Electric sector investments under technological and policy-related uncertainties: a stochastic programming approach

Although emerging technologies like carbon capture and storage and advanced nuclear are expected to play leading roles in greenhouse gas mitigation efforts, many engineering and policy-related uncertainties will influence their deployment. Capital-intensive infrastructure decisions depend on understanding the likelihoods and impacts of uncertainties such as the timing and stringency of climate policy as well as the technological availability of carbon capture systems. This paper demonstrates the utility of stochastic programming approaches to uncertainty analysis within a practical policy setting, using uncertainties in the US electric sector as motivating examples. We describe the potential utility of this framework for energy-environmental decision making and use a modeling example to reinforce these points and to stress the need for new tools to better exploit the full range of benefits the stochastic programming approach can provide. Model results illustrate how this framework can give important insights about hedging strategies to reduce risks associated with high compliance costs for tight CO₂ caps and low CCS availability. Metrics for evaluating uncertainties like the expected value of perfect information and the value of the stochastic solution quantify the importance of including uncertainties in capacity planning, of making precautionary low-carbon investments, and of conducting research and gathering information to reduce risk.     

Unique isoprene oxidation products demonstrate chlorine atom chemistry occurs in the Houston,Texas urban area

As part of the 2000 Texas Air Quality Study (TexAQS), we studied the isoprene oxidation process under ambient conditions to discern the presence of chlorine atom (Cl) chemistry in the Houston, Texas urban area. By measuring chloromethylbutenone (CMBO) and an isomer of chloromethylbutenal (CMBA), we clearly observed sixteen episodes of active Cl chemistry during the 24-day experiment. Estimated median Cl concentration during each of these episodes was between the detection limit of ~10² atoms cm⁻³ and 50 _{- 30} ^{+ 70} ×10⁴ 50_{ - 30}^{ + 70} \times {10^4} atoms cm⁻³. Cl concentration during all the episodes averaged 7.6 _{- 2.0} ^{+ 4.7} ×10⁴ 7.6_{ - 2.0}^{ + 4.7} \times {10^4} atoms cm⁻³ and thus amounted to less than 3% of the OH concentration during the same periods. During the episodes, the fraction of oxidation chemistry initiated by Cl ranged from 3–43% and was strongly dependent on the quantity and type of hydrocarbons present in the atmosphere. Because of its intermittent presence and low concentration, Cl is not a broadly influential oxidant in the Houston, Texas urban area.     

Review of Lagrangian stochastic models for trajectories in the turbulent atmosphere

We review the theoretical basis for, and the advantages of, random flight models for the trajectories of tracer particles in turbulence. We then survey their application to calculate dispersion in the principal types of atmospheric turbulence (stratified, vertically-inhomogeneous, Gaussian or non-Gaussian turbulence in the surface layer and above), and show that they are especially suitable for some problems (e.g., quantifying ground emissions).     

Occurrence of juvenile Atlantic sturgeon,Acipenser oxyrhynchus,in the upper tidal Delaware River

Eighty-nine juvenile Atlantic sturgeon,Acipenser oxyrhynchus oxyrhynchus, including 10 recaptures, were collected, tagged and released in the upper tidal Delaware River between July 1981 and December 1984. All were captured in the river channel between Roebling and Trenton, New Jersey, using bottom-set experimental gill nets during daylight hours. The species was present from July through December and collected in increased numbers in the past two years. The fork lengths ranged from 284 to 862 mm (mean±SD = 516 mm±106 mm) and the weights from 140 to 4,250 g (mean±SD = 1,369 g±815 g). Ten juvenile Atlantic sturgeon were recaptured between September 1983 and December 1984 and were at large from one to 418 d. Recapture data suggest that these sturgeon utilize this area annually from July through December, possibly as a nursery. Juvenile Atlantic sturgeon appear to utilize the upper tidal portion of the Delaware River for a much longer period of time and at lower temperatures than in other river systems.     

