Water and nutrient predictions in ungauged basins: set-up and evaluation of a model at the national scale

Abstract

A dynamic water quality model, HYPE, was applied to a large, data-sparse region to study whether reliable information on water quantity and water quality could be obtained for both gauged and ungauged waterbodies. The model (called S-HYPE) was set up for all of Sweden (～450 000 km²), divided into sub-basins with an average area of 28 km². Readily available national databases were used for physiographic data, emissions and agricultural practices, fixed values for representative years were used. Daily precipitation and temperature were used as the dynamic forcing of the model. Model evaluation was based on data from several hundred monitoring sites, of which approximately 90% had not been used in calibration on a daily scale. Results were evaluated using the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), correlation and relative errors: 92% of the spatial variation was explained for specific water discharge, and 88% and 59% for total nitrogen and total phosphorus concentrations, respectively. Day-to-day variations were modelled with satisfactory results for water discharge and the seasonal variation of nitrogen concentrations was also generally well captured. In 20 large, unregulated rivers the median NSE for water discharge was 0.84, and the corresponding number for 76 partly-regulated river basins was 0.52. In small basins, the NSE was typically above 0.6. These major achievements relative to previous similar experiments were ascribed to the step-wise calibration process using representative gauged basins and the use of a modelling concept, whereby coefficients are linked to physiographic variables rather than to specific sites.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Strömqvist, J., Arheimer, B., Dahné, J., Donnelly, C. and Lindström, G., 2012. Water and nutrient predictions in ungauged basins: set-up and evaluation of a model at the national scale. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (2), 229–247.     

Estimation of anisotropic hydraulic conductivity using geophysical data in a coastal aquifer of Karnataka,India

Estimation of hydraulic parameters is essential to understand the interaction between groundwater flow and seawater intrusion. Though several studies have addressed hydraulic parameter estimation, based on pumping tests as well as geophysical methods, not many studies have addressed the problem with clayey formations being present. In this study, a methodology is proposed to estimate anisotropic hydraulic conductivity and porosity values for the coastal aquifer with unconsolidated formations. For this purpose, the one-dimensional resistivity of the aquifer and the groundwater conductivity data are used to estimate porosity at discrete points. The hydraulic conductivity values are estimated by its mutual dependence with porosity and petrophysical parameters. From these estimated values, the bilinear relationship between hydraulic conductivity and aquifer resistivity is established based on the clay content of the sampled formation. The methodology is applied on a coastal aquifer along with the coastal Karnataka, India, which has significant clayey formations embedded in unconsolidated rock. The estimation of hydraulic conductivity values from the established correlations has a correlation coefficient of 0.83 with pumping test data, indicating good reliability of the methodology. The established correlations also enable the estimation of horizontal hydraulic conductivity on two-dimensional resistivity sections, which was not addressed by earlier studies. The inventive approach of using the established bilinear correlations at one-dimensional to two-dimensional resistivity sections is verified by the comparison method. The horizontal hydraulic conductivity agrees with previous findings from inverse modelling. Additionally, this study provides critical insights into the estimation of vertical hydraulic conductivity and an equation is formulated which relates vertical hydraulic conductivity with horizontal. Based on the approach presented, the anisotropic hydraulic conductivity of any type aquifer with embedded clayey formations can be estimated. The anisotropic hydraulic conductivity has the potential to be used as an important input to the groundwater models.     

Physical Characteristics of Kazan Minor Showers as Determined by Correlations with the Arecibo UHF Radar

In the northern hemisphere, the month of February is characterized by a lack of major meteor shower activity yet a number of weak minor showers are present as seen by the Kazan radar. Using the Feller transformation to obtain the distribution of true meteor velocities from the distribution of radial velocities enables the angle of incidence to be obtained for the single beam AO (Arecibo Observatory) data. Thus the loci of AO radiants become beam-centered circles on the sky and one can, with simple search routines, find where these circles intersect on radiants determined by other means. Including geocentric velocity as an additional search criterion, we have examined a set of February radiants obtained at Kazan for coincidence in position and velocity. Although some may be chance associations, only those events with probabilities of association > 0.5 have been kept. Roughly 90 of the Kazan showers have been verified in this way with mass, radius and density histograms derived from the AO results. By comparing these histograms with those of the “background” in which the minor showers are found, a qualitative scale of dynamical minor shower age can be formulated. Most of the showers are found outside the usual “apex” sporadic source areas where it is easiest to detect discrete showers with less confusion from the background.     

Five centuries of Stockholm winter/spring temperatures reconstructed from documentary evidence and instrumental observations

Historical documentary sources, reflecting different port activities in Stockholm, are utilised to derive a 500-year winter/spring temperature reconstruction for the region. These documentary sources reflect sea ice conditions in the harbour inlet and those series that overlap with the instrumental data correlate well with winter/spring temperatures. By refining dendroclimatological methods, the time-series were composited to a mean series and calibrated (1756–1841; r ²?=?66%) against Stockholm January–April temperatures. Strong verification was confirmed (1842–1892; r ²?=?60%; RE/CE?=?0.55). By including the instrumental data, the quantified (QUAN) reconstruction indicates that recent two decades have been the warmest period for the last 500 years. Coldest conditions occurred during the 16th/17th and early 19th centuries. An independent qualitative (QUAL) historical index was also derived for the Stockholm region. Comparison between QUAN and QUAL shows good coherence at inter-annual time-scales, but QUAL distinctly appears to lack low frequency information. Comparison is also made to other winter temperature based annually resolved records for the Baltic region. Between proxy coherence is generally good although it decreases going back in time with the 1500–1550 period being the weakest period—possibly reflecting data quality issues in the different reconstructions.     

