopheles vector and the Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite. We explored potential future geographic distributions of malaria using sixteen projections of climate in 2100. The results suggest that, assuming no future human-imposed constraints on malaria transmission, changes in temperature and precipitation could alter the geographic distribution of malaria in Zimbabwe, with previously unsuitable areas of dense human population becoming suitable for transmission. Among all scenarios, the highlands become more suitable for transmission, while the lowveld and areas currently limited by precipitation show varying degrees of change, depending on climate sensitivity and greenhouse gas emission stabilization scenarios, and depending on the general circulation model used. The methods employed can be used within or across other African countries. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Transient soil response in a porous seabed with variable permeability

The soil permeability of many natural marine sediments decreases with depth because of consolidation under overburden pressure. This is accompanied by a decrease in porosity and void ratio that also affect the permeability. Conventional theories for wave-induced soil response have assumed a homogeneous porous seabed. This paper presents a new approach for the wave-induced response in a soil matrix, with variable permeability as a function of burial depth. The soil matrix considered is unsaturated and anisotropic, and is subject to a three-dimensional wave system. The pore pressure and effective stresses induced by such a system are obtained from a set of equations incorporating a variable permeability. Verification is available through reduction to the simple case of uniform permeability. The results indicate that the effect of variable soil permeability on pore pressure and vertical effective stress may be significant, especially in a gravelled seabed and for unsaturated sandy soils.     

Rb-Sr dating of Paleozoic glauconite from the Llano region,central Texas

Glauconite from eight stratigraphic horizons (Cambrian to Pennsylvanian) in the Llano Uplift, central Texas and two Cretaceous glauconites were analyzed by the Rb-Sr method. Only two untreated samples provide ages in agreement with those anticipated from current best estimates of the geologic time scale. With one exception all the other apparent ages fall short of the estimated age of deposition by as much as 22%. Low ages, the pattern customarily observed, are attributed to postdepositional loss of radiogenic ⁸⁷Sr from expandable layers by weathering or during diagenesis.Detailed leaching experiments using a variety of reagents were performed to characterize the behavior of glauconite. The most promising treatment, which we recommend as standard procedure in all future studies, is with ammonium acetate which is able to purge the mineral of loosely-bound Rb and Sr while leaving tightly-bound components intact. After appropriate leach, three other Rb-Sr ages were brought into coincidence with their estimated ages of deposition.In contrast an Upper Cambrian glauconite was found to be extremely resistant to further alteration by chemical attack′, providing an age of 429 ± 17 M yr. Although 17% short of the age of deposition, this age is interpreted as the time of a real event: diagenetic recrystallization induced by burial. Comparison of data from four samples indicates that for Paleozoic glauconite, conditions exist in which the Rb-Sr system is less susceptible to mild disturbance than is the K-Ar system.     

Geoarchaeological and Bioarchaeological Studies at Mira,an Early Upper Paleolithic Site in the Lower Dnepr Valley,Ukraine

New geoarchaeological and bioarcheological research was undertaken at the open‐air site of Mira, which is buried in deposits of the Second Terrace of the Dnepr River, roughly 15 km downstream from the city of Zaporozhye in Ukraine. Previous excavation of the site revealed two occupation layers dating to ∼32,000 cal BP. The lower layer (II/2) yielded bladelets similar to those of the early Gravettian, while the upper layer (I) contained traces of an artificial shelter and hundreds of bones and teeth of horse (Equus latipes). Mira represents the only firmly dated early Upper Paleolithic (EUP) site in the Dnepr Basin, and occupies a unique topographic setting for the EUP near the center of the broad floodplain of the Dnepr River. The site was visited during a period of floodplain stability, characterized by overbank deposition and weak soil formation under cool climate conditions. Mira was used as a long‐term camp, but also was the locus of large‐mammal carcass processing associated with a nearby kill of a group of horses (Layer I).