Livelihood changes and evolution of upland ethnic communities driven by tourism: a case study in Guizhou Province,southwest China

As an effective livelihood approach to alleviate poverty without rural population migration, ethnic tourism has become the primary choice of economic development in ethnic areas worldwide in addition to traditional livelihood approaches. This article applies the theories of livelihood to study the community evolution driven by tourism livelihood and examine three mountainous tourism communities in different stages of tourist area life cycle. Drawing on the methods of GIS spatial analysis, semi-structured interviews and questionnaires, this article proposes a sustainable livelihood framework for ethnic tourism to explore the evolution of ethnic tourism communities by identifying changes in livelihood assets (natural, financial, social, cultural and human capitals) in the process of tourism development. The results show that the development of ethnic tourism has led to changes in the increase of building land, and the diversification of land use functions with a trend of shifting from meeting local villagers' living needs to satisfying tourists, income composition and uneven distribution of tourism income spatially. Ethnic tourism also led to the deterioration of traditional social management structure, collapse of neighboring relationship, the over- commercialization and staged authenticity of ethnic culture, as well as the gradual vanish of agricultural knowledge with a trend of increasing modern business knowledge and higher education. In addition, these changes, involving livelihood assets from natural, economic, human, social and cultural aspects are interrelated and interactive, which form new evolution characters of ethnic community. This study reveals the conflicts over livelihood approaches which have formed new vulnerabilities to impact on sustainable evolution of ethnic communities. This research provides implications for achieving the sustainable development of ethnic communities with the driving force of tourism livelihood.     

Local Spatiotemporal Modeling of House Prices: A Mixed Model Approach

The real estate market has long provided an active application area for spatial–temporal modeling and analysis and it is well known that house prices tend to be not only spatially but also temporally correlated. In the spatial dimension, nearby properties tend to have similar values because they share similar characteristics, but house prices tend to vary over space due to differences in these characteristics. In the temporal dimension, current house prices tend to be based on property values from previous years and in the spatial–temporal dimension, the properties on which current prices are based tend to be in close spatial proximity. To date, however, most research on house prices has adopted either a spatial perspective or a temporal one; relatively little effort has been devoted to situations where both spatial and temporal effects coexist. Using ten years of house price data in Fife, Scotland (2003–2012), this research applies a mixed model approach, semiparametric geographically weighted regression (GWR), to explore, model, and analyze the spatiotemporal variations in the relationships between house prices and associated determinants. The study demonstrates that the mixed modeling technique provides better results than standard approaches to predicting house prices by accounting for spatiotemporal relationships at both global and local scales.     

Ultimate Bending Capacity of Strain Hardening Steel Pipes

Based on Hencky’s total strain theory of plasticity, ultimate bending capacity of steel pipes can be determined analytically assuming an elastic-linear strain hardening material, the simplified analytical solution is proposed as well. Good agreement is observed when ultimate bending capacities obtained from analytical solutions are compared with experimental results from full-size tests of steel pipes. Parametric study conducted as part of this paper indicates that the strain hardening effect has significant influence on the ultimate bending capacity of steel pipes. It is shown that pipe considering strain hardening yields higher bending capacity than that of pipe assumed as elastic-perfectly plastic material. Thus, the ignorance of strain hardening effect, as commonly assumed in current codes, may underestimate the ultimate bending capacity of steel pipes. The solutions proposed in this paper are applicable in the design of offshore/onshore steel pipes, supports of offshore platforms and other tubular structural steel members.     

Correlation analysis between drought indices and terrestrial water storage from 2002 to 2015 in China

Drought monitoring is a key topic in environmental monitoring and assessment although there is still a need to determine the correlation between drought monitoring indices and remote sensing products. We analyzed the correlation between the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (sc_PDSI), the Standardized Precipitation Index and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and terrestrial water storage monitored through the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) on a monthly timescale from 2002 to 2015 in China. As a consequence of anomalies in the soil water budget, the highly significant correlation between the sc_PDSI and the GRACE satellite-observed terrestrial water storage suggested that these two datasets are the most suitable for use in monitoring droughts. In comparing the three drought indices, the sc_PDSI was introduced as a means of drought monitoring in the Yangtze, Pearl, Huaihe, Southeast and Songhua River Basins, whereas the SPEI was found to be more applicable to other major river basins, such as the Inland River Basin. These diverse spatial behaviors are caused by the differences between the hydrological droughts characterized by these three drought indices.     