Potential climate change impacts on the probability of wind damage in a south Swedish forest

We estimated how the possible changes in wind climate and state of the forest due to climate change may affect the probability of exceeding critical wind speeds expected to cause wind damage within a forest management unit located in Southern Sweden. The topography of the management unit was relatively gentle and the forests were dominated by Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.). We incorporated a model relating the site index (SI) to the site productivity into the forest projection model FTM. Using estimated changes in the net primary production (NPP) due to climate change and assuming a relative change in NPP equal to a relative change in the site productivity, we simulated possible future states of the forest under gradual adjustment of SI in response to climate change. We estimated changes in NPP by combining the boreal-adapted BIOMASS model with four regional climate change scenarios calculated using the RCAO model for the period 2071–2100 and two control period scenarios for the period 1961–1990. The modified WINDA model was used to calculate the probability of wind damage for individual forest stands in simulated future states of the forest. The climate change scenarios used represent non-extreme projections on a 100-year time scale in terms of global mean warming. A 15–40% increase in NPP was estimated to result from climate change until the period 2071–2100. Increasing sensitivity of the forest to wind was indicated when the management rules of today were applied. A greater proportion of the calculated change in probability of wind damage was due to changes in wind climate than to changes in the sensitivity of the forest to wind. While regional climate scenarios based on the HadAM3H general circulation model (GCM) indicated no change (SRES A2 emission scenario) or a slightly reduced (SRES B2 emission scenario) probability of wind damage, scenarios based on the ECHAM4/OPYC3 GCM indicated increased probability of wind damage. The assessment should, however, be reviewed as the simulation of forest growth under climate change as well as climate change scenarios are refined.     

How jet is formed: An organic geochemical approach using pyrolysis gas chromatography–mass spectrometry

Six samples, including wood and jet-like material from the same mummified wood specimens, together with two ‘true’ jet samples, were studied using pyrolysis gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (Py-GC/MS) to obtain detailed insight into the process leading to the formation of jet. Based on morphological and chemical data obtained, the process of “jetification” is characterised by a rapid change when mummified wood is re-exposed to sunlight and aerobic conditions. The transformation from mummified wood to jet is probably caused by relatively small chemical changes, leading to extra linkages between the phenolic compounds and causing the structure to become much more rigid, which is reflected in increased inertness of the material at the macroscopic level.     

Reassessment of historical sections from the Paleogene marine margin of the Congo Basin reveals an almost complete absence of Danian deposits

The early Paleogene is critical for understanding global biodiversity patterns in modern ecosystems. During this interval, Southern Hemisphere continents were largely characterized by isolation and faunal endemism following the breakup of Gondwana. Africa has been proposed as an important source area for the origin of several marine vertebrate groups but its Paleogene record is poorly sampled, especially from sub-Saharan Africa. To document the early Paleogene marine ecosystems of Central Africa, we revised the stratigraphic context of sedimentary deposits from three fossil-rich vertebrate localities: the Landana section in the Cabinda exclave(Angola), and the Manzadi and Bololo localities in western Democratic Republic of Congo.We provide more refined age constraints for these three localities based on invertebrate and vertebrate faunas, foraminiferal and dinoflagellate cyst assemblages, and carbon isotope records. We find an almost complete absence of Danian-aged rocks in the Landana section, contrary to prevailing interpretations over the last half a century(only the layer 1, at the base of the section, seems to be Danian). Refining the age of these Paleocene layers is crucial for analyzing fish evolution in a global framework, with implications for the early appearance of Scombridae(tunas and mackerels) and Tetraodontiformes(puffer fishes). The combination of vertebrate fossil records from Manzadi and Landana sections suggests important environmental changes around the K/Pg transition characterized by an important modification of the ichthyofauna. A small faunal shift may have occurred during the Selandian. More dramatic is the distinct decrease in overall richness that lasts from the Selandian to the Ypresian. The Lutetian of West Central Africa is characterized by the first appearance of numerous cartilaginous and bony fishes. Our analysis of the ichthyofauna moreover indicates two periods of faunal exchanges: one during the Paleocene, where Central Africa appears to have been a source for the European marine fauna, and another during the Eocene when Europe was the source of the Central Africa fauna. These data indicate that Central Africa has had connections with the Tethyian realm.     

Commuters’ non-linear response to time distances

Established analyses of labour market commuting are based on random choice models and gravity type models. In these models generalised transport costs are formulated as exponential or log-linear distance dependent functions. This paper presents empirical observations, which imply that time distances influence the commuting behaviour in a non-linear way, such that the time sensitivity is much lower for very short and long distances, whereas intermediate distances display a high time sensitivity. This is explained in a model that is parameterised and estimated. The results are important for understanding and predicting commuter behaviour. It also helps to delineate space, as in classical traditions, into local, intra-regional and extra-regional space.