Predictability of large interannual Arctic sea-ice anomalies

In projections of twenty-first century climate, Arctic sea ice declines and at the same time exhibits strong interannual anomalies. Here, we investigate the potential to predict these strong sea-ice anomalies under a perfect-model assumption, using the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model in the same setup as in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We study two cases of strong negative sea-ice anomalies: a 5-year-long anomaly for present-day conditions, and a 10-year-long anomaly for conditions projected for the middle of the twenty-first century. We treat these anomalies in the CMIP5 projections as the truth, and use exactly the same model configuration for predictions of this synthetic truth. We start ensemble predictions at different times during the anomalies, considering lagged-perfect and sea-ice-assimilated initial conditions. We find that the onset and amplitude of the interannual anomalies are not predictable. However, the further deepening of the anomaly can be predicted for typically 1 year lead time if predictions start after the onset but before the maximal amplitude of the anomaly. The magnitude of an extremely low summer sea-ice minimum is hard to predict: the skill of the prediction ensemble is not better than a damped-persistence forecast for lead times of more than a few months, and is not better than a climatology forecast for lead times of two or more years. Predictions of the present-day anomaly are more skillful than predictions of the mid-century anomaly. Predictions using sea-ice-assimilated initial conditions are competitive with those using lagged-perfect initial conditions for lead times of a year or less, but yield degraded skill for longer lead times. The results presented here suggest that there is limited prospect of predicting the large interannual sea-ice anomalies expected to occur throughout the twenty-first century.     

Platinum-group elements distribution and spinel composition in podiform chromitites and associated rocks from the upper mantle section of the Neoproterozoic Bou Azzer ophiolite, Anti-Atlas, Morocco

The distribution of platinum-group elements (PGEs), together with spinel composition, of podiform chromitites and serpentinized peridotites were examined to elucidate the nature of the upper mantle of the Neoproterozoic Bou Azzer ophiolite, Anti-Atlas, Morocco. The mantle section is dominated by harzburgite with less abundant dunite. Chromitite pods are also found as small lenses not exceeding a few meters in size. Almost all primary silicates have been altered, and chromian spinel is the only primary mineral that survived alteration. Chromian spinel of chromitites is less affected by hydrothermal alteration than that of mantle peridotites. All chromitite samples of the Bou Azzer ophiolite display a steep negative slope of PGE spidergrams, being enriched in Os, Ir and Ru, and extremely depleted in Pt and Pd. Harzburgites and dunites usually have intermediate to low PGE contents showing more or less unfractionated PGE patterns with conspicuous positive anomalies of Ru and Rh. Two types of magnetite veins in serpentinized peridotite, type I (fibrous) and type II (octahedral), have relatively low PGE contents, displaying a generally positive slope from Os to Pd in the former type, and positive slope from Os to Rh then negative from Rh to Pd in the latter type. These magnetite patterns demonstrate their early and late hydrothermal origin, respectively. Chromian spinel composition of chromitites, dunites and harzburgites reflects their highly depleted nature with little variations; the Cr# is, on average, 0.71, 0.68 and 0.71, respectively. The TiO₂ content is extremely low in chromian spinels, <0.10, of all rock types. The strong PGE fractionation of podiform chromitites and the high-Cr, low-Ti character of spinel of all rock types imply that the chromitites of the Bou Azzer ophiolite were formed either from a high-degree partial melting of primitive mantle, or from melting of already depleted mantle peridotites. This kind of melting is most easily accomplished in the supra-subduction zone environment, indicating a genetic link with supra-subduction zone magma, such as high-Mg andesite or arc tholeiite. This is a general feature in the Neoproterozoic upper mantle.     

Design and Long-Term Monitoring of Tokyo International Airport Extension Project Constructed on Super-Soft Ground

To meet the increasing demand for air transportation, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport had carried out the offshore extension project at Tokyo International Airport (Haneda Airport). The airport should be constructed to be perfectly level, but the ground conditions with very thick layers of super soft dredged soils and need for reclamation made the task very difficult. Because of large amount of consolidation settlement, ground improvement by combined vertical drain method was applied to decrease residual and differential settlement after opening of new airport. This paper is aimed to introduce the design concept and method of ground improvement for this project. In addition the result of ground improvement is keeping satisfactory performance for operating airport confirmed by long-term monitoring for airport facilities.     

加拿大安大略省赫姆洛金矿的稳定同位素和痕量元素研究

1981年在加拿大安大略省发现的赫姆洛(Hemlo)金矿是目前北美最大的金矿之一,探明储量已超过600t。赫姆洛金矿在太古代晚期地层中沿层产出,矿体形状规则、规模巨大,矿石品位均匀,具有同生层状矿床的特征。但同时,它的元素组合和围岩蚀变又显示出浅成热液矿床的某些特点。所有这些特点,使得赫姆洛金矿成为一个有重大经济价值和科学研究意义的新型矿床。 我们自1985年以来,对赫姆洛金矿的微量元素和各种稳定同位素组成进行了详细的研究,为阐明矿床的成因和晚太古代水圈和大气圈的状况提供了一系列重要依据。     

Honey, I cooled the cods: Modelling the effect of temperature on the structure of Boreal/Arctic fish ecosystems

Historically colder regions of the North Atlantic had fisheries dominated by only a few fish species; principally cod and capelin. Possible population dynamic mechanisms that lead to such dominance are investigated by considering how a charmingly simple published multispecies model of the North Sea would react if the system operated at a lower temperature. The existing model equations were modified to describe temperature effects on growth, fecundity and recruitment and the model was rerun based on typical temperatures for the North Sea and a colder system. The results suggest that total fish biomass in the colder system increases but the community is more vulnerable to a given rate of fishing mortality. In the colder system, within species density dependence is reduced but relative predation rates are higher. Consequently, intermediate-sized species are vulnerable to relatively high levels of predation throughout their life history and tend to be excluded, leading to a system dominated by small and large species. The model helps to explain how temperature may govern coexistence and competitive exclusion in fish communities and accounts for the observed dominance of small and large species in Boreal/Arctic ecosystems.     

Metaphors and models: the ASR bubble in the Floridan aquifer

Studies at the intersection of cognitive science and linguistics have revealed the crucial role that metaphors play in shaping our thoughts about phenomena we cannot see. According to the domains interaction theory of cognition, a metaphoric expression sets up mappings between a target domain that we wish to understand and a familiar source domain. The source domain contains elements ("commonplaces") that we manipulate mentally, like parts of an analogue model, to illuminate the target domain. This paper applies the structure of domains interaction theory to analyze the dynamics of a metaphor in hydrogeology: the so-called bubble formed by water injected into an aquifer during aquifer storage and recovery (ASR). Of the four commonplaces of bubbles--(1) they are discrete; (2) they are geometrically simple; (3) they rise; and (4) they burst--we focus on the first two using both displacement and dispersion (tracer) models for both homogeneous and heterogeneous storage zones patterned from geological studies of the Suwannee Limestone of Sarasota County, Florida. The displacement model easily shows that "bottle brush" better represents the geometric complexity predicted from the known and inferred heterogeneity. There is virtually no difference, however, in the prediction of recovery efficiency using the dispersion model for a bubble (homogeneous flow zone) vs. bottle brush (heterogeneous flow zone). On the other hand, only the bottle brush reveals that unrecovered tracer is located preferentially in the low-permeability layers that lie adjacent to high-permeability channels in the flow zones.