高分辨率模式雷达回波预报能力分析

利用2018年7—8月GRAPES_3 km、东北短临(WRFRUC)高分辨率模式综合雷达回波预报数据和辽宁省SWAN雷达组合反射率(MCR)实况,基于邻域法FSS评分指数,分析模式在台风北上和副热带高压边缘暴雨过程中的雷达回波预报能力。结果表明:两家模式在不同降水过程中对小阈值雷达回波有较好的预报技巧,随着回波量级增大,模式预报FSS逐渐减小,雷达回波55 dBz时,FSS甚至为0。当邻域半径是3时,35 dBz以下的回波预报中GRAPES模式在台风北上暴雨中的预报技巧低于副热带高压边缘,35 dBz则相反。WRFRUC模式始终表现为台风北上暴雨中预报较好。当邻域半径9时,WRFRUC模式在台风暴雨中的FSS评分高于GRAPES模式,GRAPES模式在副热带高压暴雨中的FSS评分始终高于WRFRUC模式。GRAPES和WRFRUC模式的最大FSS评分技巧均出现在邻域半径是11时,分别为0.239和0.195。GRAPES模式中FSS评分在12 h逐小时预报中前3个时次较强,WRFRUC模式则表现为中间时次强,两头弱。     

区域性中心城市辐射力及其评价--以郑州市为例

文章以郑州市为例,主要研究了区域性中心城市辐射力指标体系,采用层次分析法对所研究指标进行了赋值。以此为基础,用裂点法对郑州与周边相邻、相关城市的不同城市要素相互作用的范围进行了分析。找出了郑州作为区域性中心城市的影响区域、发展优势和不足,并就提高郑州辐射力的途径、措施进行了研究。     

基于性能的抗震设计方法在剪力墙结构中的应用

本文对基于性能的抗震设计方法中最具有代表性的直接基于位移的设计方法在剪力墙结构中的应用进行了研究。采用结构非线性分析程序探讨了墙厚、混凝土强度等级、纵筋配筋率、钢筋级别、轴压比、墙长等因素对单肢剪力墙屈服位移的影响,从而对现有的屈服曲率计算公式进行了改进。另外将按顶点荷载作用下的屈服位移计算公式求出的屈服位移与实际倒三角形荷载作用下的剪力墙屈服位移进行了比较,,从而推导出倒三角形荷载作用下的屈服位移计算公式。     

陆表自然和人文要素相互作用——“全球变化及应对”重点专项研究进展

在国家重点研发计划支持下,项目提出了陆表不均一性检测和订正的新方法,解决了渐变型不均一性检测和订正的难题,构建了中国地表太阳辐射、气温、地温、风速和降水等参数均一化站点和格点数据集,修订了关于中国地表风速变化趋势、增温格局及其形成机制的结论。融合多源数据,构建并验证了千米级、流域级或县域级的电厂、人口、生物质能、取水量、氮排放、二氧化碳排放等影响自然系统的关键人文要素历史和未来预估数据集。构建了未来关键人文要素情景,研制了碳中和目标下甲烷和氧化亚氮排放情景和用于驱动全球模式的未来情景,预估了中国碳中和战略的实施对全球变暖的减缓作用,发现中国碳中和对远期和中期全球变暖的减缓作用显著。给出了中国各省份水体氮排放安全阈值及超越时间,阐明了中国粮食产量与氮施肥的关系,提出了在保障粮食安全的前提下减少水体氮排放的有效途径,指出重构城乡养分循环体系是同时保障粮食安全和恢复水质的必要途径。发现全球饱和水汽压差的年际变化与大气二氧化碳浓度上升速率的年际变化显著相关,阐明了饱和水汽压差变化在调控生态系统生产力中的重要角色以及多因素耦合作用在生态系统生产力变化中的复杂影响。建议更全面细致地评估中国各种碳中...     

The conformity of HI galaxies in ALFALFA-SDSS sample

The conformity effect,indicating the evolution of galaxies is related to its surrounding neighbor galaxies as far as a few Mpc,is an interesting phenomenon in the modeling of galaxy and evolution.Here we study the conformity effect of HI galaxies in a matched galaxy sample between SDSS DR7 and ALFALFA surveys.By checking the probability difference for the detected H i galaxies as a function of distance around a normal or an H i galaxy,we find that this effect is significant out to 5 Mpc.It also shows a dependence on the stellar mass of galaxies,with the strength the strongest in the stellar mass range of 10¹⁰*/M_⊙<10^10.5.However,when the sample is confined to central galaxies in groups with virial radii smaller than 1 Mpc,the 1-halo conformity signal is still evident,while the 2-halo conformity signal is reduced to a very weak amplitude.Our results confirm the previous study in the optical band that the 2-halo term is possibly caused by the bias effect in the sample selection.Furthermore,we confirm the existence of the 1-halo conformity discovered in the optical and radio band in previous investigations.Our results provide another viewpoint on the conformity effect and hope to shed light on the co-evolution of the galaxies and their neighbors in the current galaxy formation models.