Description and interpretation of the composition of fluid and alteration mineralogy in the geothermal system,at Svartsengi,Iceland

The bulk composition and mineralogy of hydrothermally altered tholeiite, along with the composition and speciation of fluid, have been determined for a well-defined alteration zone at 240°C and 110 bars at Svartsengi, Iceland. Mass balances between the geothermal fluid and altered tholeiite, relative to a seawater/fresh water mixture and unaltered tholeiite, indicate the overall reaction per 1000 cm³ is: 1325 gm plagioclase + 1228 gm pyroxene + 215 gm oxide-minerals break down to form 685 gm chlorite + 636 gm albite + 441 gm quartz + 249 gm epidote + 266 gm calcite + 201 gm oxide-minerals + 15 gm pyrite, requiring an influx of 123 gm CO₂, 10 gm H₂S and 4 gm Na₂O and a release of 57 gm SiO₂, 35 gm FeO, 21 gm CaO, 8 gm MgO and 4 gm K₂O.Principal reactions, deduced from textural evidence, include Na-Ca exchange in plagioclase, precipitation of quartz, calcite and anhydrite, and formation of chlorite and epidote by reactions between groundmass minerals and fluid.Thermodynamic analyses of authigenic minerals and downhole fluid indicate that the fluid maintains a state close to equilibrium with the secondary mineral phases chlorite, epidote, albite, quartz, calcite, prehnite, anhydrite, pyrite and magnetite, whereas remnant primary labradorite and augite are out of equilibrium with the fluid.Water/rock ratios for the system are determined under a variety of assumptions. However, the open nature of the system makes comparisons with experimental and theoretical closed system studies ambiguous.     

Flash flood susceptibility mapping using a novel deep learning model based on deep belief network,back propagation and genetic algorithm

Flash floods are responsible for loss of life and considerable property damage in many countries.Flood susceptibility maps contribute to flood risk reduction in areas that are prone to this hazard if appropriately used by landuse planners and emergency managers.The main objective of this study is to prepare an accurate flood susceptibility map for the Haraz watershed in Iran using a novel modeling approach(DBPGA) based on Deep Belief Network(DBN) with Back Propagation(BP) algorithm optimized by the Genetic Algorithm(GA).For this task, a database comprising ten conditioning factors and 194 flood locations was created using the One-R Attribute Evaluation(ORAE) technique.Various well-known machine learning and optimization algorithms were used as benchmarks to compare the prediction accuracy of the proposed model.Statistical metrics include sensitivity,specificity accuracy, root mean square error(RMSE), and area under the receiver operatic characteristic curve(AUC) were used to assess the validity of the proposed model.The result shows that the proposed model has the highest goodness-of-fit(AUC = 0.989) and prediction accuracy(AUC = 0.985), and based on the validation dataset it outperforms benchmark models including LR(0.885), LMT(0.934), BLR(0.936), ADT(0.976), NBT(0.974), REPTree(0.811), ANFIS-BAT(0.944), ANFIS-CA(0.921), ANFIS-IWO(0.939), ANFIS-ICA(0.947), and ANFIS-FA(0.917).We conclude that the DBPGA model is an excellent alternative tool for predicting flash flood susceptibility for other regions prone to flash floods.     

The Development of Laser Ablation ICP-MS and Calibration Strategies: Examples from the Analysis of Trace Elements in Volcanic Glass Shards and Sulfide Minerals

This contribution presents a review of the recent developments in laser ablation inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry. We describe the important developments which have occurred in the laser systems used, leading to a spatial resolution of around 20 (im, and give an overview of the major instrument developments which have affected the geological applications of laser ablation ICP-MS. We describe the calibration of laser ablation for the analysis of trace elements in two different matrices: volcanic glass shards and sulfide minerals. We show how single glass shards can be analysed using the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) glass certified reference materials for calibration and demonstrate the effect of using single spot analyses compared to rastering of the calibration sample. We show the importance of inter-shard variation and demonstrate that averaged single shard analyses produce data which compare well with bulk analyses. The calibration of the laser system for sulfide mineral analysis is discussed and two different strategies are proposed, one using spiked pressed powder pellets of sulfides and the other metal reference materials. We present conclusions and recommendations for the calibration of laser ablation ICP-MS instruments.